“Modelling clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry” – project summary by Laura Revell

Earth system models are computational representations of the physical, chemical and biogeochemical processes that occur on Earth. Spanning the global atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice, Earth system models allow us to develop the best possible picture of how physical climate change could play out and affect us here in Aotearoa New Zealand.

The establishment of an Earth system modelling community has been a great success of the DSC. Developing this community took time because Earth system models are highly complex. These are not tools that even a trained scientist can pick up and use right away. Learning how to run them – and better still, improve them – takes equal amounts of skill and time and about ten times as much patience.

Fully maintaining an Earth system model involves large teams of scientists and scientific programmers. Through the DSC we established a partnership with the UK Met Office, who have a world-leading model. In return, we’ve provided improvements to the model targeted over the Southern Ocean. This region of the world is important for determining New Zealand’s climate and weather extremes. However, because it is so remote – especially relative to the major climate modelling centres which are based in the Northern Hemisphere – it is poorly understood, leading to poor-quality simulations of the atmosphere and ocean.

New Zealand’s unique atmosphere

New Zealand’s air and surrounding atmosphere is unique. It is largely free of human-created sources of air pollution seen in many other countries: of 134 countries ranked by air quality in 2023, New Zealand came in at 129 (this is a list we want to be near the bottom of!). However, New Zealand’s air is heavily influenced by the ocean. Breaking waves provide a near-constant source of particulates or “aerosols” to the atmosphere. Smaller than the width of a human hair, aerosols can be transported by winds over large distances. Aerosols originating from the ocean are measured in air throughout New Zealand.

Although they are small, aerosols play an important role in climate change. Like miniature “disco balls”, they scatter sunlight back to space. They also seed cloud formation. Clouds play an important role in the climate system: some cool the surface, while others trap heat in the lower atmosphere. The type of cloud formed is partly influenced by the local aerosol environment. We know for example that clouds over the Southern Ocean are influenced by sulfate aerosol and marine organics. These compounds originate from the surface layer of the ocean, which teems with microscopic life. Gases and particulates emitted from the surface layer can have important consequences for atmospheric composition and climate. Earth system models typically struggle to represent ocean-aerosol relationships accurately over the Southern Ocean, which could explain why the models struggle to represent clouds accurately here too.

A better Earth system model for New Zealand

Through the DSC we’ve worked with the observations team who made cloud and aerosol measurements on the Southern Ocean onboard the RV Tangaroa to understand the atmospheric processes occurring in our backyard and how we should represent them in our Earth system model. We’ve improved how we model aerosol precursors at the ocean surface, emissions of sea spray aerosol from breaking waves, cloud formation and atmospheric chemistry. Through related projects we’ve even leveraged our expertise in Earth system modelling to understand how emerging contaminants such as microplastics aloft in the atmosphere could affect Earth’s climate.

Thanks to our research we can produce more accurate climate change projections for New Zealand and surrounds. We’ve passed on model developments to our partners at the UK Met Office to include in future releases of the Earth system model, which, along with the UK and New Zealand, is used in Australia, South Korea, India and several other countries. In doing so, we’ve also lined up the next generation of Earth system modellers in New Zealand. Collaborations in cloud and aerosol modelling between NIWA and the University of Canterbury have supported the training of young scientists at undergraduate, postgraduate and postdoctoral level. As a community we are well placed to support the need for climate change information in a warming world.

Climate change is happening. The future of Earth system modelling in New Zealand is uncertain.

With the National Science Challenges ending, many New Zealand research communities are struggling to find continuity. With recent refocussing of research priorities at NIWA, much of the country’s expertise in Earth system modelling now sits within the universities, and we are considering how to retain capability long-term in a post-DSC world. Continuing our partnership with the Met Office will maintain access to state-of-the-art Earth system modelling capability. Funding wise, joining international consortia, such as via New Zealand’s recent agreement with Horizon Europe, may be a sensible way forward. Bi- and multi-lateral arrangements also have precedents and could be explored. Ultimately, the scale of 21^st century challenges associated with climate change and novel airborne pollutants means it is firmly in the national interest to ensure that modelling capability in New Zealand remains as robust as the climate challenges the model predicts.

Project summary from the “Modelling Antarctic Sea Ice” project led by Inga Smith and Andrew Pauling.

