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One of our key team members is wrapping up her work with us and moving on to a new challenge (this time with a lower case ‘c’). Lucy Jacob, manager of the Deep South Challenge for the past two and a half years, has secured a role as Oceans Specialist with the World Wildlife Foundation. In this Q&A, we asked Lucy about her time in the Challenge and her plans for the future.

The National Science Challenges are creatures with multiple heads, arms, legs and hearts. What has been the most challenging part of your role as Challenge Manager?

As you say, there are many bodies to satisfy in the Challenge. Keeping on top of the many moving parts, ensuring we meet routine deadlines, constantly striving to improve the way we do things, while still working strategically, has been the biggest challenge. It’s particularly tough, as everyone in the Challenge (including myself) works part time, and people are spread around the country (and in some cases, the world).

I believe in the vision of the National Science Challenges, and in being impact-driven, to ensure science is actually integrated into decision-making. Nevertheless, this is really hard to achieve! It has been wonderful to work with our evolving science leadership and engagement teams, and with researchers and organisations across New Zealand, to try to achieve our vision. I’ve seen real commitment to mission-led science across the National Science Challenges, which are growing in momentum. All this has made the Challenge an exciting thing to be a part of. I will miss the team hugely.

Is there one moment that stands for you as symbolising the Deep South Challenge?

The day that springs to my mind is when I attended a hui in Horowhenua to witness how one research team, funded through our Vision Matauranga programme, had worked with hāpu in this low-lying coastal community to identify their climate adaptation options. This research is truly innovative, in that it combines art, science, mātauranga Maori and landscape architecture. The team had cleaned up a series of disused dairy sheds, from where they presented their remarkable final exhibition. The community was present, and it was truly a privilege to attend. It was made even more remarkable when an ephemeral rainbow rose from the ground nearby.

We have since funded this team for the second phase of their research, which is working with the community to co-develop transition action plans.

After almost three years in the Deep South Challenge, tasked with the mission of supporting New Zealanders to adapt to our changing climate, how has your thinking changed about climate change or climate adaptation?

Prior to working with the Deep South Challenge, my experience of climate change came from working and living on coral reef islands. I was very aware of the risks of warming ocean temperatures and ocean acidification on coral reef habitats etc., and I’d worked a little with coastal communities susceptible to sea level rise.

But working in the Challenge has opened my eyes to the impacts and implications of climate change for urban communities, as well as to the challenge of adapting to an uncertain future while we lack a strong framework for doing so. This is an exciting time to be working in the climate change field, and as the role of the interim climate commission becomes clear, and the government moves forward on plans for a national risk assessment, it’s my hope that adaptation planning will become easier for those at the forefront (for example, coastal dwellers or local governments).

Your background is both in experimental psychology and in marine science – particularly Marine Protected Areas in the Pacific. And you’re returning to your field in your new role as Oceans Specialist with the World Wildlife Fund. Congratulations! What do you think you might bring from the Deep South Challenge into your new job?

My role with the Challenge has given me lots of transferable skills. For example, I now have a great understanding of the NZ science system and of how the multiple parts of government and science interact.

I’ve learnt a lot from the amazing people I’ve worked alongside, from our excellent science leads and engagement experts, to our Governance Group and Independent Science Panel. We have received consistently good advice on how to improve, which has also helped me build my skills and knowledge, including knowledge in earth system modelling, adaptation planning, kaupapa Māori principles, communications and much more!

On top of this, New Zealand is a relatively small place, and although my work in the Challenge hasn’t been much in or around the ocean, I have met lots of people I will keep in touch with in my new role.

Finally, you’ve got two gorgeous young kids. What are your fears or hopes for the world (local or global) they will inherit from their parent’s generation?

I am an optimist, and in some ways, I also think I’m in denial about what the future could hold for my children and grandchildren. I want to believe that they will be lucky enough to have the same experiences I have had.

I grew up with limitless fresh water to drink and bathe in. I’ve been around many oceans and rivers that have generally been healthy enough to support ecosystems and provide special recreational opportunities, although this is changing. My happy place (which is harder to get to now), is diving on a coral reef, schools of fish encircling me and sharks cruising by. It’s still possible to find these places today, but I’m not sure if this will be the case in 30 years’ time.

This is why I feel so passionate about taking my new job. My four year old is keen to come to work with me, as she’s decided she wants to pick up every single piece of plastic, to stop it from entering the ocean. I believe we can change the course we’re on, but that it requires everyone to swim in the same direction (this will make sense if you’ve seen Finding Nemo).

