New research released by the Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate supports decision-makers to map out how decisions can be made now for ongoing climate change impacts, by starting with the future we wish to avoid. The research report, Supporting decision making through adaptive tools: Practice Guidance on signals and triggers, has been a multi-disciplinary and multi-institute effort, with team members from Victoria University of Wellington, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, and NIWA.
Led by Judy Lawrence (Victoria University of Wellington), the research undertaken over the last two years alongside practitioners, encourages decision makers to understand how to stage decisions, by identifying “adaptation thresholds” (the future situations we want to avoid), “triggers” (identified moments at which we action a given decision), and “signals” (very early warning bells, that tell us things are beginning to change).
The team’s report is presented as “practice guidance” and complements the existing MfE Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance (2017). These form key tools and processes in the planning toolbox for councils, and for river and coastal hazard managers, looking ahead to a future of sea-level rise, extreme storms, and changing rainfall patterns.
“We want to support local capability and capacity for adaptation planning,” says Dr Judy Lawrence, “for changes to climate that will undoubtedly impact where we live and and how we go about our business, as well as how we protect public safety, health and well-being.”
The research presents various methodologies for identifying and tracking signals and triggers. One case study, led by Scott Stephens at NIWA, demonstrates how to identify credible and relevant signals and triggers for coastal flooding, with a monitoring period closely aligned to local government planning mechanisms. A second case study led by Daniel Collins (NIWA), looks at riverine flooding, and explains, for example, the importance of understanding whether chosen signals and triggers successfully warn of an approaching adaptation threshold and give sufficient time to act, while not giving false alarms.
The authors also discuss case studies on both the Hutt and Lower Whanganui Rivers with evidence about common barriers that can slow the uptake of Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning across the country. Finally, Nick Cradock-Henry from Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research uses scenarios to stress test the signals and triggers for different future conditions for their relevance, credibility and legitimacy. Paula Blackett from NIWA designed the processes for developing the signals and triggers.
All examples point to the importance of integrating local knowledge and local interests, as well as social, cultural, economic and environmental conditions into the design of signals and triggers.
This research complements existing Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning resources. The report authors are clear that for this kind of planning different kinds of technical expertise are required based in science, policy and the practice of engagement.
Join us for an MPI-hosted lunchtime seminar session on Climate Change Impacts on Land Use Suitability, with Anne-Gaelle Ausseil (Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research).
Her recent research looks at how a changing climate could potentially change New Zealand’s agricultural industries. The research also explores how the primary sector can incorporate the effects of climate change into land use decision making, to make effective choices while meeting soil, water quality and economic objectives.
Neil Williams and Esther Richardson will also be present, to discuss how this research links with some of the other land-use suitability projects underway at MPI.
If you’re interested in climate change adaptation and land use change, you’re welcome to attend either in person at MPI (Wellington), or via Skype (details below).
New research projects a significant seasonal shift in pasture production and changes to wine grape flowering across New Zealand under future climate conditions. Long-term adaptation strategies must be adopted at a faster pace across all primary sectors.
Rural New Zealanders are first to experience the most challenging effects of climate change. Farmers and growers are already under extreme pressure from flashpoint climatic conditions in 2020, with drought in Northland and extreme flooding in the south. New Zealand food and fibre producers are used to making tactical adjustments to a variable climate, but a new report suggests long-term strategies to adapt to a changing climate must be adopted at a faster pace across all primary sectors.
We hope this research will further encourage long-term strategic adaptation, such as diversifying cultivars, shifting sowing dates and planning additional shade and shelter.
Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research
A research partnership between two National Science Challenges, Our Land and Water and the Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate, will help scientists, regional councils and industry bodies understand the potential impacts of climate change on pastoral, arable and horticultural farm systems, and identify appropriate adaptation measures.
The research provides important data that will underpin user-friendly tools in development that aim to help landowners understand and visualise alternative land use opportunities.
“We hope this research will further encourage long-term strategic adaptation, such as diversifying cultivars, shifting sowing dates and planning additional shade and shelter,” says Anne-Gaelle Ausseil of Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, principle investigator in the research.
“People are hungry for knowledge,” says Tracy Benge, manager of the wine industry’s Bragato Research Institute, which began a programme of climate change adaptation research in 2018. “Everyone who works in nature can see the changes happening in our climate.”
The research used and compared several biophysical models to project future changes in production and impacts on nutrient loss and water demand under different climate scenarios over the next 80 years. The study focused on the Waikato, Hawke’s Bay and Southland – each region represented by one location with two contrasting soils.
