The Deep South National Science Challenge today announced funding totalling approximately $2 million for five new research projects to help New Zealanders better understand their future climate.
The funding is part of the Deep South National Science Challenge which is tasked with enabling New Zealanders to adapt, manage risk and thrive in a changing climate.
This funding round is focused on the potential impacts and implications of climate change for New Zealand to support planning and decision-making around extreme weather events, drought, changes in typical weather patterns and sea level rise.
Challenge director Dr Mike Williams said it was crucial that New Zealand was adaptable and resilient in the face of climate change.
“The new research projects that the Challenge has funded will help us understand how climate change will affect New Zealanders, for example, by understanding future changes in land use and water availability”
Central to the Challenge is strengthening the links and interactions with the New Zealand Earth System Model. This world-class numerical model will simulate current climate and make projections of future climates with different scenarios of future global greenhouse gas emissions.
Ultimately the Deep South Challenge will help advance understanding of Southern Hemisphere influences on the global climate and give New Zealanders a greater level of certainty in the face of a changing climate.
While the projects are funded by the Deep South Challenge, they are undertaken by researchers across a range of institutions including Victoria University, University of Otago, NIWA, SCION and Landcare Research.
These projects will be delivered alongside the Engagement and Vision Mātauranga programmes that will connect the science to the experiences, needs, and decision-making processes of New Zealanders.
Dr Williams said the new projects represent the development of the final part of the Challenge, the Impacts and Implications Programme.
“We are at an exciting point in the development of the Challenge and are looking forward to seeing these projects start. This work will look at some of the climate related impacts on essential resources and are key components in setting future priorities.”
The Deep South National Science Challenge is one of 11 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment-funded initiatives aimed at taking a more strategic and collaborative approach to science investment.
As New Zealand’s Scott Base celebrates 60 years of science on ice, Veronika Meduna writes for The Spinoff looking at one of Antarctica’s most puzzling features – the wayward behaviour of sea ice around the continent. Her article features a Deep South Challenge researchers, and the work they are doing to understand the physics of the sea ice.
Every southern winter, Antarctica doubles in size. As the sun sets on the continent, the surface of the ocean around it freezes, kicking off the world’s most spectacular seasonal transformation. By spring, this apron of ice begins to break up again and by this time of the year, it largely retreats back to the coast.
For nearly four decades, as long as satellites have been watching these growth-collapse cycles from space, Antarctica’s sea ice has, on average, been growing further out from the continent, bucking the trend of vanishing sea ice seen in the Arctic and baffling scientists. Then, this season, everything changed.
During September and October 2016, in the hottest year on record globally and in New Zealand, both poles showed record low levels of sea ice, with millions of square kilometres of ice missing when compared with historic average values. Even in the Arctic, which has lost 40 per cent of sea ice since the 1980s and where this most recent development could be understood as an acceleration of an existing trend, the degree of sea ice loss is troubling scientists. In Antarctica, which saw a 4 per cent growth of sea ice up until 2014, this is exceptional.
Radio-carbon researcher Jocelyn Turnbull from GNS science outlines how her research informs the New Zealand Earth System Model.
Jocelyn: We all know that it comes from burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), which produce carbon dioxide, which goes into the atmosphere, which makes the world warmer. What you may not know is that of the carbon dioxide we produce from fossil fuels, only about half stays in the atmosphere. This has been remarkably consistent since the start of the industrial revolution – each year, only about half the carbon dioxide we produce stays in the atmosphere, even as the actual amount of carbon dioxide we produce keeps increasing each year.
So where does the other half go? We know that it isn’t escaping into space, so it must be going into the land or into the oceans, or both. The answer is that Planet Earth is doing us a massive favour, or perhaps just trying to save herself, by taking up that carbon dioxide into both land and oceans. The million dollar question is what drives the uptake of carbon into these sinks, and how might that change in the future? Will these sinks “fill up”, causing a massive acceleration of global warming? Or by learning how they work, can we perhaps help these sinks to take up even more carbon and reduce global warming?