Even though she will be sorely missed, we wish Lucy every success in her new role. We’ll be recruiting for a new Challenge Manager within the next month.

Kia hiwa rā! We’re now seeking funding proposals for climate modelling and observations to support model development. This RfP builds on our Research Strategy, for projects that will begin in our second phase of research, from July 1, 2019:

Climate Modelling

The delivery of projections of New Zealand’s future climate is core to the Deep South Challenge. We make these projections through a series of linked models: the NZ Earth System Model (NZESM), the NZ Regional Climate Model, and hydrological modelling. To understand climate extremes and how they may change, we use large ensembles of climate models (for example, through the Weather@Home framework).

The Deep South Challenge has allocated $4,140,000 (ex GST) over a three-year period (July 1, 2019 – June, 30 2022) to continue delivering our core climate modelling needs. We’re specifically seeking proposals to collectively address the following research topics:

• Production of climate projections for New Zealand using the NZESM
• Research to continue the development of the NZESM
• Projections of the impact of climate change on New Zealand’s hydrological cycle
• Large ensemble modelling to understand changes in climate extremes

Observations for Model Development

In Phase 1, the Deep South Challenge enabled the collection of significant observational datasets, to support both a greater understanding of climate processes and the integration of these understandings into the NZESM. We will now support further research which takes advantage of these datasets, and others collected by international research programmes (for example, satellite datasets). Research funded out of this RfP will increase our understanding of climate processes and support the development of the NZESM.

The Deep South Challenge has allocated $600,000 (ex GST) to fund two to three projects, for a one-year period, from July 1, 2019. We expect these projects will build on Phase 1 research, in the following areas:

• Sea ice
• Clouds and aerosols
• Ocean processes

Submit your Proposal by Friday March 15, 2019

Find out more about this Funding Round at this page of our website. You will also find:

• the full RfP form
• the Funding Proposal form
• Guidance to help you complete the form
• Template Budget and CV documents you’ll need to finish your application.

We encourage you to revisit our Research Strategy here.

Revisit our current or concluded climate modelling and processes & observations research projects.
 

Submit your application by Friday 15 March 2019, by emailing Lucy Jacob: [email protected]

Facing the faraway threat of sea-level rise, responses range from, “Your place, your problem!”, to “Don’t worry, the government will take care of it.” But unless we consider the issue and respond ethically, it’s very likely that the risks of sea-level rise will not be shouldered fairly.

Research recently concluded in the Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate has found that without a new legal framework to deal with sea-level rise, based on a broad social consensus, the risk will be transferred from the least to the most vulnerable.

The research report, How should the risks of sea-level rise be shared?, by Elisabeth Ellis from the University of Otago, addresses a key question that emerged from a Deep South Dialogue between insurance companies and researchers: On a principled level, how should the risks of sea level rise be distributed between individuals, insurance, local and central government? Should we choose to view responsibility as individual or collective? And either way, which approach delivers the best and fairest outcomes?

“If we stick with the status quo,” Ellis says, “the way we adjust to sea level rise will exacerbate existing inequality. Nobody in New Zealand wants that,” she continues. “They want policy to be in line with consensus ethical values. They want the government to do what people think is right.”

Ellis and her research team considered two main situations: existing communities that need protection against new or escalating risks, and new, obviously risky developments.

Within our current framework, for existing communities such as low-lying Petone or South Dunedin, “individual members of our most vulnerable communities will bear the burden of risks they could not have foreseen.”

But for new developments, “the government – that is, effectively, everyone – will be expected to cover losses for development that is already predictably risky.”

Ellis and her research team found that, “The most important immediate step New Zealand can take toward an ethically robust sea-level rise policy is to bring certainty and consistency into the legislative framework.” Central government should resource adaptation to sea-level rise nationwide, so that community resilience does not vary with the ratepayers’ ability to pay. And at a local level, the public should be engaged “as early and deeply as possible” in these important decisions about their lives.

The report makes three key recommendations:

• New Zealand must bring certainty and consistency to the regulatory framework governing adaptation policy, in order to end the “collective action” problem and the transfer of risk to the most vulnerable.
• Adaptation funding must address both spatial and temporal inequalities, so that we don’t transfer risk to the most vulnerable, whether that vulnerability is due to ratepayer capacity, membership in future generations, or some other factor.
• Policy pathways planning must include regular, ethical evaluation of both processes and outcomes. Monitoring is necessary to prevent unintended consequences of otherwise egalitarian and inclusive procedures, such as the regional loss of accessible beaches due to uncoordinated local engineering solutions.