Ausseil says the study looked at the impact of overall climate trends but wasn’t able to calculate the impact of all risks. “Extreme events like hailstorms and damage from insects are also likely to increase under climate change conditions, but it is difficult to quantify the additional measures needed to respond to these events.”
The research findings suggest that pastoral farmers will probably see a small increase in overall pasture production in many regions of the country, due to increased carbon dioxide encouraging plant growth, but with a shift in production towards wetter springs and away from dryer late summers. Higher temperatures will pose a greater risk to livestock production, with more days where heat stress may occur.
For perennial crops such as wine grapes, the effect of climate change may require a change in cultivar, to grape varieties adapted to warmer and dryer climates. However, the warmer climate may also open new areas suitable for wine grapes that were previously too cool.
Pressure on fresh water is likely to increase. Extreme rainfall events will increase, leading to more extreme, more variable, more frequent nitrate leaching events. Increased rain during spring may also increase nitrate leaching.
An increased risk of water shortage, especially in drought-prone regions such as the Waikato and Hawke’s Bay, will put pressure on freshwater ecosystems and require a continuous trend towards more efficient use of irrigation water. For pasture and arable crops, there is a trend towards higher water limitations during spring and summer (especially for the Hawkes Bay). The variability of water demand in Southland is predicted to increase.
Key implications by sector
Beef, lamb and dairy
Change to pasture growth is likely to vary by location, but a marked shift in seasonality with increase in growth in late spring/early summer is likely, with a decrease in late summer. Analysis with two models both gave consistent results.
Heat stress will be an increased risk for animal health, with about two additional weeks of risk for moderate heat stress by the 2090s, and a more pronounced risk of severe heat stress. Provision of more shade and shelter will be needed.
Pastoral farmers, sector bodies and regional councils should prepare for increased frequencies of severe heat and summer drought.
Nitrate leaching will be higher and more variable. The most noticeable increase modelled was in the Southland case study, where annual leaching was modelled to increase significantly due to more spring rain and more frequent extreme rainfall events. More research is needed to confirm the trend. In the Hawke’s Bay case study, year-to-year variability was most extreme in free draining soil.
Arable
Climate change may have minimal effects on maize yields (except for a slight increase in Hawke’s Bay) if crop management is adapted to reduce risks of yield loss. For example, maize crops may be sown earlier in spring to minimise negative impacts on yield caused by faster reproductive development that shortens the crop cycle.
Earlier sowing dates will enable the use of long-cycle maize hybrids for additional growth period, or the earlier establishment of autumn-sown crops such as wheat, forage oats and Italian ryegrass for additional winter production.
Horticulture
Kiwifruit is likely to be impacted by higher water demand in some areas, and more variable demand in others.
Wine grape flowering dates are likely to shift. Sauvignon blanc, for example, is expected to move from flowering later than pinot noir, to flowering earlier.
Wine quality may be affected by changes to the sugar content of grapes, due to a compressed time for fruit growth.
New grape varieties adapted to a warmer climate may be required.
The warmer climate may open new areas for wine grapes that were previously too cool.
How the wine industry is adapting
“Collaborating is crucial to picking up the pace of adaptation,” says Tracy Benge, establishment manager of the wine industry’s Bragato Research Institute, which began a programme of climate change adaptation research in 2018.
“In the past the wine industry has done pockets of climate change research, looking at things like frost occurrence, pests and disease. What’s needed now is coordinated, collaborative climate adaptation research.”
Collaboration across primary sectors, research organisations and between countries is crucial for picking up the pace of adaptation, says Benge. “We don’t need to reinvent the wheel. We can leverage what’s been done elsewhere and fill the gaps with our own research.”
Bragato worked with NIWA to model two climate change scenarios with 15 variables (such as temperature, rainfall, humidity and soil moisture deficit) for all nine winegrowing regions, then took a roadshow to those regions to share the findings. The process took 12 months from modelling to presenting the results.
“We’ve found the industry, from grape growers to winemakers, are really engaged and keen for more knowledge and more tools. Over the last three vintages there has been clear evidence of changes in our climate. The workshops we’ve held about climate change at our annual industry conference are the most heavily attended we’ve ever had.”
“Everyone who works in nature can see the changes happening in our climate. People are hungry for knowledge.”