Check out a handy fact sheet from this project, here.

What is sea ice?

Sea ice is the layer of frozen seawater covering the ocean surface in the northern and deep southern oceans. In Antarctica, the formation of sea ice each winter and melting each summer represents one of the largest seasonal changes on Earth. The total ice cover varies by about 16 million km² between the yearly minimum and maximum. That’s approximately 60 times the size of Aotearoa New Zealand.

The trend in annual mean Antarctic sea ice area has puzzled scientists during the satellite era (1979-present), with data showing a slight increase from 1979 to 2015, and a sharp decline since.

Animation made using model output from the hist-1950 simulation from the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1902

Sea ice is important to global climate because it reflects sunlight, insulates the ocean, and drives cold, salty water into the deep oceans.

What is the problem?

Climate models, which are our best tools for making projections of future climate, have failed to reproduce the observed trends in Antarctic sea ice. From 1979-2015 models showed declining Antarctic sea ice area, which didn’t match the slight increase observed from satellites. There have been different explanations for the discrepancy, for example, that current climate models do not represent the changing amount of land ice in the Antarctic ice sheet.

In the real world, Antarctica is losing mass over time, and as current models do not take this into account, they exclude an important source of fresh water flowing into the Southern Ocean. It has been suggested that this missing fresh water plays an important role in sea ice trends. Additional fresh water near the ocean surface increases the density gradient between the surface and deeper water, inhibiting vertical transport of relatively warm water from the depths, which results in surface cooling and warming of the deep ocean. This surface cooling then drives sea ice growth.

Our work as part of the Deep South National Science Challenge has been to investigate the effect of this missing fresh water on Antarctic sea ice trends in a state-of-the-art climate model.

Our work

We have been investigating the effect of missing fresh water from the Antarctic ice sheet on sea ice in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model, which forms the physical core of the New Zealand Earth System Model.

We have run experiments with artificially added fresh water under pre-industrial control conditions and in a scenario where atmospheric CO₂ increases by 1% each year.

In both scenarios, adding the fresh water results in greater Antarctic sea ice area relative to the simulations that exclude it, and also results in a decline in Antarctic Bottom Water formation. We have tested the effect of adding fresh water as either melting icebergs or basal melt of the ice shelves, and found that while the responses are similar, there is greater ocean warming at depth when the fresh water is added to the model as basal melt.

We have also found that adding fresh water was able to offset ocean warming due to increased atmospheric CO₂ over the continental shelf in several regions around Antarctica. The magnitude of the effect depends on the specific continental shelf geometry, the climate state, and the vertical distribution of the fresh water.

Finally, we have been contributing simulations to an international model intercomparison that aims to better understand the reasons for inter-model differences in the response to the fresh water. We have conducted several of the model simulations outlined as part of the Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative, and analysis and comparison to multiple other models from around the world has shown a large inter-model spread in the Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean temperature responses. This highlights the importance of this model intercomparison project for quantifying both the magnitude and uncertainty in the response to Antarctic meltwater.

What are the implications for Aotearoa New Zealand?

Impacts over land in New Zealand are small in our model simulations, but there is a significant reduction in warming of the ocean surface immediately to our southeast in both historical and future warming scenarios. Analysis of the impacts of this on moisture in the atmosphere and circulation are ongoing.

Climate change adaptation is often reduced to a question of monetary-based questions. Why did we let development happen in a risky area in the first place? How much would it cost to protect communities in place now, versus thinking in a longer-term way about where communities might feel and be safest?

But what happens when the most important things to us don’t have a price tag? How do we make sure the things we value most, our connections to whenua and tipuna, are properly factored into the decisions of governments and businesses?

With so much emphasis on the fiscal costs of adapting to climate change, or not adapting, we are losing important elements that should be included in that conversation.

Check out the report from our symposium held earlier this year; see below for podcast and video links to revisit our fantastic panel sessions and speakers!

Check out updated podcast content here. All the day’s great videos here.

Reframing the Costs of Climate Change

Work is underway across Aotearoa to quantify the costs of climate change, including the costs of adaptation or of failure to adapt. 

But how do we understand “cost” and will our economic paradigm really lead to effective climate adaptation? If we can’t or don’t quantify/consider some costs of climate change (and benefits of adaptation!), how can we ensure these are factored in our adaptation decisions? 

