Author: sam prescott

Te Tirohanga o Ngā Tohu: Taranaki Climate Resilience Tool Development is a project that developed a climate change tool based on iwi priorities, values and environmental tohu identified by Ngāti Mutunga, Ngāti Tama and Ngāti Maru by undertaking the following actions.

1. Summarising Māori ways of caring for their local taiao (environment).
2. Identifying local environmental tohu with hapū/iwi.
3. Developing a kaupapa Māori tool that supports understanding the local environment and tohu, under a changing climate.
4. Illustrating how process-based modelling alongside a kaupapa Māori based tool can

help inform biodiversity management, under a changing climate.

This project embraces a Kaupapa Māori methodology in partnership with local iwi, and is underpinned by Māori philosophy and principles, centres the validity and legitimacy of a Māori world view, and seeks to produce useful and transformative research.

The study design was co-developed with our iwi partners, and used wānanga as our research method. We held two wānanga with our iwi partners, and their iwi members, to address the key research aims/objectives. An additional wānanga put the tool into practice, as we harvested, prepared and created manu tukutuku, facilitating kōrero on climate change impacts observed in the local taiao.

Results

Ngāti Mutunga, Ngāti Tama and Ngāti Maru identified resilience as their ability to practice local tikanga and the ability to be adaptive with that tikanga in a changing climate. Their resilience is not merely about ‘bouncing back from adversity’ but involves a dynamic and adaptive process of reconnecting with the mātauranga (knowledge) and practices that their tūpuna had and integrating them into contemporary conservation efforts. Being connected to and understanding the natural world around them, enables resilience and adaptability.

Through the wānanga process we identified:

• The aspirations of the three iwi groups with regard to climate change.
• Which tools and frameworks are currently available to meet these aspirations/needs.
• Whether these tools meet the needs of the iwi.
• This then led to the development of the manu tukutuku (traditional kite) tool that could be used to identify and evaluate environmental tohu aligned to iwi aspirations, vulnerable habitats and species, social and cultural values and included the community through a multi-disciplinary mātauranga-based approach.
• Implementing the tool through wānanga, helped to identify some key vulnerable habitats and facilitated discussion on mātauranga-informed restoration approaches in northern Taranaki.

Manu tukutuku: Weaving together the tohu of change

Manu tukutuku can be utilized as a tool for incorporating environmental, social, and cultural components in addressing climate change and restoring local taiao in northern Taranaki by empowering and supporting communities through understanding local environments affected by and mitigating climate change impacts.It allows iwi to plan for site restoration and resource allocation, while also promoting collaboration and upholding mātauranga-a-iwi and tikanga.This traditional tool aligns with the way people traditionally engage with their local environment and resources, providing knowledge on collecting, preparing, and decorating the manu tukutuku using local pigments and paints from the whenua.

The infographic below has the manu tukutuku as the central focus, with each point along the top, reflecting the key values used to evaluate climate change tohu in northern Taranaki that include:

• Wellbeing connected to whānau, hapū and iwi
• Connection to ngā atua and tupuna
• Tangata whenua connected to te taiao.

These values will help evaluate whether climate change tohu meet the needs of local iwi when it comes to understanding their taiao and future planning.

Figure 1: Copyright of this illustration is with League of Live Illustrators. Consent must be sought from League of Live Illustrators and Manaaki Whenua Land Care Research for any image reproduction or use.  Manu tukutuku climate change tool for evaluating local tohu to prioritise resources for climate resilience. The three key values are shown along the top of the manu tukutuku.

Conclusions

For Ngāti Mutunga, Ngāti Tama and Ngāti Maru, climate resilience in northern Taranaki is linked to environmental, social and cultural tohu. The interactions of people with place, with cultural practices, and with mātauranga-a-iwi and atua domains from the mountains to sea all empower and support communities in the face of a changing climate. The manu tukutuku tool supports an understanding of local environments that are both affected by and can mitigate the impacts of climate change. Based on this information iwi can plan for and identify sites to restore; and also where to channel resources. The tool also provides opportunities for the use of other information and databases, using collaborative frameworks that uphold mātauranga-a-iwi and tikanga.

Winemaking is about balance, but climate change is already impacting the conditions under which growers can be confident about the quality of their grapes. Higher temperatures, less rainfall, new pests and disease and changes in water demand and supply create challenges for growers and wine makers. Although we know more and more about what sort of conditions we are likely to experience in the future, for some primary industries – like wine making and grape growing – climate change is going to happen alongside other shocks (like rising input costs), or stresses (like less water). Like any climate change adaptation story in Aotearoa New Zealand’s vitally important primary sector, the one around climate, water and wine is complex. But, ultimately, the pressures are clear – so what’s the right way to respond?

New Zealand is the world’s sixth largest exporter of wine, growing by nearly 25% between  2022 and 2023, to a record $2.4 billion. And it’s an industry under stress. This project looked at a range of issues coming together under changing climate conditions to add to our viticulture growing pains, and considered these in the context of other external pressures common across the primary industries, that have had our food producers adapting in one way or another for some time.

