Our Vision Mātauranga programme has recently awarded four Masters scholarships in research that will help achieve Vision Mātuaranga goals.

Scholarship recipient Raiatea Barlow Kameta (Ngāitai, Ngāti Pikiao, Ngāti Maniapoto, Waikato Tainui, Whakatōhea), studying at Victoria University of Wellington, describes her research into the impact of flooding and climate change on her marae at Marokopa, in the Waikato.

“Kia mau tonu ki tēnā, kia mau ki te kawau mārō. Whanake ake! Whanake ake.” —Ngāti Maniapoto whakataukī

When I was first taught about climate change, I was amazed that this big blue ball we live on was really a constantly changing system of bits and pieces. I really liked the idea that all these “spheres” interacted with and responded to one another at vast and minute spatial and temporal scales. Doing a geology and geography degree, I learned about Earth’s 4.5 billion-year history. One of the most important lessons for me has been that the Earth was here billions of years before us, and will be still be here after we’re gone. We are the renters, not the owners. Looking at the geology side of the equation was a great way for me to start my university experience, because it gives context – frames the issue.

Anthropogenic climate change is a huge change to the natural cycles of climate, and you can’t fake that kind of evidence, it’s literally “in stone” (or ice and sediments!). I knew I wanted to do something around climate change, but I wanted to focus on the present. Having seen the devastation caused by last year’s flooding across the country, I knew flooding research was something I was interested in scientifically, and passionate about, and that it would also hopefully benefit people in a tangible way.

My research aims to model, using something called the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI), the impact climate change will have on flooding at Marokopa (in the Waikato). I wanted a project that was close to home, and that would produce results that were useful for my people. Marokopa marae, a marae of one of my iwi (Ngāti Maniapoto), is at a higher risk of flooding because of how close it is to the ocean, the impact of erosion in the area and how climate is expected to change in the region.

In the course of the research, we start by building up a historical record of flooding which, along with data gathered through research and field work around the topography, geology, soil, erosion, land use, marine influence and rainfall, will be put into our model. This framework then shows how future climate change will affect the amount and timing of water passing through the landscape, from rainfall in the upper catchment, to groundwater saturation and sea level rise. We hope to provide mapping of where flooding and erosion will happen in future, specifically around the marae, so that we can better prepare for it in the present.

Who are the people responsible for my love of learning? My parents, both of whom are incredibly smart and supportive. My grandparents had a very grounded, connected knowledge of their people, for which I have absolute respect and admiration. I have had so many excellent teachers, and am so grateful for where their teachings have led me. Inspiration has come from lots of places. I think, being Māori, I have an awareness about and a need to look at topics from different perspectives. This was a large driving force behind wanting to learn – I was really curious about the world. Research is just an extension of learning, a practical application per se.

Both sides of my family have strong role models, who are or were extremely passionate about their work, and who have given so much time to their loved ones and communities. Whether it be tribunal claims or poukai rounds, they have a dedication and drive to give something back. Growing up around that kind of focus, strength and dedication has given me a push to do something worthwhile. To find something that I was passionate about, but that was also needed. University was the place for me, I think, because I wanted to learn, and I knew I needed to grow up and into a more independent person. Being away from home has been hard at times, but I think that’s the only way you can really find out what you can do. The opportunities here at university are endless, so that was the place for me to go!

If, as a result of this research, stakeholders and leaders make better decisions for our environment, that would be the ultimate achievement. Still, in terms of a science and passion-project, if one person saw this study and wanted to learn more about climate change, or science in general, that would probably, personally, be even better.

We’re currently seeking applications for the role of Programme Leader, Impacts and Implications for the Deep South National Science Challenge.

Expressions of interest are being sought for the role of Programme Leader for the Impacts and Implications Programme of the Deep South Challenge. The Programme Leader is a member of our Science Leadership Team (SLT).

The Challenge undertakes and coordinates research to achieve its mission of  “enabling New Zealanders to anticipate, adapt, manage risk, and thrive in a changing climate.” The Challenge is currently approaching the end of our first funding phase and has coordinated research and engagement across its five key programmes: Engagement; Vision Mātauranga; Impacts and Implications (I&I); Earth System Modelling & Prediction and Processes & Observations.