Ellis also noted that research gaps remain and must be filled. Given the disproportionate stake members of younger generations have in the success of climate change adaptation policies, it is critical to engage young people in the policymaking process: How can the New Zealand climate adaptation policy process engage more substantially with young people?

Finally, while Ellis’s research focussed on the general, consensus ethical values of equality and agency, more research is needed in two ethical values specific to New Zealand. First, What do New Zealanders think about ethical tradeoffs, like the tradeoff between solidarity and moral hazard, and how are their ethical views different from people in other places? And second, How are New Zealanders’ views on the ethics of climate change adaptation policy changing as they themselves experience sea-level rise and its consequences? For more details and the final report, visit the project page here.

In the specialised world of New Zealand climate modelling, contributing to the Unified Model, run by the UK Met Office, is the ultimate success story.

New Zealand researchers have recently contributed two such “tickets” to improve the Unified Model code, and are in the process of contributing two more, an unprecedented success from the smallest country in the UK Met Office club.  

We spoke to NIWA researchers Fraser Dennison and Olaf Morgenstern about what this means both for global climate modelling and for New Zealand’s ability to better predict our “local” southern ocean climate.

First things first, what is a “ticket,” and why are we so excited about it?

Fraser: A “ticket” refers to any incremental change to the UK’s Unified Model. Any change to the model code – from the fixing of a minor bug to a major change in the model science – has a ticket attached, in order to keep track of the changes and for quality control. For significant scientific changes (such as our work), a ticket includes a description of the change, some evidence from model test runs illustrating the impact of the change, and a checklist to make sure the change doesn’t unintentionally break another aspect of the model.

Olaf: Technically, the Unified Model is the name for the atmosphere component of our model. NIWA has been using it for 20 years – under licence from the UK Met Office, for weather forecasting and climate studies. These days, the United Model is supported by a consortium of six “tier-1” member states (represented by meteorological services or research institutes) and a couple of “tier-2” players like the US Air Force. As a rule, all tier-1 members (including New Zealand) should contribute to model development, but in practice almost all model development has occurred in Britain. So New Zealand’s recent contribution is a little out of the ordinary.

Other countries in the club include South Korea, India, South Africa and Australia. Their level of contribution doesn’t necessarily relate to their size. Australia, for example, has a lot more Unified Model users than us, but their contribution to its development isn’t proportionally bigger than ours, because they focus on developing their own model, which requires a large effort to sustain.

The UK Met Office, which leads and coordinates this global collaboration effort, is forever trying to increase the value of the partnership to all its users. We in New Zealand don’t aim to have our own, fully independent model, which means we can focus more on contributing improvements. This gives us a disproportionate standing in the consortium. We’re targeting our model development efforts in areas that are critical to climate projections for New Zealand: Southern Ocean clouds, Antarctic ozone depletion, Antarctic bottom-water formation and sea ice. And yes, we’re making progress in all of these areas.

For a ticket to be accepted, it has to meet a range of criteria, including:

• Scientific suitability. Does the science stack up? Is it beneficial, or at least neutral, in all configurations of the model (which cover both weather and climate modelling)?
• Technical suitability. Even if a change is scientifically desirable, is it too expensive to run? In this case, it may be accepted, but won’t necessarily be active in operational versions.

Why is it so important for New Zealand to participate in the international global climate modelling community?

Olaf: Generally speaking, all the low-hanging fruit in climate modelling have been picked. Model improvement is becoming ever more complex and demands a bigger and bigger effort. Against this backdrop, the UK Met Office decided some time ago to turn the Unified Model into a multi-institutional and international research collaboration as the model had outgrown their own resources. The collaboration gives us an opportunity to get involved in climate modelling and to pursue our own, unique research agenda, without meeting the size requirements that would otherwise be prohibitive. For the Deep South Challenge, it means we can live up to our ambition to produce climate simulations that are better than what we’ve got at the moment. This is only possible because we are in this international partnership.  

Fraser: The goal of the stratospheric chemistry project is to improve the  simulation of ozone in global climate models – which we’ve been doing successfully. This is important globally, but it’s most important in the Southern Hemisphere, where the “ozone hole” plays a large role in controlling the climate. Even though ozone depletion occurs up in the stratosphere, it has effects (via complicated atmospheric processes) on surface climate in Antarctica and around the “mid-latitudes” – that is, Australia, New Zealand and South America. In New Zealand, for example, you can link stratospheric ozone depletion with less rainfall along the west coast.