E Rangi e Papa whakarongo mai koia ki tēnei karanga o te wā nei eeeeeeiii Tūrou Hawaiki ki te kaupapa o te wā nei eeeee Mate i te mate i te pā hana hana o wai ori ake nei eeeeei Nau mai oro mai ki tēnei marae tapu o te aotūroa nei eeeei
Sky father, earth mother, please listen to the call of our time May the power and virtue of Hawaiki be upon us all From death to death, a swaying wave of life Come, resonate here in this sacred courtyard of all life
Karakia, Tauparapara
Ko te kawa o te ora, ko te kawa o te ora, Ko te kawa o te ora, tēnei ka tākina, Ko te kawa o te ora, tēnei ka hikina Eeei Tapu Tapu mai koia ko Rangi e tū nei Tapu Tapu mai koia ko Papa e takoto nei Tapu tapu mai koia ko tēnei mana Mana mai, mana atu Mauri mai, mauri atu Tapu mai, tapu atu Tiaki mai, tiaki atu Haumie e hui e tāiki e!
The cycle of life, the cycle of life the cycle of life recited the cycle of life lifted up Sacred indeed is Sky father Sacred indeed is Earth mother Sacred indeed is this power This power outward, inward This outward essence, this inward essence This sacredness inward, outward This protection inward, outward Alliance, consensus Together one and all
This karanga and tauparapara were composed in late 2020 for the Deep South Challenge by Matua Ruia Aperahama, member of our Kāhui Māori, and an extraordinary musician and educator.
This story takes you through the values and the narrative that underpins our website. It emerges from workshops with our Kāhui Māori and other kaupapa Māori researchers.
A whakataukī to guide our storytelling
Emerging out of the kōrero of the Kāhui Māori, Ruia Aperahama proposed this whakataukī as a galvinising force for our storytelling.
Reciprocity underpins and surrounds this whakataukī. In order to change with our changing climate, we need to recognise and integrate reciprocity into all aspects of our work.
Rather than recalling the pūrakau of particular hapū or iwi, it’s open and general enough to allow a way in for many audiences.
Whaea Sandy Morrison, our Vision Mātauranga programme lead, also noted the reciprocity embedded in Pacific cultures (for example, through tributes and blessings), recalling Aotearoa’s obligations to Pacific nations under threat from climate change, and drawing a geographical link in our research from the Pacific region to the Southern Ocean: across time, space and scientific disciplines.
This reciprocity can nurture – grow – our sense of authority and agency to make decisions. It cultivates vibrancy, enhancing our health and well-being. It generates a reverence for each other and the natural world, and provides us with a strong understanding of the cultural and physical limitations we must work within.
This reciprocity can also activate an ethic of energetic care, for each other and our environment. Rather than allowing panic or fear to lead us, we can move forward with agency and hope.
How did we interpret this whakataukī in visual design?
We wanted to find a way for our non-Māori audiences to experience a shift in perspective. This shift might be in an understanding of physical or social hierarchy; to a sense of time or place; or in the way we perceive the nature of “authority”.
Equally, we intended that our website would enable our Māori audiences to feel a sense of recognition for their everyday realities.
We want our online presence to reflect (as well as we can), indigenous ways of being and relating, to each other and to our natural world.
We contacted the talented crew at Āriki Creative and asked them to create some kōwhaiwhai based on this whakataukī and the themes we developed (below).
We hope our website is inclusive of all audiences. We hope to provide some ways to activate our collective agency. We all need to seek the hope, mana and confidence to start making decisions.
Themes
Ahikāroa | place, belonging, connection
Mana | agency, authority, working with our strengths
Taputanga and Atuatanga | reverence, protocols, limitations
Kaitiakitanga | rangatiratanga, ki mua ki muri, intergenerational responsibility
Ātea | navigating, journeying, from the Pacific to the Southern Ocean
We acknowledge the primacy of place and of belonging in all climate adaptation work.
We recognise mana whenua, at the same time as being careful not to homogenise hapū or iwi Māori. Our narrative acknowledges the multiple claims of mana whenua, as well as multiple knowledges, rather than suggesting that any single source of knowledge or power will deliver robust solutions.
Climate change – like other historical upheaval – is likely to separate at least some of us from our homes and whenua. Decision making is especially traumatic when we risk being separated from places where we hold ahikāroa. Adaptation solutions must strengthen the decision-making powers of local people, particularly ahikā.
Ahikā are already observing local environmental changes – to water sources, environmental indicators in flora and fauna, and to patterns in weather and climate.
