New Zealand river hydrology under late 21st century climate change

Water (2020)

A climate-hydrology model cascade is used to project hydrological impacts of late 21st century climate change at 43,862 river locations across New Zealand for seven hydrological metrics.

Model projections show large swathes of non-significant effects across the country due to interannual variability and climate model uncertainty. Where changes are significant, mean annual, autumn, and spring flows increase along the west and south and decrease in the north and east.

The largest and most extensive increases occur during winter, while during summer decreasing flows outnumber increasing.

The mean annual flood increases more in the south, while mean annual low flows show both increases and decreases.