The I&I Programme Leader provides critical science and planning support to the Deep South Challenge. You will draw on your extensive knowledge and research networks (both national and international) to ensure the I&I research programme contributes to the wider Challenge mission. You will work closely with the Deep South Challenge team to ensure I&I research is integrated within the Challenge, and will strengthen and develop relationships with stakeholders, end users, other research providers and other research programmes, including the other National Science Challenges.

The I&I programme currently includes 14 research projects, with many dependencies between them. Research ranges from physical impacts (e.g. climate impacts on hydrology) to impacts on people and economic systems (e.g. climate change impacts on land-use suitability), and includes research into adaptation options (e.g. applications of real options analysis to water storage). Part of the Programme Leader role involves supporting individual research projects to ensure they are effectively contracted and delivered, as well as facilitating collaborations between projects. This position is also responsible for overseeing the work of the Partnerships Director, who leads our tailored engagement programme. This is done in conjunction with the Engagement programme leader.

The successful applicant will have the exciting opportunity to be part of the process to define our research in the second phase. We therefore require a strategic thinker, who can operate effectively as part of a team and assist in pulling together multidisciplinary research teams. 

Up to 0.3 FTE is available for this position, for an appointment to June 2019, with the expectation of extension, providing the Challenge is successful in securing funding for Phase 2 (2019 – 2024).

The SLT is led by the Challenge Director and comprises the Challenge Manager, and one programme leader for each of the five Challenge Programmes. The Director reports to the Deep South Board. Our other advisory groups include the Kāhui Māori, Independent Science Panel and the Representative User Group.

Please submit your CV together with a covering letter outlining your experience and interest in the role to [email protected] by no later than 5 pm Monday 9 July. For more information regarding this position, contact the Challenge Director, Dr Mike Williams: [email protected] | +64-4-386-0389

A new modeling tool developed as part of the Deep South National Science Challenge is revealing fresh insights into Southern Ocean eddies and their influence on global climate.    

Using the New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) as a starting point, Wellington-based NIWA ocean modeler Erik Behrens has developed a ‘nested model’ which can resolve mesoscale (intermediate-size) eddies in greater detail than ever before.  

Mesoscale eddies are an important part of the big picture of ocean modeling because they transport properties such as heat and nutrients around the ocean. The Southern Ocean is a hot-bed of eddie activity – especially in and around the Ross and Amundsen Seas.    

With traditional ocean modelling, the globe is divided into small rectangles – each measuring 1 degree (or 100km) across. The grids also have vertical levels to account for processes happening below the surface.   

Up until now, models like the NZESM haven’t been able to explicitly model ocean eddies. But thanks to a technique called local grid refinement, Erik has obtained crystal clear resolution 1/15° (2–3km) over the Ross and Amundsen Seas.             

It’s still early days for Erik’s new nested model, with some test simulations having been run. Next steps are to validate the model and consider research opportunities afforded by the higher resolution.   

Researchers, for example, are expected to be able to use the new set-up to model surface properties in finer detail and better investigate bottom water changes such as temperature and salinity.  

Erik gave an overview of the new, nested grid model during a recent Deep South Challenge seminar. A recording can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JktkYpH0Scc.

It’s with sadness we announce Dr Suzi Kerr’s decision to step down from her role as Science Lead of our Impacts and Implications programme.

Suzi developed this ground-breaking research programme, and we now have 14 climate impacts and adaptation research projects underway. She initiated our successful research co-creation Dialogues, which have already seen the Challenge make headway on the issues of water infrastructure; insurance; and community resilience in a changing climate. (We’re thrilled with the success of the recent Drought Dialogue, and that Suzi will continue to be involved with the Transport Dialogue, coming up shortly.) Suzi has built and empowered a significant climate adaptation research community, which has end users at its centre. Suzi has also helped Challenge researchers to develop the flow and form of climate information between our programmes and research projects. 

Suzi was recently appointed a member of the Interim Climate Change Committee. This adds to Suzi’s other roles as founder and Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Principal Investigator in Te Pūnaha Matatini (a centre of research excellence focused on networks and complex systems), and Adjunct Professor at Victoria University of Wellington. She is a member of Air New Zealand’s Sustainability Panel, and president of the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society. 