Drivers of change

The Marlborough wine region is located at the top of the South Island. It is the country’s best known and largest wine producing region. The area is characterised by a range of topography and aspect within its many valleys which combined with young and diverse soils and subsoils creates micro-variations across the region. Glacial advance and retreat over two millennia has resulted in a complex, terraced landscape comprised of river flats with free-draining alluvial soils, and clay and loam hillsides. It is a maritime climate with high sunshine hours, typically dry conditions – particularly during harvest (February-April) and protected from cold southerlies by mountain ranges to the south, providing ideal wine growing conditions. There are over 30,000ha of vines in Marlborough (around 2/3 of the national total), making it the country’s largest wine region. Much of the region is dominated by a single varietal (Sauvignon blanc), which accounts for 72% of New Zealand’s overall wine production — and 86% of what we export to the rest of the world.

Marlborough is one of the sunniest and driest regions in New Zealand, but is also prone to earthquakes – with four major tectonic faults (Hope, Clarence, Wairau, and Awatere. Following their recovery from an earthquake in 2016, growers were interested in understanding future challenges. They recognised the need to adapt their practices to go on responding not only to known environmental and market pressure (labour, capital, infrastructure) but also new ones emerging as a result of changing rainfall, extreme weather and other impacts.

Many wine growers operate in small rural communities, where problems like housing and labour already compound to make things periodically difficult, but climate change is upping the ante.

This project asked: how likely are the impacts of climate change? How vulnerable are growers to these stressors? And: how can we use adaptation pathways planning to identify impacts and take action?

The approach

Adaptation involves taking action to avoid, withstand or benefit from current and projected climate changes and their impacts. To support adaptation planning, therefore, it is necessary to understand what future conditions are likely to be and consider the range of actions or steps to be taken in response to those changes. To help think about about the climate and environmental issues facing wine growers in Aotearoa New Zealand, this project used a multi-method approach including workshops, participatory engagement, a comprehensive literature review, surveys and grape phenology modelling – that is, exploring the life-cycle of grapes in detail to establish how cycles are changing, where in those cycles grapes are vulnerable to different climate change impacts, and what that means for overall production.

The idea of the multi-method approach was to seek a shared understanding of the issues at play, as well as to build capability and capacity for response, and to develop a suite of opptions for organising and executing that response. The results of the discovery process included detailed geospatial modelling, development of phenological indicators, adaptation opptions, and reporting on climate impacts and the implications of those.

What did we find?

Climate change is expected to result in warmer and drier conditions for Marlborough. When it does rain – it is likely to be more intense, which may lead to flooding and damage to critical infastructure. The wine industry will need to adapt to reduce climate risks and realise opportunities.

Like so many complex primary production systems, amassing information on impacts and implications of climate change gets messy very fast. The contant focus of this project had to be about wanting to help, so it was critical that findings would help with broad understanding, build a reliable and usable information base and help growers with planning. Ultimately, growers need decision-relevant science and actionable information.

And they know it.

It was very clear that experience and awareness of extreme weather and other climate impacts was growing; the industry was already very focused on this. We asked about experiences of drought, water ponding, changing temperatures and a range of other climate change indicators that might alter growing seasons or change the nature of the grapes – which in turn can have a massive impact on how a wine tastes. Over 70% of surveyed growers said both summer and winter temperatures had increased. More than half said the growing season had decreased. We tested this in Marlborough, as a focus area, but results across much of the country’s other wine-growing regions was similar.

It’s not only that we need the water consistently, [it’s also] the timing of needing the water. It’s also the availability of the water and future regulation. You just can’t bank on it anymore.

– Wine grower, Marlborough

One of the key issues for growers was water – this was on the mind of many we talked to or had input from. Many people referenced a significant drought event in 2019 and were able to talk about how reliability around wanter was changing; allocation, demand and predictability of supply had growers worrying about the future.

What does this all mean for wine?

To support adaptation planning, stakeholders identified a number of different adaptation options to ensure the long-term sustainability of wine making and grape growing in Marlborough. By involving stakeholders in the planning process, new ideas were generated, links between options were explored, and the ways in which actions might

be implemented were discussed.

This shows the emerging adaptation adaptation pathway for grape growing and wine making in Marlborough. It is based on stakeholders’ input and illustrates the decisions and actions that could be used to support adaptation. Implementing the pathway will require greater coordination between individual growers and wine makers, as well as local and regional councils, iwi, communities, and other primary industries.

The horizontal axis of the pathway shows both a timescale and expected changes. The range of adaptation options considered are listed on the left-hand side of the pathway. Against each option is a combination of dots and lines. ‘Decision points’ are indicated by a circle, showing the point in time at which a decision needs to be made between different options relative to the x-axis. This is based on the premise that as climate changes some options will become less suitable as adaptation measures and so new ones may be

required.

The dark green lines show the time period over which an option can usefully address the priority in question, while the light green lines indicate options for which some preparation may be required.  

We know that vines are more likely to grow under stressful conditions as the climate changes – and we know that this influences grape quality and yield. Unlike with other primary industries, like the dairy industry for example, there is much more sensitivity to the overall quality of the product.

Dairy is a volume commodity, whereas high value horiculture has a huge quality aspect – sugars, acidity, aroma – these are things that are impacted by changing climate, especially rainfall.

In another example, as we get more warm weather, we get earlier harvests and it yields grapes with more sugar but low acidity. Too late a harvest, and the opposite problem occurrs. “Harvest compression” means that as well as changes in the grapes themselves, growers are also competing for storage capacity and labour capacity – pressure comes on all these aspects of the system as a result of the shifting season.

