For everyone who couldn’t make our daytime Zooms, and for those of you with any left-over or still-burning questions.
Find out more about Te Taura and Te Aho research funds here.
NOTE: EoIs for Te Taura close July 15. EOIs for Te Aho close September 15.
What is a rolling symposium? Three short background webinars, bringing you the latest in climate projections, drought resilience research and land-use science, culminating in an all-day event to generate evidence-based conversation around future drought policy.
Programme for the full-day event:
Register for the all-day event here:
Catch up on the three background videos on YouTube here:
Background information
Over the past few years, the Deep South Challenge, Resilience Challenge and Our Land and Water National Science Challenges, along with several other NZ funded science programmes, have funded research projects that focus on drought and its impacts.
Growing Kai Under Increasing Dry will bring together the latest in climate modelling and adaptation research with farmers, growers and policymakers to better understand how Aotearoa can adapt to our ‘new normal’.
With three background webinars prefacing the symposium, we hope the event itself will create a platform to understand the risks and devise potential solutions.
The capacity of communities to plan for and respond to adverse events plays a part in shaping the resilience within rural communities and helps determine the type of support they may need in recovery.
Recent ministerial briefing
Come and join us online or in person to be part of this future-focused conversation. Please note:
New research by the Deep South Challenge and Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, with the support of Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, finds a strong relationship between more intense future drought and drops in farm profit.
In the year 2100, our 10-year-old children will be 90 years old. Their children – our grandchildren – will be managing farms in a far more tricky climate than we have to negotiate today. Year on year drought is still uncommon in Aotearoa, giving farmers opportunities to recover – financially, mentally and environmentally. But uncontrolled climate change is likely to bring somewhat more severe and far more frequent drought.
This research draws on 70,000 tax returns and temperature and soil moisture data, to understand the historical relationship between local weather and farm profits in both the dairy and sheep+beef industries. Controlling for prices and farm management, the research shows a clear effect. Extrapolating on the clear relationship, future climate change scenarios were tested to understand how much future farm profit might be under pressure, due to reduced soil moisture and increased temperatures.
Under a high climate change scenario (RCP8.5) – the pathway representing little climate action and high economic growth – sheep and beef farmers could see a profit loss of up to 54% by the end of the century, subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Analysis suggests that sheep and beef farms are vulnerable to high temperatures as well as soil moisture loss, while dairy shows an unclear effect of high temperatures, but is clearly sensitive to soil moisture loss (according to this modelling).
Looking only at changes in soil moisture, both dairy and sheep and beef show a decrease in profit by 2100 (an average of 20% for dairy and 7% for sheep and beef).
A more moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) suggests – unsurprisingly – more moderate losses considering soil moisture changes alone.
Manaaki Whenua research co-lead, Dr Kendon Bell, notes that one potential use of these results is to better understand how climate change might encourage farmers and growers to implement adaptation measures, or even to change what they farm and where. Due to large capital investments, it’s difficult for farmers to change the way they use their land. And the creeping pace of climate change will not likely force land-use change in the near future. Yet this research suggests that land-use change should at least be on the cards in some places.
“However,” Kenny continues, “what’s important is the relative attractiveness of animal versus other land uses. To gain a full understanding of how climate change might affect land-use pressures, we require profit-weather functions for all relevant land uses, in addition to those provided here for dairy and sheep and beef.”
Kenny continues, “Given that animal agriculture is a major contributor to both climate change and water pollution, understanding the extent to which climate change might affect this baseline over time is important for policy considerations over the coming decades.”
“Understanding the scale of the expected impacts of climate change across all sectors is key for central government when considering future budgets for adaptation support. If, as a hypothetical example, the scale of expected net damages to agriculture was 1% of the expected net harm to human health, it would be difficult to justify putting 50% of central government’s adaptation budget into agriculture. However, these quantitative comparisons are not yet straightforward, because the underlying quantitative studies have not yet been executed across all sectors.”
Further analysis, led by Lynn Riggs of Motu Economic Policy and Research, examined the impact of past, present and future drought on employment. Overall, the relationship between drought and employment in New Zealand appears to be complicated, with soil moisture and temperature having different and sometimes offsetting effects within and across industries. Dairy shows the strongest correlation, with the relationship between monthly soil moisture and monthly employment consistently showing up as strong and positive.
In New Zealand, there is very little research about the implications of climate change for society using approaches that measure the historical relationship between weather conditions and economic and social outcomes. This research is among the first to do so. Rural communities may bear a large share of the burden of reducing emissions and our job here has been to try and understand, using real financial data, the size of the additional burden (or benefit) that climate change might impose.
ON Tuesday 18 May, at 11am, Kenny Bell will be presenting a zoom webinar about these results – part of an ongoing Rolling Symposium on Drought: “Growing Kai under Increasing Dry.” We invite interested journalists to first attend the webinar. Register via EventBrite here: https://www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/2-drought-and-the-changing-climate-farm-profits-and-community-resilience-registration-150644741477
In this webinar, researchers will look at what changes need to be made in the policy and decision making space.