If we all learn how climate change may impact our local food sources, fishing grounds, rivers and forests, habitable land and recreation spaces, we can find robust local solutions.
If we spend time understanding the values that drive our decisions, we are also more likely to find collaborative, robust adaptation solutions and opportunities.
Mana | agency, authority, working with our strengths
Our research speaks directly to decision makers. We are all decision makers, regardless of how small or large our sphere of influence.
We respond to and support decision makers – on marae, in the community, around boardroom tables, and in local and central government – to work out what we can do now, and to start to do it. Our research supports decision makers to understand a wide range of climate risks and to plan to deal with those risks, over the short and long terms.
There is an urgency to act. But to overcome the real barrier of despair in the face of massive uncertainty, we meet our audiences with positive, action-focussed and even light-hearted language.
Te mauri, te mana, te ihi, te wehi. These are both precious and volatile.
In order to embrace their own agency and to collaborate, decision makers need to feel seen, heard, respected and honoured. Te mauri, te mana, te ihi, te wehi. These are both precious and volatile.
We communicate hope and activate agency by providing ‘glimpses’ of success – examples where others have faced near-impossible climate-related challenges and found a way through.
We provide clear signposts for users to find their own pathways towards their own solutions. We are clear about who is responsible for particular adaptation barriers.
We have hope and believe we are all capable of change. Our kaumatua and our ancestors survived great change. ‘The thing is not to panic’.
Climate change will likely disrupt wāhi tapu, taonga Māori and whakapapa Māori. We acknowledge the immensity of the hara, the wrong that will be caused to tangata whenua if we choose not to act.
Whatever names we know them by, atua are speaking to all of us. They speak through the rain, the sun, the tides, the clouds and the wind. Immense change is upon us, even if the rate of change is uncertain.
We acknowledge that Western science – especially climate science – must connect with a sense of reverence for the natural world. Both wairuatanga and whakapapa help us understand how the human and non-human worlds are related. If we feel pain when damage is done to the natural world, we will be more likely to respond. Rather than setting out to dominate or control nature, our research supports solutions that work with nature.
The sky is filled with grief. Over the southern horizon, the ocean is losing patience. It can only absorb so much poison. It melts and swells, and sends us small and large messages. Native species flower earlier. Fish migrate further south. Shellfish don’t grow as large or as strong. Frost arrives late or not at all. Atua make themselves known in the form of giant storms and massive tides. We know the damage we have caused. We know our ancestors are changing. We know we have to figure out how to change with them.
Ruia for example referenced Te Tai o Ruatapu and Parawhenuamea, as controllers of or personifications of destructive tides, tsunamis, floods. We hold these stories and others close, even as we’re careful not to overstep hapū control of their own pūrakau.
Kia mau te taura o tēnei o ō tātau waka, koi motu ka haria e Parawhenua mea ki runga ki te tūāhu o tāna tama (TJ 10/5/1898:7). / Hold on to the rope of our canoe lest it is severed and taken by Tsunami onto the sacred place of rituals of her son.
Ruatapu, son of Uenuku, convinced the gods of the tides to destroy the land and its inhabitants.
We recognise the importance of protocol in supporting successful adaptation. Protocols help guide our behaviour, and tell us what is permitted and what is restricted. By following protocol, we strengthen our relationship with and respect for our ancestors, and understand the challenges they faced and how they navigated change. We seek consensus and we prepare properly, which empowers us to act and keeps us safe.
Kaitiakitanga | rangatiratanga, ki mua ki muri, intergenerational responsibility
Climate adaptation is an intergenerational issue. The cause of climate change begins long ago, with industrialisation, colonialism and imperialism. If we don’t begin to change, those who will suffer most from climate change will be our mokopuna, and their mokopuna. We hold their lives in our hands.
We need to look in all directions, ki mua ki muri, ki runga ki raro, ki waho ki roto, to understand our guardianship responsibilities. We must also consider that guardianship without rangatiratanga – decision-making power – is an empty concept.
Our communities must be involved in making decisions about their own well-being, and about the well-being of our environment. Decision-making at all levels of society – especially and including in research – must be transparent and accountable to the communities it is supposed to serve.
Ātea | navigating, journeying, from the Pacific to the Southern Ocean
Sandy Morrison’s research, which begins at the beginning, in the wide open ātea of the Southern Ocean, opens with this karakia:
Te ao o te tonga, e whariki mai ra e Nā runga I ngā hiwi Ngā Pari-huka e, te ika-tawira, Ka whakapou nei ōu, i.