These are all things that are impacting the reliability of the product. With a delicate product like wine, this is a serious concern for Aotearoa New Zealand’s reputation – not to mention the plight of individual growers who need to adapt.

All this is connected.

Adaptation must take into account systemic imapacts to generate a systemic response; but at this stage much of the thinking about climate change in viticulture is focused on the direct impacts of individual parts of the system – water, extreme weather, etc.

There is a real need in wine to close the gap between identification of the issues, understanding of the problems, decision-making and taking action to improve the long term prospects of the idustry. As always, incrementalism is the enemy of transformation, but as ever in primary sector adaptation, reality bites.

The snow that falls in the mountain regions of New Zealand is a major source of freshwater. The seasonal snowpack that develops is unique as it acts as a natural reservoir of water in winter, which is later released over spring and summer. Mountain rivers feed our largest hydro-electric power schemes and provide critical water for irrigation, especially during drought. Given how vital water resources are to New Zealand’s economic and social wellbeing, it is imperative that we have the right tools to accurately assess the contribution of seasonal snow to the water cycle.

To meet this need, this research has taken advantage of state-of-the-art observations of snow obtained from satellites, as well as developing a new modelling framework to assess how much snow is redistributed once it has fallen, to improve how the New Zealand Water Model handles changes in streamflow in alpine catchments in New Zealand. The New Zealand Water Model is currently the primary hydrological modelling tool being used to resolve how weather and climate control streamflow at both the catchment and national scale.

State-of-the-art snow observations using high-resolution satellite imagery

It may be surprising to many that until recently we have not had an efficient way to determine how much snow has fallen in our mountain regions. The sheer volume of snow that falls on the highest parts of the Southern Alps has made it very difficult to measure the quantity of snow that is being stored. However, the emergence of high-resolution satellite imagery has been a game changer and opened new possibilities to monitor changes in seasonal snow.

By using very detailed overlapping satellite imagery of the mountains through time, three-dimensional information of the terrain can be extracted from the images using a method known as photogrammetry. This technique has been used to detect changes in snow depth in the central Southern Alps, which has enabled the evolution of the snowpack to be resolved in detail for the first time.

The exact location of where the snow resides in this complex mountain environment can be resolved at a very high spatial resolution. This is critical as our climate changes as we now have the ability to map exactly where the snow is stored and whether some areas will be more susceptible to future warming than others by virtue of the location of the snow (e.g. its elevation, aspect) in the alpine landscape. The detailed mapping has also revealed how much snow is redistributed through processes such as avalanching and blowing snow, which has hydrological significance if the snow is stored longer in spring and summer.

A new modelling tool to assess the redistribution of snow

To better understand the complex spatial patterns of snow accumulation revealed from the satellite derived snow observations, a mass transport and deposition (MTD) model has been developed. The modelling of snow redistribution confirms that snowfall on its own cannot account for the patterns of snow accumulation observed in selected alpine catchments of the central Southern Alps. The new modelling tool has been used to reveal the quantity of snow being redistributed through avalanching and enabled improvements to be made in how the New Zealand Water Model represents the spatial variability of snow in its modelling framework.

Enhancing the representation of snow accumulation in the New Zealand Water Model

The New Zealand Water Model provides a sophisticated modelling framework to predict how much freshwater is available, where it has come from, and how quickly it moves through catchments in New Zealand. The satellite derived observations and modelling of snow developed in this research, in conjunction with atmospheric and snow observations from high elevation weather stations in the Southern Alps, have ensured the New Zealand Water Model now does a “much better job” of capturing snow accumulation and melt than previously. While mapping of snow depth from satellite imagery reveals the elevational gradients of snow storage in the headwaters of selected alpine catchments remain oversimplified in the New Zealand Water Model, it still has the ability to replicate observed patterns of streamflow well.

To provide robust projections of how water resources will be affected by climate change using the New Zealand Water Model, we need to know whether we are getting the right answers for the right reasons. The advances made in this research to reduce and account for uncertainty in the New Zealand Water Model ensure it can now be used more confidently to resolve the climate processes governing the contribution of seasonal snow to the water cycle. Crucially for all New Zealanders, the Deep South Challenge has provided a gateway to ensure robust hydrologic “storylines” will be available for use in decision making by government, communities and industry.

The team that worked on this project can tell you where sea level rise is going to most keenly impact New Zealand’s coastal infrastructure, and what the “tipping” point is, that signals significant loss. They understand concepts like “episodic inundation” and have been researching the impact of extreme sea level flooding events, as well as the more gradual effects of sea level rise over time, to understand what it means for our roads, our power supplies, our wastewater plants and our drinking water supplies.

In short: the news isn’t all that rosy.

But, what’s important is not that they understand it themselves, but that they’ve made a habit of sharing the information developed in Infrastructure disruption from coastal flooding so that decision-makers can make use of it.

What those decision-makers need to plan for represents a major shift for local councils, central government offiicals and for private asset owners: adaptation to climate change.

Their work in the Deep South Challenge has considered the impact of extreme weather and sea level rise in focused case studies, but also from a national perspective, producing a mapping tool that allows users to show how sea level rise might affect them and their communities under different scenarios.

These maps take into account projected sea level rise, as well as the movement of land (i.e. where land is subsiding, sea level rise is expected to have more of an impact) to give an overall picture of where our vulnerabilities are.