It turns out that the Southern Ocean is the most important of these “carbon sinks”, taking up by far the most carbon dioxide of any region of the world. But we scientists are in the midst of an argument about this. As the climate has warmed, the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (the roaring forties and furious fifties that we Kiwis know so well) have increased. Research based on measurements of carbon dioxide over the Southern Ocean says that the increase in the westerly winds has caused the Southern Ocean to do a poorer job of removing carbon from the atmosphere. Other studies based on model simulations of ocean processes give an opposite answer; that the Southern Ocean has been getting better at taking up carbon. The problem is that we just don’t have enough measurements in the Southern Ocean or the atmosphere above it, because as you might have noticed, the Southern Ocean is the least populated part of the world, and it’s expensive and difficult to make measurements there.
We are embarking on a new project between GNS Science and NIWA, funded by the Deep South National Science Challenge and a Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden grant. We collect air samples from Arrival Heights in Antarctica, Baring Head in Wellington, on ships travelling between New Zealand and Antarctica, and tree rings from New Zealand’s Sub-Antarctic islands to make a suite of new measurements and model simulations over the Southern Ocean and resolve the argument – is the Southern Ocean carbon sink sinking or swimming?
“NeSI is providing the supercomputing infrastructure on which we are producing climate simulations, both globally and using a regional climate model. You cannot operate an Earth System Model without a supercomputer.”
Climate change is widely seen as a leading problem of our times. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its 2013 Assessment Report, states that “human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.” The impressive ability of climate models to capture many aspects of the climate system has made them the cornerstone of all IPCC assessment reports; they are widely used to quantify the human influence on climate. However, the Earth is a highly complex system, and there remain numerous challenges to improving climate models. Three competing tensions act to increase the computational cost of running a climate model: Firstly, various processes are simplified or absent in models; addressing this requires us to increase the complexity of models. Secondly, the representation of climate usually improves with improved resolution, so there is a tendency to operate these models at as high a resolution as possible. Thirdly, climate is subject to an element of chaos. Therefore large ensembles of simulations are needed to accurately represent the most likely climate evolution and particularly extreme events such as severe storms, floods, or heat waves. For these three reasons, climate modellers often encounter limitations imposed by the computational resource at their disposal, and climate modelling can be the main motivation for upgrading ageing computing infrastructure.
Hei ngā maunga, hei ngā reo, hei ngā iwi, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tātou katoa. Tēnā koutou i ō tātou aituā maha e hinga atu nā, e takoto mai rā i ō tātou marae. Koutou te hunga para i te huarahi, haere koutou. Hoki atu ki te okiokinga mō te tangata i te wāhi ngaro. Tātou e takatū tonu nei hei urupā mō rātou, tēnā anō tātou katoa.
Tēnei mātou a Taihoro Nukurangi, a NIWA e korihi nei, e mihi kau atu ki ngā tōpito e whā, ki ngā tini kārangatanga maha, ki ngā whare wānanga otiiā ngā wāhi mahi rangahau puta noa i te motu.
Nau mai, haere mai ki tō tātou kaupapa, e kiiā nei ko te `Komata o te tonga’, me kī `Deep South’, tētehi o Ngā Wero Pūtaiao-ā-motu. Ko tōna kaupapa matua, ko te wāhanga Pūnaha Hihiko e hāngai pū tonu ki ngā rerekētanga o te āhuarangi me ōna tikanga katoa. Heoti anō rā, he pānui tēnei ki a koutou, he pūtea e wātea ana mō te hunga mātanga rangahau Māori. Nō reira pānuihia mai ngā whakamārama e whai ake nei.
Request for proposals – second funding round
The Vision Mātauranga science programme, as part of the Deep South National Science Challenge, is pleased to announce the opening of its second funding round. Research projects are sought that will contribute substantive and transformative outcomes for Māori and wider Aotearoa/New Zealand.
This science programme gives effect to the Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Vision Mātauranga Policy through strategic planning and research. Project proposals will be built around the four research themes identified in the Deep South Challenge Research and Business Plan.
