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Today, each of the eleven National Science Challenges learned we have been successful in securing funding for a further five years of research. The Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate successfully bid for $27.1M, ensuring we can deliver on our mission of supporting New Zealanders to anticipate, adapt, manage risk and thrive in a changing climate.

In a statement today, Minister Woods said, “I’m delighted to see that the Challenges are fundamentally changing the culture of how science is being undertaken in New Zealand. The Challenges bring our top scientists and researchers together to work collaboratively, to work across disciplines, and to co-develop science with a broad range of stakeholders and Māori – something that we are truly leading the world in.” 

Responding to the news, Challenge Director Mike Williams said, “While we were confident of being funded again, this announcement is of course something to be celebrated. We have made so much progress in our first five years, and have established strong relationships across the public and private sectors, and with Māori communities. Our research is delivering the data and solutions our key communities need to begin making decisions about how they might adapt to climate change. 

“We particularly want to congratulate our researchers,” Mike said, “whose work has been recognised for its high quality and ambitious reach in supporting New Zealand to prepare for the future ahead of us. MBIE particularly highlighted the success of our Vision Mātauranga projects and noted our Challenge-wide engagement efforts, ‘which appear inclusive and courageous in the sense that they allow the Challenge to open and sustain potentially difficult societal conversations.'”

We extend our thanks to our Governing Board, our Independent Science Panel and our Kāhui Māori, who have worked hard behind the scenes to ensure the Deep South Challenge continues to maximise our potential within a tightly focussed work programme. We’re also pleased to be able to share our comprehensive Future Strategy for our second phase of research (July 2019–June 2024). To coincide with this announcement, we’re publicly launching our comprehensive Future Strategy, which sets out our research pathway for the next five years.

Current research suggests that climate change is likely to have significant impacts on New Zealand’s tourism sector, an important and valuable industry for New Zealand.

How can people involved in tourism manage risks to the sector? What steps should the government and the tourism sector take to respond and adapt to climate change threats?

As part of a Deep South Challenge research project Culture and Climate Change, a team of University of Waikato researchers is organising a citizen panel, bringing together climate scientists, social scientists and policy makers, along with those at the frontlines of the tourism industry. Together, we will be crafting an action plan for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector.

If you have an interest in managing risk in New Zealand’s tourism industry, we invite you to participate. You will be helping to shape policies that balance economic and environmental interests and supporting our tourism sector to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.

Places are limited. Registration essential: please register early to avoid disappointment. 

Email the Citizen Panel administrator: [email protected].
Check out the project at: www.deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/projects/culture-climate-change

This is a free event with morning tea and lunch provided.

Snow is the perfect place to store water over winter before nature releases it over spring and summer, in time for the irrigation season. The seasonal snow storage acts as an uncontrolled reservoir with the natural release of water into streams aligning well with the needs of growing plants.

There are many places throughout the South Island of New Zealand where snow melt is thought to be a significant contributor to stream flows that feed into irrigation systems. Central Otago is the obvious, stand-out region, with the Manuherikia schemes being classic examples that rely on the snow reservoir to support their human-made reservoirs. Areas outside of Otago also need the snow. For example, in South Canterbury the Opuha Water Ltd scheme keeps a very close eye on snow in the Two Thumb range, to plan each season’s water management. Of course, as well as many of these large schemes, a myriad of irrigation water takes operate from streams that are snow-melt fed. And on a completely different scale, the big alpine rivers of the South Island are all influenced to a greater or lesser degree by snow melt.

The magnitude of the “snow melt effect” – the delayed release of water stored as snow – varies considerably from place to place, and most irrigators and water managers have a view on its importance to their own operation. There are two things people are in agreement of: 1) the amount of snow stored in the mountain reservoirs varies considerably from year to year, and 2) the amount of snow is probably reducing over the long term, as the climate gets warmer.

In recognition of the need to better understand the annual variation, and long-term change, the Deep South Challenge has funded a group of people from an array of agencies to improve our ability to quantify New Zealand’s frozen reservoirs, and to assess how snow will fare into the future. The project is called “Snow, ice and glaciers in our changing climate: The impact of climate change on New Zealand’s frozen water resources”, known more affectionately among the team as the Icey Project.