It’s no secret that in many places around Aotearoa New Zealand, the sea is encroaching on our built environment – often reported in terms of the mess it makes of coastal property frontage. But the scale and shape of this disruption into the future is now a lot more visible thanks to projects like this one.

Cascading failures

As scary as it is to think about the damage a massive inundation of salt water might have on, say, our water system, what the research team have been focused on is what that means for “multi-hazard resilience planning”. That is to say, conceptualising asset disruption as a result of rising sea levels is a pretty easy task – most people get that if a bridge is washed out during a storm, people might not be able to get home. In the latter years of the Challenge, we saw this happen with Cyclones Gabrielle and Hale. But what’s less easy to understand is the flow on effect of something like sea level rise on the greater roading network – and the sectors that rely on it.

A big focus of this project was mapping the impact on New Zealand’s roads. Our fuel network, for example, relies on the efficient operation of those roads for distribution. The team found in a “spatiotemporal” (i.e. where and over what time period) analysis of the risk of national road networks to episodic coastal flooding and sea level rise that road networks are on the “front line” for climate change. And, that “New Zealand’s direct economic risk was primarily driven by direct damage to local access, collector, and arterial roads.”

This finding essentially tells those with control over the maintenance of our roads (territorial authorities, and for highways, central government) that once this transport system is compromised, the impact on other aspects of our society and economy happen thick and fast. The data also shows this compromise could emerge earlier than otherwise predicted.

Understanding timelines and tipping points

One of the key issues with communicating about climate change and our immediate need to adapt – a central tenet of the Deep South Challenge – is that it can be difficult to reckon with impacts that may be decades away (however sure we are about their eventual arrival).

However, it’s not necessarily the immediacy of the event itself that requires our focus – it’s the length of time it takes to grapple with the administrative and real costs of making massive calls about how to deal with something that will cost billions. You can’t move a pump station or major highway overnight.

In a case study focusing on South Dunedin, this project assessed infrastructure vulnerability to the sea level rise events expected over the next century. A hundred years is a long time, but as we all know, those “1-in-100 year” events seem to be happening a lot more frequently than that.

Through this work, the research team were able to isolate an extreme sea level tipping point of 0.6m, “where direct loss of road access and electricity services is extensive, and causes indirect loss of telecommunication services. This also impacted the functionality of a key wastewater pumpstation servicing the wider region.”

Roads first, then electricity, then communications, then wastewater. With this understanding of a likely chain of events in these scenarios, decision-makers are empowered to do the required planning, and calculate the likely, significant, costs.

Read and access more resources from this project here.

Managed retreat

The insurance industry is in the process of moving towards a system where flood risk is priced into premiums based on how likely it is that individual houses will be flooded. This will result in unaffordable insurance premiums or loss of access to flood insurance for those most affected.

Insurance markets currently work on a system of pooling risk: everyone pays a regular premium into a collective fund that insurance companies invest and re-insure so that when one or two people experience loss, they get paid out. But in large flood events, when so many people are at risk of loss all at once and its predictable which houses will be affected, these companies need to think about alternative ways to organise the services and policies that they offer.

One of the ways that insurers can manage the impacts from climate change is by exploring risk-based pricing.

Kendon Bell (Ngāti Maru, Ngāti Porou ki Harataunga ki Mataora) and Selai Letica’s (Ngāpuhi, Ngāti Porou, Tonga) work on risk-based approaches considers what would happen if insurance companies continue the trend of breaking down insurance policies by specific and individual risks, rather than the collective way that risk was spread in the past.

It’s not for everyone

This change in approach potentially has a significant impact on pricing for Māori whanau and marae communities who are spread disproportionately around vulnerable flood areas, like undeveloped coasts and flood plains.

One of the problems with insurance in the age of climate change adaptation is equity – in that already inequitable market forces are becoming more inequitable.

Community researcher Selai Letica focused on the role of insurance as a means of “financial adaptation”, but pointed out through her research that the significant drop in Māori home ownership since the 1960s means there have been less opportunities for whanau to engage with insurance as a tool to manage risk.

Financial literacy, she says, is an intergenerational issue, and understanding how insurance markets can be embraced to protect whanau is now a part of our resilience too. There are sometimes differences in how Māori respond to weather impacts – as tohu (environmental signs) – compared to technical responses to climate change impacts. She also sees this as an opportunity for Māori to play with a “full hand” as they grapple with these issues, taking the best from an increasing understanding of and connection to mātauranga, but also making use of the financial tools available in a market-driven economy.

What does the data say?

Modern flood modelling allows risk to be priced with more accuracy than ever before, and this was the focus of Kendon Bell’s part of the project. Flooding data simulations are available for purchase on the commercial market and Kendon used these as a basis for exploring how different groups could be affected by a risk-based insurance pricing system.

Kendon’s research partners from NIWA and RMS modelled risk-based premiums for inland and coastal flooding. These premiums represent what insurers might charge under a risk-based pricing system.

What it found was that under a risk-based model, taking all of these factors into account, a lack of equity is stark – Māori are 34% more likely to have a higher flood insurance premium, and those with lower material wellbeing are even more likely to experience a higher premium.

What does this mean for the future of the market?