Olaf: Overall, this collaboration means that our own NZ Earth System Model actually remains very closely tied to the UK Earth System Model. Sometimes, for Deep South Challenge purposes, we may choose to use a model configuration that differs in some way from the UKESM, but these differences are superficial. It’s important to understand our relationship with the global modelling effort. We’re not going it alone, and that’s great – for New Zealand, and for the international community.

Olaf and Fraser would also like to acknowledge NIWA’s Vidya Varma, who is very active in model development.

Interview by Lorraine Taylor.

A new report by the Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate, explores what we need to know now, in order to adapt to the drought conditions likely under future climate change.

Drought already impacts a wide range of activities in Aotearoa, including urban water, primary production and electricity generation. It also has significant cultural impacts across communities. Treasury estimated recently that droughts rank number one for climate change-related costs.

Although New Zealand has historically been “water-rich”, the Drought and Climate Change Adaptation: Impacts and Projections report suggests that New Zealand is not well-prepared to cope with a future involving more drought in some areas. Future drought may well have the single most significant future impact on the New Zealand economy.

The report takes a people-centred view of the impacts of droughts and identifies several top priority research questions, one of which has already developed into a research project led by Wageed Kamish from Tonkin + Taylor.

The project seeks to understand the future of drought for New Zealand as our climate changes. It’s a big task, but one Kamish thinks it is achievable: “We acknowledge that one project may not provide all of the answers. However, by adopting a simpler methodology, we’ll have wider spatial coverage, while still being able to quantify the risk-of-failure of water supply systems in New Zealand. NIWA, our project partner, has already completed a considerable amount of work on climate change projections and these will provide a good platform from which to start.”

“Although it is true,” Kamish continues, “that farmers and rural communities normally experience the full effects of a drought, we don’t have to look much further than the recent Day Zero scenario in Cape Town (South Africa) to realise that urban areas can also be affected by droughts.” He says, “As climate changes into the future, water supply systems will have to be adapted accordingly, which may include new sources, new technologies, increased storage capacity and better management of water usage. In parallel, we need to carefully manage the quality of existing and potential sources now, so as not to jeopardise them for future use.  The primary key to this is that we adapt our water systems well enough in advance to avoid a Day Zero scenario. Adaptation may take several years, so in many cases the planning process needs to start right now.”

The project will also work closely with stakeholders, particularly regional councils. Kamish explains: “Having an appropriately constituted stakeholder reference group will also help to produce useful outcomes for regional councils, who will benefit the most from this research.”

The Drought and Climate Change Adaptation: Impacts and Projections report was produced as a result of a Deep South Dialogue, run by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. The Dialogue brought together key researchers and sector representatives to map current knowledge about how drought will impact New Zealand as our climate changes, and to identify critical knowledge gaps that must be filled if we are to successfully adapt to our changing climate.

For example, the report suggests we need to better understand the likely incidence of multi-regional drought, and the likely nationwide changes in drought incidence. It suggests we need to explore how future droughts, in the context of a changing climate, might affect future water supply and demand (particularly for the local food production sector, which competes for water with other users).

The report states we need to know more about New Zealand’s level of risk in relation to drinking water availability (both in urban and rural areas), as well as about the impact of drought on vulnerable communities (for example, how drought might affect labour patterns or impact residential house prices or land values). It suggests we need more research into how changing drought patterns might affect energy production and consumption.

The report is now available to read on the Motu website.

Check out some media coverage of this report:

• New Zealand is unprepared for more frequent drought, Stuff NZ
• Report: Climate change already a global health emergency, NZ Herald
• Drought under climate change: What Kiwis need to know now, NZ Herald

The Deep South Challenge is proud to share our Future Strategy for 2019–2024. This strategy builds on our first five years of research (2014–2019) and incorporates input from researchers, partners, stakeholders and advisory groups. 

To coincide with the announcement about continued National Science Challenge funding, by Minister Megan Woods, we are very pleased to publicly release our future research strategy.

At this page of our website, we invite you to:

• Take a visual tour of our Future Strategy, as illustrated in our new Challenge infographic
• Download the infographic as a poster (soon to be available in printed form)
• Watch a video of our online webinar in which the Challenge Director and Science Leadership Team outlined our future research themes and key partner and stakeholder communities
• Read a summary of the strategy and access the full strategy, in PDF form
• Take note of the overall process and timeline for commissioning research 
• Find answers to FAQs – mainly from the research community – about our Future Strategy.

New Zealand is projected to warm by 1-4°C during the 21st century. This warming will melt our frozen water resources – our snow, ice and glaciers. However, the scale and timing of changes to our meltwater aren’t clear. We need improved water projections for the development of robust climate adaptation policy. With Andrew Mackintosh (Victoria University of Wellington) and Jono Conway (Bodeker Scientific).