Past consideration of climate change has found that the seasonal snow reservoirs will reduce in size and will release their water earlier than traditionally experienced. This is a double blow for irrigators. Less water, made available too early. In catchments with large glaciers upstream, there may be a temporary increase in runoff during spring and summer due increased glacier melt. However, increased glacier melt over some decades will eventually reduce the size of the glaciers and summer runoff will decrease.

Of course, with timely warning, these effects may be offset with changes in management systems, crop types, and irrigation infrastructure. But change is stressful, and often expensive, so clarity on the magnitude and timing of the changes to the frozen reservoirs is imperative to plan the required changes appropriately. Limiting the uncertainty in knowledge of the future snow reservoir is exactly what the Icey Project has been tasked to do. By the end of the project (June 2019), Icey will have made a new assessment of how the snow and ice reservoirs throughout New Zealand are likely to change between now and the end of the century.

Nevertheless, some challenges will remain and certain questions will be unanswered. For example, we still don’t know the extent to which our snow is redistributed by wind and avalanches, or at what rate our glaciers are melting when they’re blanketed in a thick surface debris cover. In subsequent work, we hope to further develop the science and integrate this new knowledge into national-scale hydrological assessments. Ultimately, this will provide a sound basis for irrigators to determine the best approach to plan for the future, and reduce the stress both on water managers, and on their crops.

A likely spin-off for irrigators is that the Icey Project may enable measurement-driven computer simulations to provide regular and up-to-the-minute assessments of how much water is ready, poised to flow into their systems. Similar assessments have been applied to the hydro-electricity industry since 1995, after prompting by the 1992 energy crisis, and more recently, to the Opuha catchment in South Canterbury.

Photo credit: Brewster Glacier during summer, which is located near Haast Pass in the Southern Alps (Chris Garden).

This article was originally written for the Spring 2018 edition of the Irrigation NZ magazine. The full article looks at a range of climate impacts on the irrigation sector.

This article was written jointly by Tim Kerr (Aqualinc Research); Andrew Mackintosh, Ruzica Dadic, Huw Horgan, Brian Anderson (Victoria University of Wellington); Nicolas Cullen, Pascal Sirguey (University of Otago); Jono Conway (Bodeker Scientific); Heather Purdie (University of Canterbury); and Christian Zammit (NIWA).

E ora ana te mauri o Patutātahi me te awa o Rangitāiki, e manaakitia ana e te iwi, e tiakina ana mo ngā whakatipuranga o muri mai. | To ensure that Rangitāiki River remains part of tomorrow’s plan, the vision demands attention by our people today. – Rangitāiki River Forum

Tēnā koutou. I am a descendant of Ngāti Awa, Te Pahipoto, and I’ve resided in Edgecumbe for 30 years. I grew up in Te Teko on our ancestral whenua, just out of Edgecumbe. Nanny Pareake and Koro Eruera had planted what seemed like an enormous and abundant orchard along the Rangitāiki River, immediately behind their home. Willow trees hung low over the waterway and served as excellent platforms for jumping off and floating away from. Summertime was spent with my siblings and cousins eating fruit and swimming. I was a water rat. At that time, many of us were. I loved the river then and I still do.

On April 6, 2017, at 8.15am, residents along College Road in Edgecumbe were asked to evacuate. After two days of heavy rain the river level was high and there were serious concerns about flooding. Fifteen minutes later, the Rangitāiki stop bank breached. Water quickly traversed the land, entering up to 580 households. The entire township was evacuated.

My husband, his business, our two tamariki, our mokopuna and many of our close friends and their families were directly affected by the flood. Two of our three homes have required rebuilding. Disaster, and the chaos that follows, disrupts lives. How people and their families manage, how their relationships hold up and how they behave collectively as a community, all determine the extent of the aftermath. So it is fitting that my research has focussed on what I term Korowai Manaaki – the Craft of Care.

Several years before my mother died, she gifted me what was to be the one korowai (cloak) she would make. Like our kuia Pareake, who was in her time a master weaver, mum spent many months crafting the garment. She adorned it not only with duck feathers from our hunting friends, but also with patience, thoughtfulness and aroha (love).

I use this korowai as an analogy to describe my research. The korowai encapsulates the wairua, or inner circle, of my key research themes: mana whānau, mana whenua, mana kōrero and mana tautoko. Together these form a coherent, collective research framework.

Through my values-based study, I’m seeking to identify the key understandings that emerge from the practice of manaaki – the craft of care – for displaced whānau, in disaster situations. I want to find out the needs that present for many flood-affected families, who are also often forced to relocate. I am very interested in understanding how climate change impacts on or reshapes the whānau unit.