Some insurance companies have already made progress in changing where and how they offer coverage. The business incentives of this are that insurers want to get the worst risk off their books first. However, there hasn’t been a noticeable widespread move to a different model or major examples of insurance withdrawal, leaving those in the most vulnerable areas uninsured.

This research hints at concerning changes to come. The impacts of this for government also mustn’t be understated – where loss can’t or won’t be covered by the private insurance market, often it’s the government who picks up the tab.

As Selai and Kendon’s work shows, understanding the complexities of this market is critical for marae and whanau who need to consider the fate of individually and collectively-owned property. This work sits in a collection of research mahi in the Deep South Challenge that looks at insurance and related issues, and it’s an area of the adaptation conversation that will need to continue at every level of society so that the benefits of climate adaptation are shared fairly.

Summary of the “Embedding adaptation” project

Extreme weather events and disruptions compounded by climate change are becoming more commonplace. Communities along low-lying shorelines and near rivers are experiencing escalating risk. Building enduring community-based adaptive capacity is therefore vital. No single group can do this on their own. Partnerships that account for different contexts must be built between at-risk residents, mana whenua, local government, and stakeholders like Ministries, NGOs, and private sector bodies.

Community-based adaptation planning should enable short-term action and keep future options open; account for uncertainty, complexity, dynamism, and contestation; and identify pathways to appropriate longer-term action. Efforts to institutionalise adaptation pathways planning in Aotearoa New Zealand have, however, largely ignored how power and politics shape community-based adaptation interactions.

Aim and approach of this project

This project examined how adaptation politics and practices shape community-local government-tangata whenua interactions in a bi-cultural nation bound by Te Tiriti o Waitangi obligations. We focused particular attention on barriers and enablers for strengthening community-based adaptive capacity by building trusting and enduring relationships.

We compared experiences in four communities: Pūtiki and Tangimoana in Manawatū-Whanganui; and Waitōtara and Rohutu Block in Taranaki. Working in partnership with mana whenua, community organisations and members, and governing authorities from local and regional levels, we embarked on adaptation pathways planning with each at-risk community. Context-specific circumstances shaped progress in each locality. In some settings this project was a catalyst for new collaborative adaptation planning and action. In others, the project complemented work already underway. Importantly, groups in each setting are progressing community-based adaptation beyond the life of the Deep South project.

We identified barriers and enablers for building upon and strengthening the adaptive capacity and resilience of whānau, hapū, iwi, communities, and local government. We explored innovative ways to mobilise communities, mediate and harness divergent capabilities, reconcile contending worldviews, values, and interests, and reach agreement on ways forward. We learned lessons about how to institutionalise empowering adaptation pathways planning and action.

Research-based adaptation has often been experienced as ‘extractive’ and geared towards techno-scientific analysis and ‘outsider’ solutions rather than being culturally appropriate and empowering. Our approach was founded on participatory action research and co-design based on critical social science and analysis of power, politics, vulnerability, Te Ao Māori, and local government practice. 

10 key findings

1. Community-based adaptation planning is relationship building. It is stepwise and takes time. It
   is not linear. It is founded on and ideally led by mobilised at-risk communities, with enduring
   support by leaders in local government and tangata whenua, and other stakeholders.
2. Adaptation is a negotiation process. Commitments to work together, and agreed principles for
   collaboration, need to be recorded as a Statement of Intent or Memorandum of Understanding.
   Signing such an agreement is a moment to celebrate. It is the foundation for developing an
   adaptation pathways plan or framework Agreement that records priority actions in the short-
   term and plausible pathways into the future given the risks faced by the community. This is a
   living agreement that guides partners in working together to adapt as circumstances, needs and
   capabilities change over time.
3. Embedding adaptation is ‘messy’. Planning and implementation are not sequential but an
   entangled mix of planning, action, reflection, adjustment and yet more action, planning, etc.
4. Enduring community-based adaptive capacity is enabled by institutionalised local government-
   tangata whenua climate action partnerships. For example, the Horizons Manawatū-Whanganui
   Climate Action Joint Committee – a representative body of tangata whenua and local
   government Mayors and Chief Executives – prioritised the region’s two case study communities
   with which we partnered in this project. This led to signed agreements to work together.
5. Aligning adaptation planning and practice across Territorial Local Authorities and Regional
   Councils is key to building community-based adaptive capacity. This means having consistent
   and complementary information on local hazards and vulnerability as well as enabling support
   for community-based adaptation action.
6. Local government support is foundational for building community-based adaptive capacity.
   This means prioritising Long Term Plan funding support as well as in-kind staff support,
   community-specific liaison, and championing by elected members and senior officials.
7. The absence of an enabling adaptation legislative and policy setting is debilitating for
   community-based adaptation, hampering action by residents, local government, and tangata
   whenua. This is especially concerning in the face of escalating risk, rising insurance premiums
   and the prospect of ‘insurance retreat’ after many years of ‘talk’ about the introduction of an
   ‘adaptation law’ and how to share equitably the costs of major adaptation interventions,
   including planned relocation of at-risk communities.
8. Build shared understanding about natural hazard risk, adaptation options and plausible
   pathways into the future. This helps to facilitate joint problem-solving and adaptive capabilities
   within and between all governance actors, founded on Te Ao Māori, local knowledge, robust
   science, and professional expertise. This is an ongoing social learning process.
9. Priority attention needs to be focused on supporting those most exposed and vulnerable to
   climate-compounded risks. Risk is a product of exposure to natural hazards and the social
   vulnerability of communities. For too long, attention has centred on the hazard dimension of
   risk. Much more focused attention needs to centre on better understanding and addressing
   susceptibility to harm.
10. Independent ‘critical friends’, potentially including university-based action researchers, can
    play a vital mediation and/ or facilitation role in building adaptation partnerships between key
    governance actors, especially where there is a lack of trust. However, a ‘research framing’ –
    even if well-intentioned and action-oriented – can sometimes be seen to be of little practical
    value and therefore unnecessary or inappropriate. Critical friends need to develop strong bonds
    of trust with all involved in adaptation if they are to play a constructive role. And they need to
    have real-world expertise in engagement processes to fulfil this role. More generally, enabling
    collaborative adaptation proceeds at the pace it takes to build trust between adaptation
    governance actors. Short-term projects are seldom adequate for the ongoing contributions that
    will be required to build enduring collaborative partnerships.