New Zealand is projected to warm by 1-4°C during the 21st century. This warming will melt our frozen water resources – our snow, ice and glaciers. However, the scale and timing of this melt is not clear. 

Mountain rivers in both the North and South Islands of New Zealand feed our largest hydro-electric power schemes, and provide critical water for irrigation, especially during drought. Melting snow and ice may also cause increased flooding.

The aim of this research project, affectionately nicknamed “The Icey Project,” is to make projections about how runoff from New Zealand’s glaciers and seasonal snow will change into the future. The research team is also engaging with iwi, industry representatives and local authorities to determine the specific needs of communities that use water. This data is crucial for decision makers in government, communities and industry. This research project brings together, for the first time, New Zealand’s leading snow and glacier scientists (read about the full research team at our website, here). Professor Andrew Mackintosh’s research focuses on understanding how glaciers and ice sheets behave and interact with the global climate system, using a physics-based approach. He leads the Glacier Research Group at the Antarctic Research Centre.

Physical hubs: 

• NIWA Wellington: Conference Room
• NIWA Christchurch: Terra Nova Room
• Victoria University of  Wellington: Room MYLT 101
• University of Canterbury: Kauri Room, Puaka James Hight Building
• University of Otago: Room 229 Science III Building

Please note, all visitors to NIWA must sign in on arrival.

We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring friends and colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub.

Email: [email protected]

A pre-conference workshop at the 8th Biennniel International Indigenous Research Conference: Innovating Mātauranga in the National Science Challenges: Collaborating in and Across National Science Challenges through kaupapa Māori research programmes.

Sponsored by the National Science Challenges, this workshop will provide an opportunity to hear from kaupapa Māori researchers across the NSCs, and to explore the potential for collaboration between NSCs.

This event will be chaired by Jessica Hutchings from Building Better Homes Towns and Cities (BBHTC).

Today, each of the eleven National Science Challenges learned we have been successful in securing funding for a further five years of research. The Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate successfully bid for $27.1M, ensuring we can deliver on our mission of supporting New Zealanders to anticipate, adapt, manage risk and thrive in a changing climate.

In a statement today, Minister Woods said, “I’m delighted to see that the Challenges are fundamentally changing the culture of how science is being undertaken in New Zealand. The Challenges bring our top scientists and researchers together to work collaboratively, to work across disciplines, and to co-develop science with a broad range of stakeholders and Māori – something that we are truly leading the world in.” 

Responding to the news, Challenge Director Mike Williams said, “While we were confident of being funded again, this announcement is of course something to be celebrated. We have made so much progress in our first five years, and have established strong relationships across the public and private sectors, and with Māori communities. Our research is delivering the data and solutions our key communities need to begin making decisions about how they might adapt to climate change. 

“We particularly want to congratulate our researchers,” Mike said, “whose work has been recognised for its high quality and ambitious reach in supporting New Zealand to prepare for the future ahead of us. MBIE particularly highlighted the success of our Vision Mātauranga projects and noted our Challenge-wide engagement efforts, ‘which appear inclusive and courageous in the sense that they allow the Challenge to open and sustain potentially difficult societal conversations.'”

We extend our thanks to our Governing Board, our Independent Science Panel and our Kāhui Māori, who have worked hard behind the scenes to ensure the Deep South Challenge continues to maximise our potential within a tightly focussed work programme. We’re also pleased to be able to share our comprehensive Future Strategy for our second phase of research (July 2019–June 2024). To coincide with this announcement, we’re publicly launching our comprehensive Future Strategy, which sets out our research pathway for the next five years.

Current research suggests that climate change is likely to have significant impacts on New Zealand’s tourism sector, an important and valuable industry for New Zealand.

How can people involved in tourism manage risks to the sector? What steps should the government and the tourism sector take to respond and adapt to climate change threats?

As part of a Deep South Challenge research project Culture and Climate Change, a team of University of Waikato researchers is organising a citizen panel, bringing together climate scientists, social scientists and policy makers, along with those at the frontlines of the tourism industry. Together, we will be crafting an action plan for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector.

If you have an interest in managing risk in New Zealand’s tourism industry, we invite you to participate. You will be helping to shape policies that balance economic and environmental interests and supporting our tourism sector to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.

Places are limited. Registration essential: please register early to avoid disappointment. 

Email the Citizen Panel administrator: [email protected].
Check out the project at: www.deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/projects/culture-climate-change

This is a free event with morning tea and lunch provided.