Journal or chapter

How uneven are changes to impact‐relevant climate hazards in a 1.5 °C world and beyond?

Geophysical Research Letters (2018)

Denoting a specific threshold of global mean temperatures as a target for avoiding damaging climate impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations in the magnitude of these impacts.

This study introduces a simple framework to quantify the magnitude of this heterogeneity in changing climate hazards at 1.5 °C of warming, using case studies of emergent increases in temperature and rainfall extremes.

By mapping how much warming is needed in one location to match the impacts of a fixed temperature threshold in another, this “temperature of equivalence” index is a flexible and straightforward tool which could provide support in prioritizing adaptation projects.


Near-term climate predictions for New Zealand