On the one hand, we need frameworks and tools that help us analyse our adaptation decisions (and indecisions). On the other, we need to consider the paradigm driving our current thinking, and the limits of current economic tools and frameworks to help us make collectively oriented, intergenerational decisions. 

Are we capable of making decisions that return to Papa and Rangi value greater than what we have taken?

What is a rolling symposium? 

This rolling symposium consists of preliminary podcasts, culminating in an all-day event, to generate evidence-based conversation around the economics of  adapting to climate change. In order to build towards an inspiring, productive and free-flowing conversation at our all-day event, we ask that you listen to each podcast wherever you get your podcasts (or catch up below, prior to the full day event).

Programme

We have now finalised our Ko Papa Ko Rangi programme. Please explore the full programme now, with some extraordinary keynotes and panelists and, of course, you!

Four-Part Podcast Series: Pre-Symposium Listening!

As well as right here, you’ll find these podcasts wherever you get your podcasts! Be sure to subscribe for further content to be released down the track.

Podcast 1 | Ko Papa Ko Rangi, with Ruia Aperahama, Māni Dunlop and Alex Keeble

Listen here:

The first podcast in our rolling symposium is a conversation with the Pou Tikanga of the Deep South Challenge Ruia Aperahama, journalist Māni Dunlop and Deep South Challenge engagement team member Alex Keeble, exploring the symposium’s name.

Within mātauranga Māori, the concept of “utu” suggests that if something is taken, permission must first be requested. Once taken, something of equal or greater value must be returned. Further obligations are in this way generated, and a relationship becomes reciprocal. In the pūrākau of Papa and Rangi, for choosing to separate his parents, Tāne repays them over and again, with his heart forever to Papa and his feet always striving for Rangi – an expression of ever growing love. With this image, we see Tāne as upside down. But perhaps it is we who are the wrong way up? Are we capable of making decisions that return to Papa and Rangi value greater than what we have taken?

Ruia Aperahama

Ruia (Ngāti Pikiahu, Ngāti Waewae, Ngāti Tūtemohuta, Tūrangitūkua, Ngāti Kurī, Te Aupouri, Pohutiare, Ngāti Kahu, Muriwhenua, Ngāti Whātua) is an award-winning singer, songwriter, visual artist and illustrator, respected for his knowledge of Tikanga and Te Reo Māori. Ruia is also the Pou Tikanga for the Deep South Challenge.

Māni Dunlop

Māni Dunlop, he uri o Ngāpuhi, has been a journalist and news presenter with RNZ for more than a decade. In 2020 she was made the first Māori presenter for a weekday programme on RNZ, for Midday Report, te Pūrongo o te Poutūtanga. She is the co-chair of Kawea te Rongo, the Māori Journalists Association, and often features at conferences and other events as a speaker on panels, or as MC and facilitator.

Alex Keeble

Alex (Pākehā) supports our Engagement Team to plan and create meaningful, whānau-friendly communications and engagement projects. Her approach to communicating about climate change and climate adaptation is informed both by research and by many years trialling tools and tactics at the flaxroots.

Podcast 2 | Ka mua ka muri, with Shaun Awatere, Jen Margaret and Māni Dunlop

Listen here:

To understand the paradigm within which we consider concepts of value, cost and risk, we need to grapple with our past and reconsider our present. In this second podcast, senior economist Shaun Awatere and Te Tiriti educator Jen Margaret look backwards and forwards, exploring how our economy and economic frameworks have evolved and been impacted by past decision-making, and what this could mean for our future with a changing climate.

Shaun Awatere (Ngāti Porou)

Shaun is a senior kairangahau with Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, holds the Climate Pou with Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga, and is on our Kāhui Māori. In his work, Shaun incorporates Māori values into economic decision-making for collective assets, enabling Māori organisations to make kaupapa Māori attuned decisions. He is currently engaged in research and policy to help prepare iwi and hapū for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Jen Margaret (Pākehā, of Cornish, Scottish, Danish & German descent)

Jen Margaret is a dedicated advocate and educator for Te Tiriti o Waitangi, and is the founder of Groundwork. A recipient of Winston Churchill and Loxley Fellowships, Jen has researched the work of non-indigenous allies in North America, Australia and Aotearoa. She is driven by the question posed by her mentor Mitzi Nairn, “How might we be the honourable people rangatira thought they were entering into relationship with in 1840?”