The atmosphere of the south, stretching out wide Above the mountain ranges Beyond icy cliffs, where ancient fish flourish And wonders, to which I humbly bow.
While no single iwi claims mana whenua over Antarctica, Polynesians were the first to navigate the Southern Ocean. We look to the Pou Whakairo of James York Robinson, opened by our board member Tā Mark Solomon in Antarctica, to understand the origins and purposes of ocean voyaging and ocean navigation.
Sometimes, change is necessary. Always, change requires great courage and even greater teamwork. Change can be exciting, adventurous and create new opportunities.
We are not afraid of change, because in the past, change has led us to new beginnings. Our ancestors have journeyed towards new knowledges and sources of culture, as well as in search of shelter and new sources of food.
The Polynesian navigator Hui te Rangiora travelled (some say as a giant reptile) to the Southern Ocean (resting half-way at the mouth of the Riuwaka River in Motueka).
Children perform haka like Pītotori to remember and honour him. Sandy tells, “This haka is well known to Tainui… It is synonymous with waka, navigation and seafaring. Its author is unknown as is the time in which it was recorded. It tells the story of a supernatural being called Hui Te Rangiora with a needle-like structure on its back which pierced the sky. When asleep, this taniwha resembles the silhouette of mountain ranges.”
Ocean navigation provides rich metaphors for the challenges ahead in climate adaptation. Sandy Morrison’s research project “Te Tai Uka a Pia“, due for imminent release, provides a rich source of material for navigation messages and imagery.
As our ancestors prepared to leave their homelands and travel in search of new territory, so must we consider the compromises, and the opportunities, ahead of us as our climate changes.
Unique among the NSCs, the Deep South Challenge has a research programme dedicated to understanding the nature of engagement, as well its practice and evaluation. Its major research project looks at the way culture influences people’s decisions about adapting to climate change. This May 2019 Q&A with researchers leading the Culture & Climate Change project foreshadows the team’s research results, due out next month.
The energy bubbling through this research trio from the University of Waikato is infectious, and speaks volumes about the work culture they themselves foster. “Yes!” they respond, collectively. “We have a collaborative research culture with no hierarchies or centres of authority. We draw our inspiration from our research participants, students and interdisciplinary collaborators. We don’t have a designated leader – we follow each other’s lead.”
It must be somewhat difficult to frame a project around culture, when people interpret the idea of culture so differently. “‘Culture’ means many things to many people,” they agree, “and we don’t think there is a common understanding of the word in New Zealand. To some, it’s synonymous with ethnicity; to others, it stands for certain customs, traditions or behavioural characteristics that bind particular groups of people together… We tend to align with the late cultural studies theorist Raymond Williams’ reading of culture as ‘lived experience’. In other words, we see culture as the way people make sense of their everyday lives.”
Their research focusses on the tourism industry, which is particularly vulnerable to our changing climate. Tourism is an excellent prism through which we can understand how culture influences the choices we might make about adapting to climate change.
“Tourism is built on the cultural narratives of a place. What draws tourists to a land and what tourism providers offer to attract tourists tell us a lot about the importance of values, place and practices that underpin culture. The tourism industry demonstrates the critical need to start changing these narratives – by adopting key Māori values, for example – in adapting to climate change.”
And yet the media, the “general public” and researchers themselves sometimes assume there are values and even emotions that all Kiwis share. How much does the team think this is true or not true? “We hear a lot about ‘Kiwi values,’” they say, “as if there’s one definitive set of values that’s common to every New Zealander. We don’t believe that’s true. This is a diverse country, not just ethnically diverse but also in terms of socio-economic status, access to resources, geographical location, political, cultural and ideological leanings, and circumstances of life… People have different approaches to what is ‘valuable’ in their lives.
“At the same time,” they continue, “values such as manaakitanga and kaitiakitanga and many other values from te ao Māori are woven into our cultural and social landscapes here, and shape our diverse ways of being New Zealanders.” One key manifestation of culture is story-telling, whether through movies, novels, press releases or even in tweets.
“Over the summer,” the team tells us, “we read a huge amount of climate fiction. Reading dozens of novels and short stories, we realised the power of stories to get the message of climate change across to communities. We see this also with many Māori narratives that offer insights into natural phenomena and spark so many enlightening ‘aha’ moments. They show us the possibilities for public engagement on climate change adaptation.”