In terms of my research journey, I hope to continue on to a PhD. I envisage developing creative tools, using communication technologies, social media and virtual reality, to educate communities. I’m also keen to develop an app that will encapsulate my research and be of benefit to whānau affected by disaster. Mauri ora koutou katoa.

Clouds have a massive effect on our climate. Cloud cover reflects radiation from the sun that would otherwise be absorbed by oceans, raising their temperatures. Cloud cover can also act as a blanket, keeping warmth near the surface. With Adrian McDonald (University of Canterbury) and Vidya Varma (NIWA).

Despite their significant influence on climate, clouds still represent the largest source of uncertainty in modern climate models. For example, the frequency of clouds over the Southern Ocean is often underestimated, causing models to predict warmer sea surface temperatures than observed. In turn, this leads models to predict the strength and position of the storm tracks incorrectly. Storm tracks impact New Zealand directly – bringing not only extreme weather events but also contributing to longer-term changes such as drought or changing rainfall patterns.

It is vital to correct the way clouds are represented in our models, so we can increase certainty in our climate projections for New Zealand.

In this seminar, Adrian and Vidya will present their joint work on Clouds and Aerosols. Adrian will discuss his team’s work collecting and analysing physical and satellite observations during recent voyages to the Southern Ocean. Vidya will describe her work in our NZ earth system modelling programme to identify modelling errors (“biases”) and their underlying causes, and to begin to correct them.

About the presenters

Adrian McDonald is the Director of Gateway Antarctica and an Associate Professor in the School of Physical and Chemical Sciences at the University of Canterbury. Adrian is also the leader of our Processes and Observations programme, and is the Principal Investigator of our Clouds & Aerosols and Satellite Simulator projects. Vidya Varma is a NIWA climate scientist working in our Clouds & Aerosols project. The project aims to improve the representation of clouds and aerosols in the NZ earth system model. Vidya’s areas of interest include modelling high-latitude climate variability (from both anthropogenic and natural causes).

We’re pleased to announce that Andrew Tait, principal climate scientist at NIWA, has taken on the role of Impacts and Implications programme lead. In this short interview, we asked Andrew about his vision for the job, and for the broader challenge of climate adaptation in New Zealand.

Tēnā koe Andrew. You bring years of experience, as a principal climate scientist at NIWA, to this role. Can you talk a bit about how your work as a climate scientist has led you to be interested in the question of adaptation?

Over the last two decades I’ve been involved in numerous climate change assessments for New Zealand and in the Pacific. These projects have focussed on producing climate change projections and then considering the implications and modelling the impacts of these climate changes. This has been fascinating work and is fundamental research for building up our collective understanding of what might lie ahead. Of course, this work is ongoing in the Deep South Challenge and I am thrilled to be involved in shaping this research. Adaptation is the ultimate goal of this work, because only through adaptation will we minimise the impacts and continue to prosper.

I see that adapting to climate change is a people problem, as much as or even more than it is a problem for physical science. I’ve worked alongside social scientists for many years and am excited about exploring different parts of the adaptation problem using social science methods and theories.

This moment in time is unique – we’re seeing the conversation about how to slow or stop climate change come alive in the mainstream. We’re still, however, lagging internationally on the issue of climate adaptation. What excites you about the climate impacts and adaptation work happening in the Deep South Challenge?

There is a clear focus on working with end users and stakeholders in the Deep South Challenge, which is a vital component of adaptation. In fact, it is the single most important factor because adaptation options must be tailored to stakeholders’ needs. Working with stakeholders in a research co-development framework is incredibly exciting and I am really looking forward to producing some really useful outputs that are immediately applicable to a wide range of New Zealanders.

As a National Science Challenge, the Deep South Challenge can’t focus on all climate impacts or on all aspects of climate adaptation. What role do you see our Challenge as having in helping to gain traction on such a complex and intractable issue.

The Deep South Challenge is part of a wider research landscape on climate change impacts and adaptation in New Zealand. It is extremely important for the research performed in the Challenge to inform and be informed by this wider effort, including international studies. I agree that the issue is complex, but I don’t think it’s intractable. Together we can build a collective capability to be prepared for the impacts of climate change. If we plan well, together we can and will adapt.