Podcast 3 | Insurance for adaptation, with Ronji Tanielu, Carolyn Kousky, Belinda Storey and Kate Turner

Listen here:

How do we currently price, pay for and transfer “climate risk”? Are these methods reducing danger or delaying what we do about it? Insurance only works when you can afford it; who will be (or is being?) most harmed if we don’t support different ways of protecting ourselves and our communities? This third podcast, with experts from within and outside of the insurance industry, interrogate the role of insurance now, and what it might need to play an effective and equitable role in climate adaptation.

Ronji Tanielu

Ronji is the principal policy advisor for the Social Policy and Parliamentary Unit of The Salvation Army, based in South Auckland. He is a committed Christian who works in advocacy and policy around housing, justice reform, addictions treatment, financial hardship, welfare reform, youth, and children. His approach is to be positively disruptive to advocate for change to government, corporations, and other agencies focused on meeting the needs of the people served by The Salvation Army.

Carolyn Kousky

Carolyn is Associate Vice President for Economics and Policy at Environmental Defense Fund in the United States. Dr. Kousky’s research examines multiple aspects of climate risk management and policy approaches for increasing resilience. She has published numerous articles, reports, and book chapters on the economics and policy of climate risk and disaster finance. She is a co-editor of A Blueprint for Coastal Adaptation and author of Understanding Disaster Insurance: New Tools for a More Resilient Future. Dr. Kousky has worked with many communities on resilience strategies and developing inclusive models for insurance and disaster recovery.

Belinda Storey

Belinda’s research centres on climate change risk. Her work focuses on the impact of escalating hazards on property prices and insurance availability, and the development of a new model for valuing property under climate change called “climate leases”. Belinda is Managing Director of both Climate Sigma, which conducts scenario analysis and asset valuation under climate change, and the Whakahura: Extreme Events and the Emergence of Climate Change research programme.

Kate Turner

Kate’s role, as the Challenge’s Climate Change Knowledge Broker, is to support researchers and stakeholders to navigate the often disaggregated world of climate change data, information and people. Kate is a Fulbright scholar from Ōtepoti (Dunedin) with a background in sea ice physics, and has spent time working with local knowledge holders on the ice in Alaska, investigating the extreme changes underway in their sea ice environment. She is motivated by science as a service to our communities and society, and how scientific tools and information can be mobilised for change.

Podcast 4 | Framing the costs of climate change, with Sacha McMeeking, Anita Wreford, Jodie Kuntzsch and Kate Turner

Listen here:

Everyone, from homeowners to policy makers, from marae committees to corporations, is asking, “How much will climate change cost us, and how much will it cost to adapt?” But are these the best questions? 

Do we risk embedding an unbalanced future, because we’re struggling to step back and consider the full extent of what’s at stake? What would effective adaptation actually look and feel like?

This fourth and final podcast, with key thinkers in the space,  examines what we know about “costing climate change”, what we don’t know, and how we can inspire momentum for change throughout our government, businesses and communities.

Sacha McMeeking

Sacha brings a serial entrepreneur’s approach to working with and for Iwi Māori. From instigating United Nations proceedings to architecting a Māori social enterprise fund and leading commercial negotiations, she is known for solution-building that meets Iwi Māori aspirations. Recognised as an emerging New Zealand leader, Sacha won the inaugural Fulbright Harkness Fellowship in 2010. Sacha is a change agent and compliments her varied background with a desire to support and grow the next generation of Māori scholars. 

Anita Wreford

Anita Wreford, Lincoln University, is an economist and the leader of our Impacts & Implications programme. She’s experienced across many areas of climate change, including economic evaluations of adaptation; community resilience to extreme weather events; and adaptation decision-making among various stakeholders.

Jodie Kuntzsch

Jodie is dedicated to the adaptation and creation of a blue economy for Aotearoa, and has led collaborative projects from across the global seafood industry. Her career has focused on bringing together stakeholders to develop economically viable solutions to the sector’s urgent environmental, social and climate related challenges. Her work spans four continents and hundreds of marine farms, fishing vessels, seafood factories and businesses.

