Interactions between increasing CO2 and Antarctic melt rates

Journal of Climate (2020)

Meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet is expected to increase the sea ice extent. However, such an expansion may be moderated by sea ice decline associated with global warming.

Here we investigate the relative balance of these two processes through experiments using the climate model HadGEM3-GC3.1, and compare these to two standard idealised CMIP6 experiments. Our results show that the decline in sea ice projected under scenarios of increasing CO2 may be inhibited by simultaneously increasing melt fluxes.

We find that Antarctic Bottom Water formation, projected to decline as CO2 increases, is likely to decline further with an increasing meltwater flux.