This webinar investigates the effect the projected changes in climate might have on land use suitability and decision-making in the future – in particular what are the implications of future drought?
What will it mean for farmers and growers – what are the limitations and opportunities that may present themselves with this changing climate?
We will also explore how planning, policy, data and decision-making could be informed by mātauranga Māori and include social and cultural indicators of wellbeing.
Three short background webinars, bringing you the latest in climate projections, drought resilience research and land-use science, culminating in an all-day event to generate evidence-based conversation around future drought policy.
Registrations for all three webinars and the all-day event are now open:
In this webinar, researchers look at the social, economic and cultural impacts of drought in Aotearoa New Zealand.
The concept of ‘resilience’ has recently gained traction in a range of contexts. Its various interpretations and framings are now used to examine a variety of issues, particularly relating to the human dimensions of global change.
In Aotearoa, resilience concepts are used by researchers, policy-makers and practitioners, to prepare for, recover from, and better understand the impacts of climate variability and extremes. For the most part, resilience focuses on change: it includes the ability of a system to maintain its current state despite disturbances, its ability to adapt, and to transform. Resilience covers both stability and change, and often involves identifying what enables farms, individuals or industries to cope – or not – with the impact of a shock.
Three short background webinars, bringing you the latest in climate projections, drought resilience research and land-use science, culminating in an all-day event to generate evidence-based conversation around future drought policy.
Registrations for all three webinars and the all-day event are now open:
This webinar, the first of three in our Rolling Symposium on Drought and the Changing Climate, will cover the most recent drought projections. It will take you through how drought is modelled, will cover projections out to the end of this century, and will explain how the science has progressed.
The webinar will also cover the quickly changing science of extreme weather modelling. This form of climate modelling investigates the fraction exteme events (like drought) that can be attributed to climate change, and estimates how much climate change is costing us.
Information and projections like this form the basis of guidance and planning at both regional and national levels and provides an insight for farmers, growers and policy makers into a future of more severe drought.
Three short background webinars, bringing you the latest in climate projections, drought resilience research and land-use science, culminating in an all-day event to generate evidence-based conversation around future drought policy.
Registrations for all three webinars and the all-day event are now open:
The Deep South Challenge (DSC) welcomes the opportunity to make a submission on the Climate Change Commission’s (CCC) Draft Advice for Consultation. The DSC’s mission is to enable New Zealanders to anticipate, adapt, manage risk and thrive in a changing climate, and therefore our focus is on adaptation to climate change.
We would like to emphasise that adaptation needs to be considered alongside mitigation. Considering both together will help ensure that policy and investment decisions do not impede upon on Aotearoa’s ability to adapt to climate change and provide an opportunity for building resilience to climate change as we decarbonise the economy.
We note that the majority of the CCC’s advice is concerned with mitigation, but we welcome the limited recommendations around adaptation and would like to provide some further comments regarding these.
We strongly support the recommendation of avoiding “overshoot” in the emissions scenarios, as overshooting is expected to raise adaptation costs, and importantly make adaptation more challenging. We are unclear if the emission costs of adaptation have been considered in the emissions budget. While there are anticipated co-benefits, adaptation may also cause an initial increase in emissions e.g., from the construction of new infrastructure. Where this is the case it should be noted this requires further emission reductions from other sectors for the proposed budgets to be met.
Without effective mitigation in both Aotearoa and globally, adaptation becomes increasingly urgent, painful, and costly. DSC funded research starkly demonstrates the implications of high temperature increases across systems, communities and the economy. For example, $135 billion worth of buildings are potentially exposed to fluvial and pluvial flooding (Paulik et al. 2019). Thirty centimetres of sea level rise (foreseeable in the next 30 years) would expose $18.49 billion worth of buildings around New Zealand to coastal flooding, 2,000 km of roads, 112 km of railway tracks, 4,000 km of water pipelines, 1,600 km2 of agricultural land and 14 domestic / international airports would also be exposed (Paulik et al. 2020). This may lead to “insurance retreat”, where with a 1% probability of coastal inundation exposed homes in Wellington and Christchurch are expected to face a partial insurance retreat from 2030, with homes in similarly exposed locations in Auckland and Dunedin following only a few years later (Storey et al. 2020). Who bears this cost is yet to be decided.
Already, communities are struggling with their current exposure to extreme events such as flooding (e.g. Stephenson 2020). Other research demonstrates the inequalities already currently occurring in climate change adaptation (Ellis 2018). This threatens the notion of a “just transition”, exacerbates existing inequalities, and is only likely to increase as climate change affects more communities.
We support the enabling recommendation 2: To coordinate efforts to address climate change across Government, particularly a multi-agency appropriation which consolidates existing and future government funding for core climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. DSC research with local government and communities identified the need for centralised Government action on climate change (both adaptation and mitigation) (Barth and Vincent 2018). DSC research has identified the existence of “cascading impacts” of climate change that propagate throughout the economy and across sectors (Lawrence et al. 2020), which may be anticipated be reduced and/or better managed if there was a coordinated approach.