We will shortly be calling for Expressions of Interest for the role of Science Lead, Impacts and Implications. In the meantime, we want to extend our thanks for Suzi’s hard work leading the I&I programme and her championing of climate adaptation in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Early last month, the Deep South Challenge, with support from the now-disassembled NZ Climate Change Centre (NZCCC), hosted a climate ambassadors workshop in Wellington. The aim of the workshop was to support and develop a community of skilled and influential climate ambassadors who can champion an informed climate adaptation agenda in policy and research.

The workshop was the first of four planned around the country and developed to have a specific focus on climate research and decision-making processes in local and regional government. Forty-five participants from around the country arrived for the one-day workshop, featuring presentations from our expert panel of Stephen Daysh, Judy Lawrence, Wendy Saunders, Iain Dawe and Andrew Tait. We also extend our thanks to Teanau Tuiono for his seamless facilitation.

After some morning networking, Stephen Daysh kicked off with with a keynote presentation on the Clifton to Tangoio Coastal Hazard Strategy 2120. This was followed by lightning talks by the expert panel on climate change adaptation, impacts, engagement and implications. The workshop was designed to maximise conversations between all participants, to share knowledge and experience, to identify opportunities for change, and for participants to see how they might champion this change within their organisations, sectors and communities.

The broad range of attendees, and their enthusiastic collaboration with each other, meant that the workshop was valuable, both for the Challenge, and hopefully for the attendees themselves.

Results of the evaluation survey suggest that the workshop allowed for improved connections to relevant experts within climate change adaptation, impacts and implications. Stephen Daysh’s presentation provided a clear and concise case study for attendees to reference as they develop their own organisational strategies.

The group unanimously agreed that a connected network of climate ambassadors is needed, obtainable and would make a positive difference. Other feedback suggested there would be value in more hands-on learning opportunities for local government practitioners, including with reference to successful case studies such as in the Hawkes Bay. In the meantime, we’d like to draw your attention to the upcoming two-day Climate Change and Local Government Forum hosted by SOLGM and sponsored by the Deep South Challenge. More details can be found here.

We are now beginning planning for our workshops to be held later this year in Auckland, Christchurch and Dunedin. If you’re interested in attending one of these workshops, or in shaping the content of these workshops, please contact [email protected].

You can read through the findings of the event survey here:

The oceans are the largest ecosystem on our planet, with complex physical and bio-geochemical interaction between the atmosphere, sea ice and ice shelves. Oceans are the main storage for human-produced heat and carbon. At the same, oceans have the ability to redistribute heat and carbon both across large distances and over time, which makes them the key component in the climate system. 

Our understanding of the oceans has improved substantially in recent decades, thanks largely to satellite and Argo observations (a global network of ocean floats). Models are still (and will always be) necessary to fill data gaps, to put observations into a larger spatial and temporal context, and to forecast future changes. 

The ocean model in our New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) is based on the NEMO and MEDUSA models, and can be used to model past, present and future conditions. 

This presentation will include a brief introduction into the NEMO model and to the model configuration (eORCA1) which is used in NZESM. It will also focus on recent NEMO applications and scientific research using nesting (grid refinement) techniques within NEMO. Within the Deep South Challenge, a new model has been developed which uses nests to obtain a 1/15° resolution over the Ross and Amundsen Seas. In this way we can investigate how model resolution influences the spreading of Antarctic Bottom Water from these regions.

Finally, we will be presenting results on the recent NZ marine heat wave, demonstrating that subsurface heat transport plays an important role in the years-to-decades occurrence of marine heat waves in the Tasman Sea. 

About the presenter

Erik Behrens (NIWA) studied physical oceanography in Kiel, GEOMAR, Germany and obtained his Diploma in 2008 by investigating the Indonesian Throughflow. He continued as a PhD at the GEOMAR, researching the effects of increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet on the Atlantic Ocean. He then began work at NIWA, where his research focus has shifted towards the Southern Ocean and investigating coupled earth system models.