Kate Turner

Kate’s role, as the Challenge’s Climate Change Knowledge Broker, is to support researchers and stakeholders to navigate the often disaggregated world of climate change data, information and people. Kate is a Fulbright scholar from Ōtepoti (Dunedin) with a background in sea ice physics, and has spent time working with local knowledge holders on the ice in Alaska, investigating the extreme changes underway in their sea ice environment. She is motivated by science as a service to our communities and society, and how scientific tools and information can be mobilised for change.

Full-day symposium

Registrations are fully booked out. (We will be releasing videos of our keynotes and panels after the event, via our YouTube channel).

9-9.30am | Registrations, Tea & coffee, Sponsor a seedling

As a small gesture towards reciprocity, we’ll be inviting all participants to sponsor native seeds or a native tree. We’ll facilitate this on the day.

9.30-9.45am | Welcome and whakatūwhera

With our host for the day, Māni Dunlop

9.45-10am | Keynote: How is our current economic pathway creating our climate future?

We’ve invited a very special and internationally renowned guest to speak to the challenges ahead of us, whether we change our change our thinking or not, but especially if we do not.

Koko Warner

Koko Warner is a climate change expert who specialises in human migration and displacement. She has worked in the United Nations for over 16 years, directing research on climate change and migration, and climate risk management, before joining the secretariat to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to supervise the climate impacts, vulnerabilities and risk policy workstreams in its adaptation division. Koko is currently leading UN work to implement the IOM Migration Data Strategy 2020–25 by bringing together IOM’s data expertise on data collection, analysis and sharing; migration data governance; and forecasting, among others. 

Koko has contributed to understanding, managing, and informing policy about adverse climate impacts, climate change and migration, and loss and damage. Koko holds a PhD in economics from the University of Vienna and in 2014, was named by the International Council for Science as one of the top 20 women making contributions to climate change debate.

10-11.10am | Panel: A wider lens: How do we conceptualise the costs of climate change?

We know that work is getting underway across Aotearoa to quantify the costs of climate change, including the costs of adaptation or of failure to adapt. But how do we understand “cost”? Does it encompass the fullness of our environmental, human, social, cultural (and financial) worlds that are central to our experiences of and response to this crisis. Can our current economic thinking really lead to effective climate adaptation? If we can’t or don’t consider some costs, how can we ensure these are factored in our adaptation decisions?

Kiri Dell (Ngāti Porou)

Dr Kiri Dell is a Senior Lecturer in the Business School at the University of Auckland. She is a Ngāti Porou woman living in her tribal territory of Ruatōria. Her main passion is working with whānau and activating their aspirations for whenua Māori. She holds various director, trustee and board roles across a number of organisations, and is a chair of the Indigenous Caucus of the Academy of Management. She has a lively and large whānau, which enables her to play the many roles of mum, aunty, daughter, sister, cousin and niece.

Ilan Noy

Ilan has been the Chair in the Economics of Disasters and Climate Change at Victoria University of Wellington since 2013. His focus is on the economic aspects of natural hazards, disasters, and climate change, and other related topics in environmental, development, and international economics. He is also the founding Editor-in-Chief of the journal Economics of Disasters and Climate Change. He has consulted for the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, UNDRR, the IMF and ASEAN. 

Mark Baker-Jones (Ngāpuhi, Ngāruahine)

Mark is a world-leader in climate change regulatory and policy risk, and Kaitohutohu Panoni Āhuarangi (Climate Advisor) with Te Whakahaere. Mark was political advisor to the Climate Change Minister during the development of NZ’s climate change legislative regime. Mark has held senior legal roles in some of the world’s most prestigious law firms, and has published widely on climate legal risk. He has unique insights into climate change legal risk, policy and regulation, particularly for the financial sector.

11.10-11.30am | Morning tea

Enjoy a light kai and return to your tables for our workshop session.

11.30am-12.45pm | Workshop: The experts are as lost as the rest of us!

A workshop to support you to uncover the drivers for and barriers to climate adaptive approaches, and brainstorming creative solutions.

12.45-1pm | Transition risk!

Our host Māni Dunlop will help you transition from workshop to lunch, energised enough to return with focus for our afternoon session.

1-2pm | Lunch

Earth-friendly kai from some of our best local producers.