Theme 2: Exploring adaptation options for Māori communities (rural and urban)
Theme 3: Assistance to Māori businesses to aid decision-making and long-term sustainability
Theme 4: Products, services and systems derived from mātauranga Māori*
* Includes: Te reo Māori, tikanga Māori and new technologies
Funding and duration
Potential projects will be funded up to a maximum of $250k. It is anticipated that successful applicants will commence their projects on 1 July 2017 or as soon as practicable thereafter, for a period of up to 24 months.
Applications will need to complete the first three documents as listed below. The fourth document is provided to demonstrate how projects will be assessed. Please pass on this information to other investigators involved in your project. For information on previously funded Vision Mātauranga science projects round please refer Vision Mātauranga science projects.
Proposals are due by Thursday 30 March 2017 at 5.00pm.
Please submit your proposal to the Deep South Challenge Manager – Lucy Jacob ([email protected]).
Proposals received after the closing date will not be accepted.
All proposals will be reviewed by the Kāhui Māori, the Science Leadership Team and the Independent Science Panel prior to the Deep South Challenge Director recommending projects for funding to the Deep South Board for approval.
The following information sets out these indicative processes and timelines. Note these times are New Zealand Standard Time. We reserve the right to alter the timeline if required.
1 February – Board approves Vision Mātauranga Timeline
8 February – Vision Mātauranga RfP released
30 March – Project Proposals Due
3 – 6 April – Project Reviews by Kāhui Maori
10 – 13 April – Project Reviews by Science Leadership Team
17 – 21 April – Project Reviews by the Independent Science Panel
24 – 28 April – Director provides funding recommendations to Governance Board
4 May – Board considers project recommendations and approves funding
10 May – Director informs Project Leaders and contracting commences
1 July – Projects commence
For more information
For more information pertaining to this RfP please contact the Science Leader Vision Mātauranga Darren-Ngaru King ([email protected] 09 375 2050) or the Challenge Director Mike Williams ([email protected] 04 386 0389).
University of Canterbury glaciologist Dr Wolfgang Rack is leading the world’s first EM-bird measurement of sea-ice thickness, towed by a 75-year-old fixed-wing aircraft in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica.
The Icetronauts project is being conducted as part of the New Zealand Government’s Deep South National Science Challenge for targeted observations of earth system variables. Our aim is to explore how much sea water is freezing in the Southern ocean every year and how important it is to the global climate, Dr Rack says.
“Sea-ice thickness is the biggest unknown in cryosphere research, because it is so hard to measure. It amazes me how little we know about it, despite its significance for global climate,” he says. “The EM-bird is the only instrument which can measure the thickness of sea ice remotely.”
The ‘EM’ stands for ElectroMagnetic induction. It is a state-of-the-art technology to remotely measure ice thickness, and it works similar to an induction cook top, Dr Rack says.
“Because sea ice is salty, conventional radar cannot measure thickness, but the EM instrument can, although it needs to be operated close to the surface.”
For the measurements, the research team, called The Icetronauts, used a converted 1942-built DC-3 aeroplane to tow the EM-bird at a height of 15 metres above the Antarctic sea ice.
“We are happy to be the first researchers who have shown that the EM-bird can be operated in Antarctica safely from an aeroplane.”
Field measurements of sea-ice thickness and ocean properties were also made. The data is being used to verify aircraft and satellite measurements to derive ice thickness maps in the Southern Ocean, as part of a PhD study at Gateway Antarctica by UC student Gemma Brett.
“For my PhD, I am using an instrument which is very similar to the EM-bird except it is ground-based – it is sled-mounted and I towed it behind a skidoo across the sea ice,” she says.
Dr Rack is a senior lecturer in Glaciology and Remote Sensing at Gateway Antarctica Centre for Antarctic Studies and Research, at the University of Canterbury. From November 2016 to January 2017 there were six icetronauts working on the ice; two on sea ice and four on the Ross Ice Shelf. There are currently eight icetronauts working at Gateway Antarctica.
“Sea-ice science requires a multidisciplinary approach as it involves glaciology, meteorology, oceanography, and biology,” Dr Rack says.