Physical hubs:

Please note, all NIWA visitors must sign in on arrival.

• NIWA Wellington: Conference Room*
• NIWA Auckland: Seminar Room
• NIWA Lauder: Computer Room
• NIWA Hamilton: C-Block Meeting Room
• NIWA Christchurch: Tekapo Seminar Room
• Victoria University of Wellington: LABY Lecture Theatre 118
• University of Canterbury: Room 411, Law Building
• University of Otago: Room 229, Science III building

*Our speaker will be presenting from this hub.

We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring friends and colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub.

Email: [email protected]

This workshop aims to support and develop a community of “climate ambassadors,” who can champion an informed and proactive climate adaptation agenda in research, policy, the public and private sectors and within local communities.

In order to “adapt, manage risk and thrive in a changing climate,” which is the mission of the Deep South Challenge, we need to better understand climate change impacts and implications, and we also need to raise our collective expertise in navigating the science–policy–business landscape.

Participants will learn from real-world adaptation case studies, with a focus on local government, policy and business. You will have opportunities for cross-sector conversations, to share your own expertise and experience, and to learn from other practitioners in climate science, local government and business.

This workshop will also build on participants’ existing knowledge and needs. We’ll take time to identify practical pathways and policy levers, as well as opportunities for you to build new networks and action plans.

Who is this event for?

This first workshop, held in Wellington, will focus specifically on the connection between research and decision-making in local and regional government. If you’re a local government professional, a consultant to local government, or a community member interested in the way government can set its climate adaptation agenda, this workshop is for you. We encourage researchers to participate, especially emerging voices in climate change impacts and implications. The workshop will help you build new connections and gain confidence in enabling knowledge transfer from research to policy and action.

The future

We’ll be holding similar workshops in Auckland, Christchurch and Dunedin throughout 2018. Feedback from these events will inform a second capacity-building phase in 2019. In this way we hope to build a community of influential ambassadors who can support local and national communities to adapt safely and smoothly to our changing climate.

Speakers and panelists

Stephen Daysh

Stephen is a director of the environmental consultancy Mitchell Daysh. He’s a Commissioner Chair under the Ministry for the Environment’s “Making Good Decisions” programme and has been a key participant in the Hawkes Bay “Clifton to Tangoio Coastal Hazard Strategy 2120”.

Judy Lawrence

Judy is a Senior Research Fellow at the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University of Wellington and leads two projects in the Deep South Challenge. Judy is co-chair of the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group and was a co-author of the recently released Ministry for the Environment guidance for local government, Coastal Hazards and Climate Change.

Iain Dawe

Iain is a Senior Policy Advisor (Coasts and Hazards) at the Greater Wellington Regional Council. He investigates coastal hazard management, research, policy development, analysis, implementation and advice and in the course of his work is also a science communicator.

Andrew Tait

Andrew is a Principal Climate Scientist with NIWA. He works with internal and external climate modellers to assess climate data and related impacts. He also works closely with non-science partners to communicate climate science effectively.

Wendy Saunders

Wendy is a GNS social scientist specialising in land use planning and natural hazards – including hazards that are exacerbated by climate change. A core part of Wendy’s work is engaging with communities, councils and others, to improve the way natural hazards are incorporated into planning. Wendy also leads the Deep South Challenge’s Engagement Programme.

Teanau Tuiono (facilitator)

Teanau works at the intersection of indigenous peoples’ issues and the environment. He has a diverse range of experience managing, facilitating and working on projects at the national, regional and international level, including at a number of UN processes. He was previously based at the Indigenous Knowledge and Small Islands section at UNESCO and currently produces educational resources for Māori Medium audiences.

Register

Registrations close 20 April and places are limited. Register using this link here. 

Price:

Price: $175+GST (If cost is a barrier, please email us)

Programme and workshop flyer

A new report released by the Deep South National Science Challenge, Communities and climate change: Vulnerability to rising seas and more frequent flooding, highlights key gaps in our collective understanding about how climate change will impact Aotearoa New Zealand’s diverse communities.