A policy brief developed alongside this summary can be found here.

Other resources from the project can be found on the project page here.

Necessity is the mother of invention

We’ve all heard it –responding to challenges makes people think differently and approach problem solving with new and exciting ideas. In the case of climate change, the Innovations for Climate Adaptation research team found that in “place-based” organisations – that is mana whenua groups and Councils – people were just “getting on with it” in the absence of robust legislative and policy frameworks.

Where “there’s nothing to tell us what to do”, mana whenua and councils are discovering, inspiring others and innovating their way to climate adaptation solutions as they go along. This research programme in the Deep South National Science Challenge was a way to capture and explore some of those innovations.

Unashamedly grounded

For many mana whenua groups, the time to adapt is now. They have people and places disproportionately threatened by climate change, and rich taonga and mātauranga to protect for future generations. Janet Stephenson, one of the Innovations team suggests that the strong approach from mana whenua is partly because they come to this mahi with such an “unashamedly grounded” set of principles.

The core of the discovery work by the team was six-monthly interviews with participants who could track and report on the success of their innovations and initiatives over time. Janet notes that many of these were based in deep connection with Papatuānuku and the understanding that climate change would be yet another disruptor of the health of te taiao. “Māori communities we worked with all had a holistic response; let us strengthen and restore te taiao: if we have clean water and if we have mahinga kai that are productive and ngāhere that are protected and healthy, and our wetlands are doing what they should be, our communities will be protected.”

Strong networks

Like so many projects in the Deep South Challenge – and especially those with a strong Te Ao Māori focus – Innovations relied heavily on its networks. These networks were able to be nurtured and strengthened in regular kōrero and hui that brought them all together to share experiences, which Janet says people took “visceral enjoyment” from. Having that reason to come together, to connect and to talk about the work that was happening at a community level, helped with purpose and direction.

But it wasn’t only necessary to explore what was working. Many who engaged with this project were aware of the big gap at a political and legislative level in terms of the structures and policy to support climate change adaptation for communities. Part of the success of this project for Janet and the team was being able to engage with those issues and to have frank interactions with Councils and others in positions of power, to think about how climate change adaptation could be “just and robust”. This included a co-developed submission to the Select Committee on climate change adaptation signed by representatives of all of the Māori research partners.

As a result of this project, these networks are now assisted by a range of tools and a robust knowledge base. The team’s Kete Whakaaro product – “a basket of ideas from mana whenua who are leading their own climate change adaptation” – is one of these. It’s arranged so that users can read testimony and explore the innovations and principles already at work in community climate change adaptation.

What next?

Councils need to give mana whenua the space and support; they must honour Te Tiriti and ensure that communities can exercise tino rangatiratanga. The Innovations team would say this is about really listening to these communities, and giving credibility to their ideas and approaches – and the long history and mātauranga that underpins them.

The team also advocates for the idea that if funding was provided to communities to self- govern, that relatively small but consistent contributions could have a significant impact. It wasn’t always a question of money, either: sometimes offering office space, or arranging for people to make connections was critical.

It’s often local government who are in the most structurally able position to help mana whenua communities and the key theme of relationships comes up again and again. The team’s hopes for the legacy of this project is therefore pretty simple: maintaining connections. From there, so much innovation flows.

See a video series developed for this project, here and here.

Project Summary from the research project “Mana Rangatahi: Climate change decision-making“

Mana Rangatahi was an action research and leadership project/pilot study working with two kura in high risk flooding areas of Ōtuatahi Christchurch.

Our approach to climate adaptation education with Indigenous young people began by recognising that Māori and Pacific young people already have pre-existing strengths and capabilities that can uniquely contribute to addressing complex climate challenges. This is an important starting point, because young citizens and Indigenous youth in particular face disproportionate risks and impacts from climate change.

Problem solving and leadership

The study focused on ways to develop the problem solving skills and leadership capability of rangatahi aged 12-14 years, though intergenerational support, particularly using  storytelling and action research to reinforce and amplify the leadership capabilities of young people. Supporting rangatahi to see themselves as part of a network of distributed leadership, or people you can count on,  is also important, because processes of colonisation have disrupted networks of collective leadership.