Some Challenge researchers have talked about supporting their children to attend the recent high school students’ climate strike. The research trio takes this support one step further. “The recent School Strike 4 Climate showed us that our young people ‘get it’. It’s time the adults came through too… Wouldn’t it be great to work with those who currently have no say in the electoral process to develop plans, policies and recommendations for action on climate change and climate adaptation?”
This interview first appeared in Kia Urutau: The magazine of the Deep South Challenge, May 2019.
Extreme storms are likely to become stronger, more frequent and more damaging as our climate changes. These storms can cause real harm to communities and entire regions. Increasingly damaging extreme weather events also pose long-term sustainability challenges for public risk transfer mechanisms (such as the Earthquake Commission or EQC). This seminar with Ilan Noy (Victoria University of Wellington) will provide an overview of his research into climate change and the EQC.
Over the last 20 years, the EQC has paid out over $240 million, on more than 17,000 claims, to households affected by non-earthquake disasters (for landslips, storms or floods).
The team’s findings suggest that, regardless of which future climate scenario we end up with, annual EQC liabilities for extreme weather are likely to increase. That increase could be up to 18%, though the team’s research also suggests even this is likely to be an underestimation.
Furthermore, using three recent extreme events as case studies, Ilan will explain the research findings around whether EQC insurance pay-outs have supported households and communities to recover after extreme weather events. In general, this research suggests that EQC insurance is serving its purpose, and is protecting households from the adverse financial impact of extreme weather events.
About our presenter
Ilan Noy is the Chair in the Economics of Disasters and a Professor of Economics at Victoria University of Wellington. His research and teaching focus on the economic aspects of natural hazards, disasters and climate change, and other related topics in environmental, development and international economics. He is the founding Editor-in-Chief of Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, a journal published by SpringerNature. He previously worked at the University of Hawaii, and has consulted for the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, UNISDR, the International Monetary Fund and ASEAN.
Physical hubs:
NIWA Wellington: VC Conference Room*
NIWA Christchurch: VC TerraNova Room
NIWA Lauder: VC Computer Room
University of Auckland: Room 301-411
University of Canterbury: Meremere 411, School of Law Building
University of Otago: VC Room 312, Physics Department
*Our presenter will be speaking from this hub.
Please note, all visitors to NIWA must sign in on arrival.
We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub and would like to test your VC facility prior to the seminar.
A full suite of research papers has just been released looking at the broad question of liability for damage caused by sea level rise. The reports are the work of legal researcher Catherine Iorns (Victoria University of Wellington), whose Deep South Challenge project “Sea level rise, housing and insurance: Liability and compensation” arose from a 2017 “Deep South Dialogue” between researchers, the insurance sector and local and central government.
Iorns’ research examines the range of possible options available to local, regional and national government to adapt to climate change, and the question of who might be responsible for costs. Residential housing is an important focus, in light of the likely uninsurability of some coastal properties due to the increasing coastal hazards faced from sea-level rise and climate change.
Case Studies on Insurance and Compensation after Natural Disasters
This paper considers some examples of where financial risks to property have fallen both in New Zealand and overseas as a result of some natural disasters, particularly flooding. Pre-existing schemes are important for discussing possible future policy responses as they are and how they could be adapted for new and different natural hazards. This paper examines ways that risk, damage, cost and liability currently fall under different schemes. Private insurance, state supported insurance, the Public Works Act 1981 and council liability could be used to share losses of value and utility of land. Each of them has weaknesses.
However, they could be used, adapted and/or combined to create a framework to deal with loss of value and utility of land due to sea-level rise. If any government subsidy scheme were to be adopted, it would need to avoid the problems of previous compensation schemes here and overseas, and be carefully designed to enable people to assess and manage the risks to their homes and communities fairly. What is fair won’t be determined by analysis of what is currently legal, but needs to be the subject of a wider discussion.
Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise: Local Government Liability Issues
This report addresses the legal framework surrounding local government responsibilities to adapt to the coastal hazards associated with the sea-level rise from climate change. Significant work has already been done in this area, including a legal opinion from Simpson Grierson for LGNZ, and other academic work on individual elements of the legal framework. This paper tries to pull these together and summarise aspects that are relevant for the potential future actions necessary, including:
general considerations in climate adaptation measures, including relevant values, the precautionary principle, and direction and guidance on coastal hazards from central government
new developments – the prevention of them or placing conditions on development
coastal protection works in hazardous coastal areas
managed retreat, particularly the difficulties within the current legal rules and ways that it may be able to be undertaken
existing residential use rights and how these might be modified under a Regional Plan
the use of acquisition and information instruments
liability in negligence for council consenting decisions.