Project partners include NIWA, York University Toronto, the University of Otago and Antarctica New Zealand.
This week, as part of its 60-year-anniversary, Scott Base will host an independent TedX event #TedxScottBase – the remotest venue for a TedX event ever.
TVOne News ran a full three minute segment highlighting the event in Antarctica and the connection to climate change. As the issues around climate change gain momentum in the kiwi psyche and conversation, it becomes more important for projects such as the Deep South Challenge to be part of the conversation to ensure that it’s not a doomsday story, but focusses on how New Zealand will adapt in a changing climate.
New Zealand rates well on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, due to a number of fortunate features: our position of the globe, away from the tropics that will experience the most extreme increases in temperature; our access to stable water supplies (although research shows New Zealand can expect some changes that will need addressing, especially in the Far North); and our status as an innovative first world country with the ability to adjust its economic platforms. However, our success will rely on understanding the climatic changes that are on the horizon, the potential risks to our current industry practices and allowing that to inform strategic planning at many levels of society including city infrastructure and primary industry. To this end, New Zealand has made a considerable investment by way of the Deep South National Science Challenge that brings together some of New Zealand’s top climate expertise, to develop the first New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) in order to provide the localised climate information and future projections. This will allow decision makers access to potential impacts and implications of climate change, particularly in terms of climate sensitive industries and infrastructure, that will affect all of us.
While the world watches Antarctica, and TedX that will be released online this Sunday, the Deep South National Science Challenge will continue working towards better decision making for all New Zealanders in the face of changing climate.
Successful airborne measurements of sea ice; preparation of data to inform the next IPCC report; and publication of a novel method that uses machine learning to classify satellite cloud data are some of the recent science highlights from the Deep South Challenge.
Antarctic Fieldwork – Airborne Measurements of Sea Ice
Deep South Challenge sea ice researchers from the Universities of Otago and Canterbury and ocean researchers from NIWA have successfully completed the deployment of an aircraft-towed electromagnetic induction instrument to measure sea ice thickness. Working from Scott Base in November 2016, the team was able to both deploy the airborne instrumentation and complete a three week validation programme of snow and sea ice thickness and structure measurements, in parallel with ocean structure measurements in McMurdo Sound. This research will be linked to a US-supported icebreaker cruise in 2017 and repeat measurements over McMurdo Sound and the Ross Sea in November 2017. The results will then be integrated within the Deep South Challenge into the New Zealand Earth System Model.
Dr. Mike Williams (Director, Deep South Challenge)
Prof. Pat Langhorne (Principle Investigator on DSC research)
Dr. Wolfang Rack (Principle Investigator on DSC research)
Contributions to the next IPCC report
As members of the Deep South National Science Challenge’s Earth System Modelling and Prediction programme (led by Dr Olaf Morgenstern) work on the full installation of the New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM), test simulations using precursor configurations have been under way on NIWA’s supercomputer, Fitzroy for more than 10 months. Meanwhile, the team is supporting the UK Met Office in their preparations for the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), by producing model input data for them. CMIP6 will lay the foundation for the planned 6th Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), due to be released in 2020/2021. This is an example of how the Deep South National Science Challenge is enabling this international collaboration in climate modelling.
Dr Olaf Morgenstern (DSC Programme Leader – Earth System Modelling and Prediction)
Dr Johnny Williams (DSC funded modeller)
Dr Vidya Varma (DSC funded modeller)
Dr Erik Behrens (DSC funded modeller)
Classifying cloud data – journal article
In October 2016, Associate Professor Adrian McDonald and co-authors published an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, which is a high impact international journal. The article describes a study which explores the application of machine learning methods to classify satellite cloud data, and is the first to apply this technique. This work effectively demonstrates that this technique can identify physically meaningful cloud regimes automatically, by analysing model data and the satellite cloud classes. Efforts are already underway to compare the results of this satellite classification with New Zealand Earth System Model output in order to test the quality of the representation of clouds in this new model.