Additionally, for the past three decades, climate related education has largely focused on the acquisition of scientific knowledge and encouraging individual behaviour change. While scientific knowledge is essential for tackling climate change, that approach centres on the ‘problem’ rather than young people’s capability to generate solutions and the increasing practice and significance of indigenous communities regenerating self-determining capabilities for decision making as an expression of tino rangatiratanga.

Wānanga

This pilot study trialled wānanga or talanoa with two schools, that took place in three steps, with each step building on the one before.

The first step identified community leadership strengths, through intergenerational storytelling methods including  pūrākau and ‘ei making. This storytelling process, gave context about taking action in the past and insights about challenges and achievements shared by matua with rangatahi.

Step two scaffolded from this understanding of cultural strengths to support young people to identify their own preferred leadership styles and sources of community  support for problem-solving using digital mapping and illustration. Step three involved gaining understanding the science of climate and visiting sites where this science had been applied in practical problem-solving situations to tackle local flooding issues in the community.

Finally, students were supported to put their learning into action through identifying changes they wanted to see in their community and learning how to lobby and take action, presenting their challenges and suggestions for action to local government and other community partners and developing plans to implement these changes.

Study success and findings

The study highlights the power of cultural, strength-based intergenerational support (including story-telling, leadership role modelling and mentoring). It highlights the importance of scaffolding Indigenous young people into positions of  collective responsibility to better address  ‘wicked problems’ such as climate injustice within a broader intergenerational journey of resilience and reclamation. We argue that intergenerational storytelling is essential to support Indigenous young people but the point is not that indigenous young people ‘solve’ or ‘adapt’ to climate change, rather that they chart Indigenous futures, which by necessity must engage with climate challenges.

In this context, we suggest that paying attention to relationships in which these stories are shared, is also essential. An ongoing ethical research commitment to supporting relationships between young people and their wider community, environments and spiritual context is vital. 

Over three final webinars we traversed everything from the importance of intergenerational eeling to snowfall in Kā Tiritiri o te Moana (The Southern Alps). If you’re curious to know how researchers have pushed boundaries in climate adaptation research you can re-watch our final series here.

Climate adaptation through the eyes and ears of our mokopuna

Rangatahi are pivotal agents of change in climate adaptation. Their unique perspectives, innovative ideas, and energetic advocacy are driving significant shifts in both policy and grassroots initiatives aimed at creating sustainable futures.

In this webinar, we hear about the research done by Te Morehu Whenua and the ways in which they have drawn forward the voices of rangatahi and their powerful intergenerational approach. We also get insight into the Toi Rito Toi Rangatira rangatahi climate leadership programme and hear from rangatahi themselves about their experiences and aspirations for climate adaptation in their communities.

Drawing on their cultural narratives, values, and the power of collective action, we learn how rangatahi are raising awareness about the impacts of climate change and actively contributing to the development of climate solutions that are connected to their communities and whānau.

We are excited to hear from the research team members, directly from rangatahi themselves, in the first of our webinar series Te Kawa o Te Ora.

Innovating through the winds of change

“A treasured kite lost to the winds brings much joy when found again.”

He taonga tuku iho, ko te manu tukutuku, kua ngaro atu kē ki ngā hau e whā, kua whakamīharo ā tātou nei ngākau kia puta ake ki te whaiao, ki te ao mārama.

Responding to a changing climate includes asking, what tools do we have that can be repurposed? And it means taking care not to forget the importance of joy. As climate change continues to make itself felt, mana whenua communities are increasingly finding themselves reading the signs in their shifting physical and spiritual worlds and adapting on the fly.

Join us in conversation with:

Jude Cornelius (Ngā Rauru, Ngāruahine, Ngāti Ruanui, Te Ātihaunui-a-pāpārangi, Te Whakatōhea)
Jude serves as the Pou Taiao for Te Kāhui o Rauru, bringing over 20 years of experience in education and a range of Pūtaiao kaupapa.

Janet Stephenson
Janet is a research professor at the Centre for Sustainability, an interdisciplinary research centre at the University of Otago. Two of her current research projects are with Māori communities that are leading innovative responses to climate change challenges.

Mahuru Wilcox (Ngāti Awa, Ngāti Ranginui)
Mahuru is passionate about supporting iwi and hapū to engage in research that enables wellbeing of communities and their taiao. Her background is in freshwater and wetland ecology (MSc), and she now works within a Māori research team at Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research.

Anne-Maree McKay (Ngāti Mutunga, Ngāti Tama)
Anne-Maree works as Pou Taiao for Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Mutunga in Urenui. Her passion is to connect Ngāti Mutunga whanau back to their whenua through mahinga kai monitoring and other biodiversity mahi in the taiao.

Evolution of Climate Adaptation Research; Back to the Future

In Evolution of Climate Adaptation Research; Back to the Future, we acknowledge breadth and expertise of climate research across Aotearoa by talking to a small group of researchers who are pushing the boundaries. From how glaciers are responding to climate, to the way Te Tiriti and climate change intersect in our health system responses, to our abilities to access home insurance for our whare, and myriad ways children are engaging with climate action, we take a look at some of the challenges we face with our changing climate, and how our researchers are finding ways to contribute to a resilient climate future for all of Aotearoa.

This webinar will be the final webinar of the Deep South Challenge. We acknowledge all those who have been with us throughout the last 10 years, and who have been and are continuing to work to support informed, equitable and effective adaptation throughout Aotearoa New Zealand.