Sea-level rise and local government: Policy gaps and opportunities
This paper identifies some barriers, gaps and opportunities in the legal and policy options available to local government when managing the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change, and outlines the challenges facing local government in adapting to sea-level rise and climate change. Work undertaken to inform the paper includes research, engagement, and policy analysis over a two-year period, with findings tested in a survey of local authorities with coastal interface (territorial authorities) or whose authority included coastal marine areas (regional and unitary councils).
The most prominent message from this work is the desire for more commitment and involvement from central government. Territorial authorities in particular are seeking a stronger lead, such as legislative reform, clearer and more directive policy, clarification of responsibilities, guidance on the use of particular adaptation tools that currently exist, and a national environmental standard on coastal hazard management. Such direction is seen as critical not only to achieve a nationally consistent approach but also simply to achieve the adoption of appropriate climate adaptation measures.
The extent of EQC liability for damage from sea-level rise
This paper considers the extent to which damage from storm surges, flooding and landslips associated with sea-level rise is covered by insurance against natural disaster provided under the Earthquake Commission Act 1993 (the Act) administered by the Earthquake Commission (EQC).
Treaty of Waitangi duties relevant to adaptation to coastal hazards from sea-level rise
Māori communities are likely to be severely affected by sea level rise, with many rural Maori communities situated along the coast. Where communities have limited economic power and access to finance, and little or no insurance cover, effective policy options for uninsurable Māori housing are critical. This paper was released to the public in the second half of 2019.
New Deep South Challenge research on flood management funding shows a need for a more coordinated approach between regional councils, particularly with more storms and sea-level rise on the horizon. This seminar with Patrick Walsh (Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research) will explore council-run “flood mitigation schemes” – both their effectiveness in reducing flood damage and whether they’re a fair way to manage flood risk.
Flooding is the most economically damaging natural hazard in New Zealand, and costs will only increase as climate change continues to cause more flooding. Local and regional councils are responsible for reducing the impact of flooding, by building stopbanks, for example, or by stabilising rivers through planting. Councils are also required to consider flooding when making planning decisions about new property developments.
Flood mitigation work is expensive and most councils top up their funds by encouraging property owners in flood-prone areas to institute a flood mitigation scheme. Neighbourhoods can also campaign to institute a flood scheme in their area. These schemes use targeted rates to fund additional flood management.
Yet council-run flood mitigation schemes do not benefit everyone equally. Property owners in less affluent communities are less likely to join voluntary funding schemes. These communities are also less likely to have the leverage or influence needed to lobby their councils about flood risks or flood protection.
With sea-level rise increasing both the extent of land threatened by flood, as well as increasing the damage in existing flood risk areas, these concerns will only increase over time. Without careful management, inequality could increase alongside increased flooding and sea-level rise.
About our presenter
Patrick Walsh is a senior economist with Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research (MWLR). Patrick leads MWLR’s Empirical Economics cluste, a team of environmental and agricultural economists working on applied economic research. Patrick specialises in applied econometrics and cost-benefit analysis and researches a range of environmental and natural resource economics issues, including water quality, invasive species, conservation, afforestation and natural hazards. Patrick previously worked at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the National Center for Environmental Economics.
Physical hubs:
Manaaki Whenua Auckland: Totoo Mauri Room*
NIWA Wellington: VC Allen Board Room
NIWA Christchurch: VC TerraNova Room
NIWA Lauder: VC Computer Room
University of Auckland: Room 301-411
University of Canterbury: Meremere 411, School of Law Building
University of Otago: VC Room 312, Physics Department
*Our presenter will be speaking from this hub.
Please note, all visitors to NIWA must sign in on arrival.
We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub and would like to test your VC facility prior to the seminar.
Climate change threatens our transport system. We need clear rules and signals.
Love cars and hate trains? Love trains and hate planes? Love your bike but rely on trucks, trains, ships or planes to get the goods in and out of our communities? Either way, transport infrastructure underpins the social and economic fabric of modern life. And climate change is set to impact this infrastructure in multiple ways.
This Motu ‘Note’ is the result of a 2018 Deep South Dialogue investigating knowledge gaps around climate change and our transport system. The Dialogue brought together a range of stakeholders across central and local government agencies, as well from industries that are heavily reliant on transport, to tease out critical issues for the transport sector as it begins to look towards adaptation options.