2-3.10pm | Panel: Funding and financing the future

In the end, how can we overcome the current barriers to investment in and funding for climate adaptation? If we consider that the “costs” of climate change include environmental, human, social, cultural and financial costs, what innovative solutions are, or could be in play to respond equitably and effectively to this crisis? In this panel, we bring together possibilities and provocations that interrogate government policy levers, alternative business strategies, and private sector mobilisation.

Riria te Kanawa

Riria is a partner at KPMG, whose work focuses on simplifying the complex so clients are better placed to make clear, focused and guiding strategic choices, map the pathway to achievement, and most importantly, execute. In a world of constant change, Riria helps clients to challenge their own status-quo and bring a customer- rather than a process-centric lens to their work. Riria is passionate about working with Māori, considering how business approaches and measures of success can better reflect our Māori worldview as we pursue the perfect balance between people, planet and pūtea.

John Reid (Ngai Tahu)

John leads research programmes attempting to solve complex socioeconomic problems by utilising systems thinking and indigenous wisdom traditions. He has a particular interest in relationships between human and non-human beings and the role of appropriate technologies and insight in generating symbiosis between them. Currently, John leads national research programmes that bring together science, industry, and indigenous communities to address sustainability challenges related to New Zealand’s oceans, freshwater, land and biodiversity.

Jo Kelly

Jo is Chief Executive of Toitū Tahua, the Centre for Sustainable Finance. Jo has delivered cross-continent sustainability initiatives between some of the world’s best known business leaders. Jo is also on the B Lab Australia New Zealand Board and the National Advisory Board for Impact Investing. In 2011 Jo managed establishment of The B Team, which led the first calls from business for Net Zero by 2050 and an ambitious Paris Agreement. On returning home to Aotearoa NZ Jo spent four years with Deloitte New Zealand. Jo is of Ngati Tuwharetoa, Scottish and Finnish descent.

David Hall

Dr David Hall is Climate Policy Director at Toha with expertise in climate action, land use change, sustainable finance and just transitions. He has a DPhil in Politics from the University of Oxford and has additional roles as Adjunct Lecturer at AUT University’s School of Social Sciences & Public Policy, member of the Forestry Ministerial Advisory Group, Contributing Author to IPCC AR6 WG2, and Principal Investigator for AUT’s Living Laboratories Programme of nature-based solutions. Previously he has worked with a diverse range of public and private sector stakeholders on climate innovation and publishes widely in a range of academic and public-facing media, which includes the 2022 report, Adaptation Finance: Risks and Opportunities for Aotearoa New Zealand.

3.10-3.40pm | Afternoon tea

Enjoy a pick-me-up before our final keynote and brainstorming sesion.

3.40-4pm | Keynote: Sounds great, but can any of these ideas really work?

Firebrand finance journalist Shamubeel Eaqub will speak off the cuff, attempting to draw in the threads, expose them to the sun and the wind, and provide his perspective on the arguments and ideas of the day.

Shamubeel Eaqub

Shamubeel is an experienced economist who makes economics easy. He is a thought leader unafraid to take a contrarian view. An engaging and knowledgeable speaker, Shamubeel is a regular and respected contributor to media, government and business sector discussions on economic and strategic matters. He holds a BCOM with honours in Economics from Lincoln University and is also a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). Shamubeel has authored Growing Apart: Regional Prosperity in New Zealand, and co-authored Generation Rent and The New Zealand Economy: An Introduction.

4-4.45pm | Reflections

A brainstorming session to ensure we have captured questions that haven’t been answered, gaps in knowledge and research, contradictions and paradoxes, and to explore some practical options for change in your every day work.

4.45-5pm | Closing

We come back together to close the day and set intentions for the future.

5pm onwards | Refreshments at Te Papa

We invite you to enjoy refreshments and some more casual kōrero, to wind down for the weekend after an epic and hopefully inspiring day.

The Deep South Challenge is releasing the symposium report on our November 2023 conference, Adapting Aotearoa: Towards a climate resilient land and food system.

This event took place in Christchurch over two days, and saw participants across the agriculture, farming and food production sectors, meet and kōrero with academics and other professionals, to explore innovative solutions for building climate resilience and a deeper understanding of the urgency for adaptation in our agricultural practices.

