Decision-making in our Uncertain World: Which, When and How

This guidance is for planners and decision-makers in local and central government, businesses, infrastructure management, and other sectors who are making decisions now for a future that is highly uncertain. In this document, we introduce and describe methods that can be used for making decisions despite uncertainty, and identify which methods can help answer different types of questions.  Where they are available, we provide examples from different sectors including land-use planning, infrastructure management, and coastal adaptation. 

The focus of this document is on approaches to support decision-making under uncertainty primarily for adaptation to climate change.  

This relates to a range of our research projects, including:

• Simplifying real options analysis for climate change adaptation
• Climate change: The cascade effect
• Making robust decisions about New Zealand’s water
• Tools for decision makers