In the coming decades, more and more New Zealand communities will be exposed to flooding and coastal erosion made worse by climate change. Some communities will be resilient but others may find the physical, social, financial or emotional consequences difficult to recover from. These climate change impacts are unlike other natural hazards because they will incrementally worsen over time – the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment called sea level rise a “slowly unfolding red zone.” This is new territory for New Zealand, and we don’t yet know how communities will respond, nor is it clear what steps will reduce vulnerability and build community resilience to climate change impacts in the long term.

“Climate adaptation processes need to be carefully designed and delivered, especially for the more vulnerable,” says Janet Stephenson, lead author on the report and Director of the Centre for Sustainability at the University of Otago. “Decision-making institutions such as councils will need to be proactive in working with exposed communities,” Janet continues. “They will need to anticipate the support that communities will require, and will need to offer equitable solutions. Iwi and community members will need to be involved in climate change adaptation processes, and be in a position to make informed decisions about their future.”

The report outlines our current knowledge and identifies priority areas of research needed to prepare alongside communities for a changing climate. “For example,” says Janet, “law and policy need to be fit-for-purpose for the new challenges of climate change. This includes the role of government agencies, limiting exposure to hazards, and how we will finance adaptation.”

The report emerged out of a Deep South Challenge Dialogue, in which participants ranged from academics and scientists working in health, sustainability, hazard management and climate and environmental science, to representatives of iwi, migrant and local communities, and particular groups such as older New Zealanders.

“The dialogue process creates conditions in which participants learn from one another, come to a common understanding, and innovate together,” says Dr Suzi Kerr, Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and the leader of the Deep South Challenge’s Impacts and Implications programme. “The small number of participants means the issues are discussed honestly and in depth. Group discussion and thinking can progress and converge, rather than be subject to a polarised debate that solidifies existing views and positions.”

The report identified that we need to know much more about the extent to which flood mitigation schemes will or won’t help to protect communities under climate change and how information about climate change impacts can be more effectively communicated.

Janet says, “I hope that this report will continue to underpin further research on exposure, vulnerability and resilience for coastal and flood-prone settlements facing a climate-impacted future.”

New research announced

From the knowledge gaps identified in the report, the Deep South Challenge has recently funded two projects that go some way to addressing these questions.

The first project, Climate adaptation, vulnerability and community well-being, led by Janet Stephenson herself, is using case studies in the Hutt Valley and South Dunedin to investigate how councils already engage with exposed communities, whether any engagement is influencing adaptation, and options for improvement.

“We will explore how community groups, iwi, businesses and NGOs are involved in self-motivated adaptation actions, and the intersection with councils’ mandated roles and responsibilities.” Janet says. “Our project also focusses on more vulnerable community members to consider whether additional actions – not just engagement – are needed to ensure they are not further marginalised by adaptation processes.”

We are also surveying councils around New Zealand to see how they are engaging with their communities on adaptation processes. We will be drawing from all of this work to develop a suite of recommendations for policy, process and adaptation practice.”

A second project will look closely at flood mitigation schemes. “Floods are the most frequent economically damaging natural hazard in New Zealand,” says lead researcher Patrick Walsh of Manaaki Whenua, “and climate change and sea level rise are projected to increase their intensity and frequency. People are increasingly moving into populated places with elevated flood risk, where floods damage both dwellings and primary income sources.”

Economic losses from flooding are substantial in New Zealand and are projected to increase. Floods have caused almost $300 million in damages since only 2014 (not including the New Year floods of 2017/18 or more recent flooding), with particularly disruptive impacts on homes and farming.

The most common method of managing flood risk in New Zealand is through flood mitigation schemes, in which flood-related infrastructure is funded via targeted property rates and government budget. “However,” says Patrick, “many of these schemes were implemented last century, with mounting evidence that land use and population changes mean they’re insufficient for future risk.” There is also a surprising lack of research on these schemes.

This research will explore whether or not all flood-prone settlements have schemes in place – and will catalogue and map flood mitigation scheme locations using regional council data. “We’ll investigate whether flood mitigation scheme funding is adequate, and we’ll try to understand whether flood mitigation schemes are sufficient to protect exposed communities from increased flooding due to climate change.”