The Deep South Challenge is starting to transition into its second five years of operation. We’re trying to support joined up thinking on climate adaptation, and to fill some critical research gaps. What do you think the Challenge should hope to have achieved at the end of its 10-year mission?

I am fully supportive of the direction the Challenge is going in and I’m grateful to have an opportunity to work with such talented people. Over the remaining years of the Challenge, I want to see demonstrable evidence of people making climate change adaptation plans based on the best available information. I hope even to see some people begin to implement these plans alongside a robust process of monitoring and evaluation. To me, this will represent the ultimate success for the Challenge. But most of all it will mean that New Zealand is well on the way to becoming a climate-resilient nation.

Understanding the reproductive cycle of the blue mussels, particularly in a changing climate, will help us design better local and national management strategies for the species and help safeguard the species’ survival.

My family has very strong ties to the ocean, with my parents and grandparents growing up in and around the water. I grew up in Dunedin, and also spent a lot of time in and around the water, whether that was mucking around in boats, competitively sailing, free-diving or just swimming in local bays. I’ve always been fascinated by the ocean and this curiosity blossomed in science class when I started high school. My love of the ocean, combined with my passion for doing science, led me into the marine science field, and I began studying at the University of Otago. As I came through university, a desire to ask questions and find answers grew. This led me to do a masters in marine science.

My research is focussed on the blue mussel and the potential impacts of climate change on this important species. Compared to other regions around the world, little work has been conducted on the blue mussel in New Zealand. As the blue mussel plays such an important role in the ecosystem, it’s important to gather knowledge about this organism. I’m looking at the mussel’s reproductive cycle – how it changes across varying latitudes and with differences in seasonal biochemistry. The second part of my research focuses on examining how different ocean warming scenarios, across varying latitudes, will impact larval survival rates.

Many people have inspired me on my journey so far. My biggest inspiration to work in the field of marine science was my high school science teacher, who had an infectious passion for the ocean and the problems the world is facing, such as climate change. I really enjoyed the subject and become engrossed in what we could do to play our role in helping the planet. Further inspiration has come while at university, seeing the impacts people can make through conducting research.

As a recipient of a Vision Mātauranga scholarship, I really value Māori approaches to conservation and understanding the environment. In particular, I value the holistic way of understanding the environment and the connections between all elements in the ecosystem. Māori approaches, I believe, are important when working in marine ecosystems, which are highly interconnected. I hope my research contributes to a wider understanding of the marine environment in New Zealand, as well as providing another piece of the puzzle for managers of local environments – such as iwi – to make more informed environmental decisions.

A new paper, released as part of the Deep South Challenge project, “Extreme weather, climate change & the EQC,” explores comprehensive EQC data to investigate weather-related claims from 2000-2017, and to observe how weather-related events have translated into financial liabilities for the Crown.

In New Zealand, properties where the owners make weather-related insurance claims through EQC are situated closer to the coast. However, claims are not necessarily associated with higher population growth areas. This can be seen in the high concentration of claims in the northern areas of both islands.

More EQC claims tend to come from locations with higher median incomes. The reasons for this increase in EQC pay-outs associated with higher income households are not yet entirely clear. They could be associated with better access to the system, higher exposure due to location preferences of various income groups, or higher damages caused by higher asset values (e.g. larger homes and larger land housing footprints).

The findings provided in this paper can also be considered in the context of discussions initiated by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, which proposes to institute an EQC-like scheme for dealing specifically with sea-level rise and flooding. It may also be useful for ongoing discussions about proposed revisions to the Earthquake Commission Act (1993) and the Insurance Law Reform Act (1985).

This paper is the first in a series. This work ultimately aims to identify the impact of the public insurance for weather events on adaptation and recovery, and to project the financial liability from climate change for the NZ Crown. This paper is only the beginning of insights about the increasing risk that current and future residential areas might face, given the high likelihood of increasing frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events.

Read the full paper at Motu, here.

Recent flooding on the East Coast has been a timely reminder about the threat of erosion, which is projected to worsen in our changing climate. In this seminar, researcher Shaun Awatere (Manaaki Whenua) will speak about his Vision Mātauranga project on economic modelling and native afforestation on the East Coast.

Māori within the Waiapu catchment on the East Coast have long-term interests in the land they own and manage. Māori are also heavily invested in primary industries. Projected climate change impacts put these interests at risk. 