We know that climate change will cause infrastructure damage and disruption to transport networks. But adaptation across the transport network is not simple. Transport assets are long-lived and the costs involved are significant. Uncertainty around the timing and location of climate impacts makes planning challenging. The varying ‘criticality’ of each component of the transport system is not uniformly measured, making it tricky to allocate resource for adaptation efficiently. Coordination across the different institutions that make up and rely on the transport system is no easy task. Nevertheless, there are opportunities for adaptation in the normal cycle of infrastructure build and renewal.
The Note sets out current thinking around the importance of taking a systems approach to adaptation in the transport sector. Inter-dependency between transport and other sectors means that delaying adaptation decisions also delays investments and decisions made in other parts of the economy, and may lead to poor decisions about where to build new infrastructure.
The Dialogue, and the subsequent research gaps identified, are helping the Deep South Challenge work with key stakeholders across the transport sector on their adaptation journey. It is something that is now front of mind for all key agencies that are responsible for the infrastructure we rely on and the Deep South Challenge can provide long-term climate information to help these agencies plan and adapt to ensure we can all keep moving in the future.
We make decisions based on what we think will happen in the future, and where climate is concerned, these decisions often involve a cost. There’s a balance between the costs involved in preparing for future change now, and the cost of being unprepared for change when it arrives. To assess this balance and prepare effectively, we need to understand how reliable the evidence from climate models is.
For all climate models, finite computing resources mean that some physical processes have to be heavily simplified or excluded from the calculations. It’s important that we understand the effect this has on our projections for future climate so that we know what to expect, and whether or not it might be slightly different to what the models tell us.
In New Zealand, our climate is strongly influenced by things that happen in the Southern Ocean. One example of this is the increased rate at which ice is melting around Antarctica, which is generally not captured in climate models. Fresh melt water entering a salty ocean sits at the surface, preventing deeper, warmer water from cooling through contact with the atmosphere. This impacts ocean circulation, which is how most heat is transported around the planet. The melt also cools the ocean surface and drives sea ice formation. White, reflective sea ice, covering an otherwise dark ocean, changes the amount of solar energy received by the ocean (rather than reflected back into space), and so impacts the rate at which the Earth warms up. There are good reasons for not including the increasing melt rate, which Shona will explain in this seminar. Nevertheless, we are interested in the effect of the omission on climate projections. Understanding this will help us to better understand what changes to expect in future. Shona will explain why we’re concerned that the ice melt is speeding up, and present some of the ways in which ignoring it affects what we predict for future climate.
As computing resources expand, models are developed so that more processes are included, making climate projections more accurate. Until recently, most development has taken place in the northern hemisphere, and has focused on areas particularly important to future climate there. Years of making and analysing observations in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have made New Zealand scientists world leaders in the region that is important to our climate here. We are using this expertise to improve the accuracy of our climate projections by including processes that we think make a difference to southern hemisphere climate. An example is the way that new sea ice forms around Antarctica every year. In most climate models, it forms more quickly and thinly than in reality, covering the ocean surface too soon, increasing its reflectivity and preventing the ocean from cooling. We are working to improve this by including a more realistic treatment of sea ice in the New Zealand Earth System Model.
About our presenter
Shona Mackie has a Physics MSci from Bristol University, an MSc in Glaciology from Aberystywyth University, and completed her PhD at Edinburgh University working with the UK Met Office on improving how we interpret satellite data for weather forecasts. She then moved into renewable energy consultancy, providing wind energy forecasts for utility companies and financial institutions. The eruption of Eyjafjallojokull volcano in 2010, and the chaos it brought to European air travel, brought Shona back to research to improve the way we detect, monitor and forecast volcanic ash in the air. Noting that climate change is probably the biggest threat to our society over the medium-to-long term, and how much we urgently need to understand in order to prepare for it, Shona saw an opportunity to contribute to the international research effort (and renew her interest in icy places). Two years ago, she moved with her husband to New Zealand to work at Otago University on sea ice and climate modelling.
Physical hubs:
University of Otago: VC Room 312, Physics Department*
NIWA Wellington: VC Conference Room
NIWA Christchurch: VC TerraNova Room
NIWA Lauder: VC Computer Room
University of Canterbury: Meremere 411, School of Law Building
*Our presenter will be speaking from this hub.
Please note, all visitors to NIWA must sign in on arrival.
We encourage you to set up your own hub and bring colleagues together to participate in the seminar. Please let us know if you do set up your own hub and would like to test your VC facility prior to the seminar.