Project pages:
This work was funded as part of two Deep South Challenge funded projects, which are both ongoing:
Associate Professor Adrian McDonald (DSC Programme Leader – Processes & Observations)
Dr. Simon Parsons (DSC funded scientist)
McDonald, A. J., J. J. Cassano, B. Jolly, S. Parsons, and A. Schuddeboom (2016), An automated satellite cloud classification scheme using self-organizing maps: Alternative ISCCP weather states, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 13,009–13,030, doi:10.1002/2016JD025199.
The mission of the Deep South National Science Challenge is to enable New Zealanders to adapt, manage risk, and thrive in a changing climate.
Working with communities and industry we will bring together new research approaches to determine the impacts of a changing climate on our climate-sensitive economic sectors, infrastructure and natural resources to guide planning and policy. This will be underpinned by improved knowledge and observations of climate processes in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica – our Deep South – and will include development of a world-class earth systems model to predict Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate.
Contestable funding – request for proposals (RFP) documents
The mission of the Deep South Challenge will be achieved through a framework that connects society with scientists through five inter-linked programmes. The three core inter-connected research Programmes (see figure 1 below) will be guided by and incorporate the research and related activities from within the Vision Mātauranga and Engagement Programmes.
To date, the Challenge has funded research projects that will help achieve the objectives of specific programmes including principally Vision Mātauranga (VM), Processes & Observations (P&O), and Earth Systems Modelling & Prediction (ESMP). In our first year of Contestable Funding, we funded seven projects that will enhance our knowledge of P&O, strengthen the development of the ESMP, widen our portfolio of VM research and initiate our explorations onto the field of climate change Impacts and Implications in New Zealand.
The Deep South Challenge has now opened its second Contestable Funding round. The Challenge invites proposals that will help deliver the overall Mission and contribute to the success of the Challenge. It is vital that applicants understand this core requirement when drafting proposals. Applicants are encouraged to contact the relevant Deep South Science Leadership Team (SLT) member to discuss their proposal ideas to ensure that it is Deep South Challenge Mission-relevant. Applicants are able to submit proposals that span two or more programmes, where appropriate.
While applications will be considered that cover any of our Programmes, we would like to encourage applications that fall into the Impacts and Implications and Engagement Programmes. These are areas that are currently under significant development, and are essential to the achievement of our Mission.
This round of Contestable funding could also be an opportunity for applicants to request funds that will support Antarctic fieldwork on the RV Tangaroa (2018/19), provided that:
The research is focused on achieving the Deep South Challenge mission
The research team have already submitted an EOI to the Tangaroa Antarctic Voyages Working Group and it is accepted (and evidence is submitted in support of this RfP).
Available funding
Total Value – Up to $1,500,000 (excl. GST) – for years 4 & 5 of the Deep South Challenge
Project Value – Up to $300,000 (excl. GST) total for up to two years
Reviewers – Independent Science Panel (ISP), Kāhui Māori, Technical Advisory Committee on Engagement, and Deep South Science Leadership Team (SLT) members.
Timeline
Early notice of pending Contestable Round – 23 November
RfP released – 20 December 2016
RfP closes – 2 March 2017
Review by SLT and recommendations to the ISP – 2 March to 22 March 2017
ISP review and recommendations – 22 March to 24 April 2017
Board approve recommended projects – 4 May 2017
Disseminate results and set up subcontracts – 4 May – 30 June 2017
Do you have an idea for Engagement about the Deep South Challenge (DSC)?
Can you think of innovative ways to help New Zealanders to make more informed decisions about climate change research?
Are there new ideas that you’d like to test about climate change engagement?
Watch the video below, or read the following guidance, on ways to connect with the Engagement Programme through the Contestable funding process.
How to get involved with the Engagement programme
The goal of the DSC Engagement programme is to contribute to improving New Zealanders’ ability and capacity to make decisions informed by DSC-related research. This will be delivered by focusing on six engagement objectives, which are outlined in more depth in the DSC Engagement Strategy and Executive Summary.
People can help us to deliver on these Engagement Objectives by:
partnering with the Engagement Programme on delivery of its core programme, for example through work as a designer, writer, videographer, event facilitator etc
Webinars about Engagement in the contestable process
Two webinars specifically focused on development of Engagement projects for the Contestable Round will be held on Thursday January 26th, 11am, and Monday, February 13th, 2pm. To register for these please email [email protected].