Similarly, we support Enabling Recommendation 4: Align legislation and policy to enable local government to make effective decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. DSC research has illustrated the contradictions and liabilities inherent in the current legislative environment, disempower local authorities from making effective long-term adaptation decisions (James et al. 2020.; Iorns Magallenes et al. 2019).
We note with respect to Necessary Action 4; Maximise the use of electricity as a low emissions fuel, that Aotearoa will need to become increasing dependent on renewable electricity. The DSC is supporting a research project examining the impact the climate change on the New Zealand energy system, as it is recognised that this is not well modelled across the range of IPCC future emission scenarios (led by Dr Jen Purdie, University of Otago). This project aims to model climate impacts on the entire energy system out to at least 2050, including climate projections; scenario changes to electricity demand from decarbonisation; and anticipated load changes from irrigation pumping, heating and air conditioning.
We emphasise the importance of considering adaptation in Necessary Action 10: To ensure that urban planning does not create greater exposure and vulnerability to infrastructure in future. DSC research highlights the ways that a changing climate and increasing severity and frequency of extremes will affect critical infrastructure (Hughes et al. 2019, 2020), including drinking water (Kamish et al. 2020).
DSC research (past and current) can provide insights into Necessary Action 11: Create options for alternative farming systems and practices. Completed projects include an analysis of capturing climate uncertainty in the construction of water storage for agricultural production (Wreford et al. under review), and an exploration of the suitability of land uses under climate change (Ausseil et al. 2019) – which is continuing in a second phase, co-funded with the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge. Other current projects include a transdisciplinary project examining the impacts of climate change, adaptation options, and the costs and timing of action in the dairy sector (led by Anita Wreford, Lincoln University), and a project developing adaptation planning and processes in the wine sector (led by Nick Cradock-Henry, Manaaki-Whenua Landcare Research).
In conclusion the Deep South Challenge is keen to continue collaborating with the Climate Change Commission. We invite you to look at our recently refreshed website and welcome the opportunity to discuss both the research outlined above and our wider portfolio of research.
In recent years, the policy landscape for climate adaptation in Aotearoa has shifted dramatically. There is also growing recognition that stakeholders and end users require methods and tools that help them make decisions despite uncertainty about the future.
Our mission is to enable New Zealanders to anticipate, adapt, manage risk and thrive in a changing climate. To date, our comprehensive research portfolio has helped us deliver on “anticipating” the nature and magnitude of the challenges ahead, and the urgency with which action needs to be taken.
We are now increasing our focus on the second part of our mission statement, and are asking for your research ideas as the first stage of a new Impacts and Implications funding round, “Living with Uncertainty.”
We recognise that, as a “climate adaptation” science challenge, it’s incumbent upon us to be adaptive! We are up for the challenge of changing, not just with our climate, but with the needs of our communities, in line with expert advice from adaptation researchers.
We are looking to fund projects that either:
This funding round will follow a two-stage process:
More information, including a very brief template for researchers to use when considering your research ideas, are all available at this section of our website here:
https://www.deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/funding-opportunities
Research ideas are due back with us well after the holiday period, on February 19, 2021.
Climate change is a slow-moving disaster that will affect all communities across Aotearoa. It might hit some of us this year, or in the next 10 years, or it might eventually take out a home we have deep historical attachment to.
Worsening coastal hazards are not yet fully reflected in homeowners’ decisions to purchase, develop or renovate coastal property. New Zealand is also still building new residential developments in climate-risky locations.
What does this mean for our house insurance?
Within our four largest cities, at least 10,000 houses currently sit within a 1-in-100-year coastal flood zone. Nationally, around 450,000 houses are within 1km of the coast. These homes are likely to be affected by more frequent and intense storms and by sea level rise. In this seminar, Belinda Storey (Climate Sigma) will take you through her much-anticipated research into “Climate change and the withdrawal of insurance.”
A recording of this seminar will be available on our YouTube channel in the days following this seminar. Please subscribe to stay up-to-date.
One of the key trends in domestic and international climate litigation is in trying to establish who is liable for taking (or not taking) adaptation measures.
There have been at least 19 court challenges in Aotearoa to council decisions on adaptation to sea level rise. Currently, councils have a lot of leeway in their approaches to climate hazard risks, including sea-level rise. Court action across the nation is testing the limits of council authority, and showing up gaps in the legislative and policy environment.
And even though leeway exists for councils, some of their options will incur larger future liability costs than others. Further, some councils – at least some of those involved in making adaptation decisions – appear to be unaware of the extent of their possible liability.
In this seminar, Catherine Iorns (Victoria University of Wellington) will take you through one aspect of her broad-ranging research into “Sea level rise, housing and insurance: Liability and compensation”.