To help landowners reduce the risks of increased erosion under climate change, and to maximise their revenue, this project – which has only recently concluded – used kaupapa Māori, bio-physical and economic assessment tools to understand and evaluate different land-use decisions.

Alongside landowners, the project identified multiple land-use opportunities with a range of social, economic, environmental and cultural benefits. These included alternative forestry (mānuka, kānuka, tōtara, mataī, puriri, harakeke and kawakawa), horticulture (including honey, olives and olive oil, lemons and hemp) and other business options derived from mātauranga Māori.

Under all future climate change scenarios, research found that re-foresting the land – particularly with indigenous species – would result in a significant reduction of soil erosion for the Waiapu catchment. Significantly, afforestation would also help realise the core values and aspirations of Māori landowners, which include kaitiakitanga (sustainable resource management), manaakitanga (reciprocal obligations) and whakatipu rawa (growing the asset base).

The research presents recommendations for governance arrangements in Te Tairāwhiti, policy recommendations (including for the Ministry of Primary Industries and the Gisborne District Council), recommendations for Māori landowners, and recommendations for working with Māori to address climate issues. 

This research project was a partnership between Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, SCION and He Oranga mō ngā Uri Tuku Iho Trust. 

About the presenter

Shaun Awatere (Ngāti Porou) is a resource economist for Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research in Hamilton. He has been working to improve the incorporation of Mātauranga Māori into local government planning by developing the systems and processes that will enable Māori values to be integrated into urban design and development.

Physical hubs: 

Please note, all NIWA visitors must sign in on arrival.

• Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, Hamilton*
• NIWA Hamilton: Reception Meeting Room
• NIWA Auckland: Seminar Room
• NIWA Lauder: Computer Room
• NIWA Christchurch: Hautere Room
• University of Otago: Room 229, Science III building
• University of Canterbury: Room 411, Law Building
• Massey University: Manawatū campus, Library Research Collaboration, Room Lib2.45

*Our speaker will be presenting from here

We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring friends and colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub.

Email: [email protected]

Our Vision Mātauranga programme has recently awarded four Masters scholarships in research that will help achieve Vision Mātauranga goals.

Scholarship recipient Sam Heenan (Ngāi Tahu), studying at the University of Otago, describes his research into the impact of climate change on New Zealand’s iconic Bluff Oyster.

I always wanted to move to Dunedin for university, well before I knew what I wanted to study. At high school I enjoyed biology subjects, so I looked at what there was to study in that area at Otago. I decided to major in Aquaculture and Fisheries, as I’m a keen fisherman and diver, and have always been interested in fish populations. I never saw myself doing scientific research, but I found the practical aspects of the course really interesting, and I got on very well with classmates and staff.

This led me to a decision to do my master’s in marine science, researching Bluff Oysters. The research is very hands-on, and it’s rewarding to contribute knowledge to an iconic commercial species.

I’ve always had a natural desire to learn more about the ecosystem. My experience fishing and diving in the outdoors means I’ve always wanted to know more about the species I’m targeting, as it helped me catch more! Sustainably harvesting these natural resources is important to me, so that they can be preserved for the benefit of the future. More knowledge is often needed in order for management to make the correct decisions around conserving our resources, and it’s rewarding to contribute science towards this.

I’m looking at the reproductive cycle and condition of the Bluff Oyster, and how this is affected by temperature and infection by the Bonamia parasite, during the course of the year. It is important to learn more about reproduction, as breeding determines the future health of the population. Oyster breeding is known to be closely in tune with yearly temperature cycles, and more knowledge about these links is needed to predict how warming oceans may impact the production of oysters in the future. Currently, a major problem in Bluff Oysters is infection by the Bonamia parasite. My research involves looking at how the parasite may affect oyster reproduction. Future management may need to consider how infection rates are altered in a changing climate, and more knowledge around interactions with the parasite is needed.

The Bluff Oyster has long been an iconic commercial and cultural species in New Zealand. Ngāi Tahu holds a significant portion of quota in the Bluff Oyster fishery. I hope that learning more about oyster reproduction, which is a key aspect in determining future population levels, may help an important Māori business to continue sustainable operations. 

In general, I hope my research will contribute more understanding to assist in future fisheries management. The Bonamia parasite is a threat to both aquaculture and the oyster fishery. More knowledge about how the parasite affects oyster breeding and condition may help to more effectively manage the disease. In addition, learning more about the links between temperature, breeding and infection may provide insight into the health of the population in a changing climate.