Engagement funding through the contestable process
There are three ways in which engagement can be included, and will be considered, in a Contestable proposal:
Proposals for research into engagement about climate change, especially related to decision-making and adaptation. These proposals will be assessed on research excellence as well as contribution to the Engagement Programme objectives.
Proposals that focus exclusively on engagement activities without an intention to contribute to academic research. These projects will be assessed on their ability to enable the Engagement Programme to meet its objectives.
Proposals that focus primarily on research related to one or more of the other four DSC programmes and also include an engagement component. In this case, the research component will be assessed on science excellence and he engagement component will be assessed on its contribution to the Engagement Programme objectives.
We strongly encourage prospective applicants to read the DSC Engagement Strategy to ensure their proposal delivers on at least one of the Engagement Objectives. In many cases, a single proposal might deliver on more than one objective. Examples of the kinds of projects that would deliver on the objectives are below; they are intended only as illustrations.
Development and testing of new mechanisms to enable informed decision-making for key sectors
We would love to see proposals for new ideas that will enable informed decision-making about climate change and its impacts and implications. We are especially interested in projects that help the user to better understand the role of an Earth System Model and/ or the data that it produces, the impacts and implications of climate change that are projected by models, and decision options related to adaptation.
We are also specifically interested in engaging with sectors most affected by extreme weather; drought; sea level rise; and shifts in typical weather patterns. This includes, for example, finance, infrastructure and natural resources; marginalised or low-income communities; and sectors where New Zealand’s competitive advantage may be eroded by these impacts. We would also like to support efforts that lead to a broad geographic reach.
Examples of this kind of project include games, interactive websites, data visualisation tools, use of new technologies for decision-making, new approaches to workshopping and decision-making, or events targeted at a key sector that is currently under-served by DSC activities. We expect research projects into new mechanisms like this to involve some component of active engagement, and to therefore be assessed on both its research excellence and ability to deliver on the engagement objectives.
Major new public engagement projects
We strongly encourage science communication and public engagement professionals to consider submitting a proposal for a bold, innovative and exciting climate change engagement project – especially ones that enable the audience to better understand climate models, the connections between climate science and decision-making, or consideration of adaptation options.
We are especially interested in engaging members of the public who make decisions that could be influenced by an understanding about (DSC-relevant) climate change research. This is a wide scale, which spans individuals who may not currently take climate into consideration in any decisions, to individuals who might use climate data to make a specific decision. This definition encourages activities focused on young adults or families, but not those explicitly focused on school-children or curriculum development.
Examples of this kind of project include exhibitions, data visualisation projects that help to explain how models work, digitised representations that help users interrogate real climate data in a useable form, new and accessible approaches for conceptualising models, and trialling of innovative public engagement approaches to facilitate greater dialogue, co-creation, and empowerment in decision-making related to the impacts of climate change.
Building capability in climate change engagement
We are very interested in opportunities for training and support for a range of intermediaries and leaders to enable them to communicate more accurately and effectively, and facilitate climate change engagement events and activities across New Zealand. This includes both improving scientists’ ability to communicate effectively to various audiences and improving others’ (e.g., media, educators, arts community, community and sector leaders) understanding of climate change science and how it interfaces with decision-making.
While much of this work will be funded by the core Engagement programme, examples of projects that would complement this work include new mechanisms for up-skilling in facilitation and climate change science and the development of new products or processes that would make engagement easier for these climate “champions”. This would include projects to make modeling and the NZESM more understandable to key audiences (including its strengths, limitations, scientific-ness, understanding projections, variability). Such a project would deliver on a number of Engagement programme objectives.
What next?
If you have an idea that you think might help the Engagement Programme to deliver on its objectives, please get in touch!
Two webinars specifically focused on development of Engagement projects for the Contestable Round will be held on Thursday January 26th, 11am, and Monday, February 13th, 2pm. To register for these please email [email protected].
For more details, please contact the Engagement Team.