We were privileged during the conference to hear from veteran journalist and climate change thinker Rod Oram, who tragically died this year (2024). Sessions from the conference were recorded, and are now available. They include Rod’s key note, and our two expert panels.

Our symposium report includes a dedication to Rod Oram.

Story by Nadine Anne Hura (via The Spinoff)

The Deep South Challenge is producing a podcast that will capture the stories of some of the researchers and communities working in our Vision Mātauranga programme. Our Kaitakawaenga Nadine has been travelling the country, listening to their kōrero. [READ on thespinoff.co.nz]

There’s a kind of awe that hits you when you understand the scale of the loss and the commitment required to heal and recover.

Yet, over and over again, people I spoke to reiterated that hope on its own isn’t the thing keeping them going. “Hope is abstract,” Shirley Simmonds of Ngāti Huri told me. She has recently made the move home to Pikitū with her whānau and is deeply attached to the shovel with which she’s she’s helped to plant the beginnings of a food forest, and also tree seedlings on land that was once – and will eventually again be – blanketed in native ngahere. “Hope needs to be activated through work,” Simmonds said. “Sovereignty is inherently practical. The solutions are within us – kei a tātou te rongoā.”

The podcast will be available in March 2024, co-hosted by Ruia Aperahama.

Adapting Aotearoa: Towards a climate resilient land and food system

Brought to you by the Deep South Challenge in collaboration with Resilience to Nature’s Challenges and Our Land and Water, this unique event brings together researchers and stakeholders from the primary sector, academia and government to explore innovative solutions for building climate resilience and deeper understanding of the urgency for adaptation in our agricultural practices. 

Discover the latest research findings and practical approaches aimed at creating a sustainable and resilient primary sector and food system in the face of climate change challenges. Engage in thought-provoking discussions, and networking opportunities for enduring connection, collaboration and knowledge exchange. 

The role of the National Science Challenges has been to bridge the gap between research and practice, empowering our communities to adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing climate. Don’t miss this invaluable opportunity to contribute to a more sustainable future for our land, food, and livelihoods.

Join us for an exciting and informative symposium on 20 November 2023, at the Christchurch Town Hall – Please note this event has reached it’s capacity. If you would like to register interest still, click through the registration link and share your details. Thank you.

Programme

Click the + to expand each section.

9.30 am | Welcome and opening address

Our event MC Andy Reisinger will welcome us to the day followed by an opening address by Anne Haira.

Andy Reisinger

Andy is Commissioner with the Climate Change Commission. Andy was also Deputy Director (International) at the New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, working in partnership with industry to develop and extend ways of reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Andy was until recently a member of the Bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and served as coordinating lead author in two major IPCC climate change reports. His research focuses on the role of agriculture in domestic and international climate change policy, climate change impacts and adaptation, and on uncertainty and its implications for decision-making.

Anne Haira

Anne has had a rich and diverse career spanning the public and private sectors and has developed a strong track record of building strategic partnerships. She is part of the executive leadership team at MfE where she leads the Climate Policy division and Partnerships and Public Affairs division. A core focus of her role as leader of Partnerships and Public Affairs is to tangibly shift mindsets and change behaviours in New Zealand through effective partnering and engagement within the public and private sectors.

9.50 am | Key notes

Lauren Rickards will address the urgency and complexity in adaptation with insightful perspectives from Australia, followed by Rod Oram on global context and perspectives.

Lauren Rickards

Lauren Rickards is a human geographer and ecologist by training now working primarily on climate change futures and related questions about the urban-rural and human-nature relationship. With degrees from the Universities of Oxford and Melbourne, and experience in the private sector, Lauren conducts research on many of the social dimensions of climate change, particularly in the water and agri-food sectors and with collaborators in other disciplines and organisations. Lauren advises a wide range of groups in government, business and the NGO sector on climate change issues and is a Lead Author with the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change. She is currently the Director of the La Trobe University Climate Change Adaptation Lab.

Rod Oram (1950-2024)

Rod Oram had more than 40 years’ experience as an international business journalist. He was a frequent public speaker on deep sustainability, business, economics, innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship, in both NZ and global contexts.

Rod was a founding trustee of Akina Foundation, which helps social enterprises develop their business models in areas of sustainability. Sadly, Rod passed away in March 2024, in the months following his talk at Adapting Aotearoa.