Both the newly released report and this new funding are an attempt by the Deep South Challenge to ensure that people, and communities, are at the heart of the conversation we need to have nationally about climate adaptation.

Climate change is already making day-to-day life more precarious and more expensive, both for ordinary New Zealanders and for our local and central governments. New Zealanders are increasingly interested in climate adaptation strategies. Conversations about the cost of early adaptation versus the risk of delayed action are growing in volume.

Researchers from the Deep South National Science Challenge are working on a huge range of climate adaptation issues. They are addressing urgent questions about the climate resilience of our infrastructure. They are asking who will pay for climate adaptation, and how. And they’re developing important solutions to the problem of decision-making in an uncertain future.

This seminar is an abridged version of the Treasury Guest Lecture delivered by Dave, Belinda and David in early-March. The seminar was well-attended and enjoyed, and is now “back by popular demand”.

About the presenters

Professor Dave Frame, NZ Climate Change Research Institute (NZCCRI)

Dave Frame has many years’ research experience in climate research, publishing in the world’s leading scientific journals as well as in specialist climate literature. Dave also has real world policy experience in the New Zealand Treasury’s Policy Coordination and Development group. Prior to joining the NZ CCRI as Director and Professor of Climate Change, Dave was Deputy Director and Senior Research fellow at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, where he also lectured in the Department of Physics. Dave was the first Director of the Deep South Challenge and is a Principal Investigator on the project Improving predictions and understanding deep south drivers of New Zealand’s climate. He will talk about work commissioned by The Treasury looking at the costs of weather events that are attributable to climate change.

Belinda Storey, Climate Sigma

Belinda Storey is a Principal Investigator with the Deep South National Science Challenge and Managing Director of Climate Sigma. Her research project Slow and sudden onset thresholds for private insurance retreat under climate change is examining where climate change is likely to cause insurance retreat in New Zealand’s coastal cities and towns over the next two decades.

David Fleming, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

David Fleming will present his Deep South Challenge project Extreme weather, climate change & the EQC. By looking at EQC claims data across the country, this work provides a detailed overview of locations facing high rate of weather-related disaster claims and explore if these data can provide better insights in terms of disaster occurrence, intensity and recovery. The project also aims to establish possible future financial liabilities for the EQC given different climate change scenarios.

Physical hubs: 

• Victoria University of Wellington: AMLT105*
• NIWA Wellington: Conference Room
• NIWA Auckland: Boardroom
• NIWA Lauder: Computer Room
• NIWA Hamilton: Reception meeting room
• NIWA Christchurch: Hautere Room
• University of Canterbury: James Logie 105 
• University of Otago: Room 312 (Physics), Science III building

*Our speakers will be presenting from this hub.

We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring friends and colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub.

Email: [email protected]

Remember our September symposium at Te Wharewaka ō Pōneke? Well, results are in from the surveys of participants we carried out to find out how well our aims for the symposium had been met.

We intended that the symposium would inform both end-user and researcher communities about Deep South Challenge progress, and that it would create an opportunity for sharing knowledge and ideas between end-users and researchers. We also hoped to strengthen connections among our researchers, in order to enhance integration across the challenge.

We carried out two surveys: the first, for our end-user and stakeholder participants (including government, industry and community organisations); and the second, for our researchers.

All end-users said that they knew more about the challenge after attending (with 65% indicating they knew “a lot more”), and 84% said they’d had useful discussions with our researchers at the conference. Of our researchers, 93% said they had developed new research connections with other researchers, and all of these planned to put their new connections to use in the course of their research.

Many attendees described the symposium in glowing terms, for example:

• “Great to have so many people actively working on climate science together in one place! Exciting conversations”
• “Better conversations with the Kāhui Māori and industry were enabled through this symposium”
• “Fabulous content and organisation”
• “Very well run and exceptionally useful”

Participants also challenged us to include more opportunities for researchers to hear directly from end-users: “Future symposiums need to have much more input from user groups, so the researchers are better informed about users’ needs”. And we were urged to avoid parallel sessions in the future: participants felt these hindered interaction and integration between our five research programmes.

We will certainly integrate this feedback to improve our next symposium, tentatively planned for May 2019. Stay tuned for more information.