Join us in conversation with:

Lauren Vargo

For as long as Lauren can remember, she’s loved being outdoors and exploring the natural world. After discovering Geology in university, Lauren enjoyed learning about and studying the Earth, especially the icy parts. She now investigates questions in glaciology and climate science, with current research including monitoring how glaciers in Aotearoa New Zealand are changing, and investigating the impacts of climate change on snow and glaciers in New Zealand and globally.

Kenny Bell

Kenny is an economic researcher who focuses on environmental issues relating to the primary sector, including climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and water quality. He holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of California at Berkeley and is currently a Ngā Puanga Pūtaiao fellow.

MahMah Timoteo

MahMah Timoteo identifies as a fat, queer, Cook Island vā’ine. They are an Environmental Anthropologist who has just recently completed their PhD thesis through the University of Canterbury. Their thesis explored the lived experiences of Pacific peoples and their navigation of climate change spaces within Aotearoa. They are a researcher and lecturer whose interests lie in fat liberation, Pacific peoples and community, climate change, and decolonisation. Alongside this, MahMah takes great pride in advocating for their communities in spaces that they have created online which work to disrupt and dismantle oppressive systems that continue to harm our most marginalised communities. 

“Modelling clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry” – project summary by Laura Revell

Earth system models are computational representations of the physical, chemical and biogeochemical processes that occur on Earth. Spanning the global atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice, Earth system models allow us to develop the best possible picture of how physical climate change could play out and affect us here in Aotearoa New Zealand.

The establishment of an Earth system modelling community has been a great success of the DSC. Developing this community took time because Earth system models are highly complex. These are not tools that even a trained scientist can pick up and use right away. Learning how to run them – and better still, improve them – takes equal amounts of skill and time and about ten times as much patience.

Fully maintaining an Earth system model involves large teams of scientists and scientific programmers. Through the DSC we established a partnership with the UK Met Office, who have a world-leading model. In return, we’ve provided improvements to the model targeted over the Southern Ocean. This region of the world is important for determining New Zealand’s climate and weather extremes. However, because it is so remote – especially relative to the major climate modelling centres which are based in the Northern Hemisphere – it is poorly understood, leading to poor-quality simulations of the atmosphere and ocean.

New Zealand’s unique atmosphere

New Zealand’s air and surrounding atmosphere is unique. It is largely free of human-created sources of air pollution seen in many other countries: of 134 countries ranked by air quality in 2023, New Zealand came in at 129 (this is a list we want to be near the bottom of!). However, New Zealand’s air is heavily influenced by the ocean. Breaking waves provide a near-constant source of particulates or “aerosols” to the atmosphere. Smaller than the width of a human hair, aerosols can be transported by winds over large distances. Aerosols originating from the ocean are measured in air throughout New Zealand.

Although they are small, aerosols play an important role in climate change. Like miniature “disco balls”, they scatter sunlight back to space. They also seed cloud formation. Clouds play an important role in the climate system: some cool the surface, while others trap heat in the lower atmosphere. The type of cloud formed is partly influenced by the local aerosol environment. We know for example that clouds over the Southern Ocean are influenced by sulfate aerosol and marine organics. These compounds originate from the surface layer of the ocean, which teems with microscopic life. Gases and particulates emitted from the surface layer can have important consequences for atmospheric composition and climate. Earth system models typically struggle to represent ocean-aerosol relationships accurately over the Southern Ocean, which could explain why the models struggle to represent clouds accurately here too.

A better Earth system model for New Zealand

Through the DSC we’ve worked with the observations team who made cloud and aerosol measurements on the Southern Ocean onboard the RV Tangaroa to understand the atmospheric processes occurring in our backyard and how we should represent them in our Earth system model. We’ve improved how we model aerosol precursors at the ocean surface, emissions of sea spray aerosol from breaking waves, cloud formation and atmospheric chemistry. Through related projects we’ve even leveraged our expertise in Earth system modelling to understand how emerging contaminants such as microplastics aloft in the atmosphere could affect Earth’s climate.

Thanks to our research we can produce more accurate climate change projections for New Zealand and surrounds. We’ve passed on model developments to our partners at the UK Met Office to include in future releases of the Earth system model, which, along with the UK and New Zealand, is used in Australia, South Korea, India and several other countries. In doing so, we’ve also lined up the next generation of Earth system modellers in New Zealand. Collaborations in cloud and aerosol modelling between NIWA and the University of Canterbury have supported the training of young scientists at undergraduate, postgraduate and postdoctoral level. As a community we are well placed to support the need for climate change information in a warming world.

Climate change is happening. The future of Earth system modelling in New Zealand is uncertain.

With the National Science Challenges ending, many New Zealand research communities are struggling to find continuity. With recent refocussing of research priorities at NIWA, much of the country’s expertise in Earth system modelling now sits within the universities, and we are considering how to retain capability long-term in a post-DSC world. Continuing our partnership with the Met Office will maintain access to state-of-the-art Earth system modelling capability. Funding wise, joining international consortia, such as via New Zealand’s recent agreement with Horizon Europe, may be a sensible way forward. Bi- and multi-lateral arrangements also have precedents and could be explored. Ultimately, the scale of 21^st century challenges associated with climate change and novel airborne pollutants means it is firmly in the national interest to ensure that modelling capability in New Zealand remains as robust as the climate challenges the model predicts.