10:40 am | Morning tea

Enjoy a light kai and a chance to digest the mornings discussions.

11:00 am | Panel: Enabling transformational adaptation in the primary sector: Possible, Plausible, Preferable?

Are there limits to adaptation in Aotearoa? Is it plausible: and if so, what is stopping us? And just what IS the future we want? A series of experts will present short talks on hot topics before being joined by Lauren Rickards and Rod Oram for a robust panel discussion on the challenges of enabling effective adaptation.

Nicholas Cradock-Henry

Nicholas Cradock-Henry is the Principal Social Scientist with GNS Science and Co-leader, Resilience, Policy & Governance for Resilience to Nature’s Challenges. He received his PhD in Geography from the University of Canterbury (2011), and holds a Masters of Environmental Science and post-graduate diploma in Geographic Information Systems. His doctoral research investigated adaptation to climate change and other, non-climatic stressors in agricultural systems in eastern New Zealand.

John Reid 

John (Ngāti Pikiao; Tainui) leads research programmes attempting to solve complex socio-economic problems by utilising systems thinking and indigenous wisdom traditions. John’s programmes bring together science, industry, and indigenous communities to address sustainability challenges related to New Zealand’s oceans, freshwater, land and biodiversity.

Jenny Christie

Jenny is the Principal Scientist Climate Impacts at the Ministry for the Environment. She has an extensive background in climate adaptation at a central government level, having worked previously for the Department of Conservation and  was responsible for developing their adaptation and research plans.

12:15 pm | Lunch

Earth-friendly kai from some of our best local producers.

1:15 pm | Panel discussions: Adaptation in action – using research to adapt and transform?

Jo Sheridan

Jo Sheridan is the Demonstration Manager at Owl Farm and has over 20 years’ experience in the dairy industry – farming, consulting, and working in education and extension projects. Owl Farm is a 140ha dairy farm at St Peter’s School Cambridge on the banks of the Waikato river, with a strong focus on achieving environmental outcomes while maintaining a sustainable balanced business. Jo’s role is to collect and interpret the farm data and evolve the strategy along with industry partners to ensure business resilience. More at www.owlfarm.nz.

Kate Acland

Kate is the Director of Beef + Lamb New Zealand. Kate and husband David own and operate Mt Somers Station, a large and highly diversified farming operation running sheep, cattle, deer, dairy and a stand-alone honey operation in the Mid Canterbury foothills.

Tasman Gillies

Tasman (Ngāi Tahu – Ngāti Wheke, Ngāti Kahungunu) is a Programme Director at Toha, exploring data & collaboration tech strategies to surface climate change & biodiversity action.

Hilton Collier

Hilton Collier (Ngati Porou) is an experienced Farm Management Consultant whose professional career has supported landowners in Te Tairawhiti to develop and better manage their lands.

2:15 pm | Future directions

A brainstorming session to ensure we have captured questions that haven’t been answered, gaps in knowledge and research, contradictions and paradoxes, and to explore some practical options for change in your every day work. We come back together to close the day and set intentions for the future.

3:15 pm | Afternoon tea

Enjoy a pick-me-up before our final panel discussion.

3:30 pm | Panel discussions: Incentivising action

Jack Bisset

Jack is leading on the strategy aspects of the climate-related disclosure standards for the External Reporting Board (XRB). Jack has been working in climate policy for the last 5 years including work on macroeconomic modelling, emissions trading, sustainable finance and climate-related disclosures.

Karen Lavin

Karen has more than 15 years’ experience working at the science-policy interface on a range of issues relating to climate change and the environment. She is currently the Adaptation Manager at He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission, and is focused on establishing the Commission’s independent adaptation and monitoring functions.

Tim Henshaw

Tim has been the Head of Agribusiness at Westpac since 2020. In this role, he oversees all on farm lending to this key sector of the New Zealand economy.

Trecia Smith

Trecia is the Chief Policy Adviser to the Deputy Director-General, Policy and Trade at the Ministry for Primary Industries.

4.35-5:30pm | Refreshments

We invite you to enjoy refreshments and some more casual kōrero.

Setting the scene

Check out our Adapting Aotearoa info sheet for links and explainers about all the research relevant to our symposium, conveniently collected in one place! Also, you can find recordings of the two lead-in webinars at the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges YouTube page, here.